Oklahoma at Mississippi State
Oklahoma (3‑3) travels to Mississippi State (4‑2), with Oklahoma favored by 3. Oklahoma’s offense is at the 2nd percentile on explosive plays; Mississippi State’s defense is at the 89th.
How they got here
Last three games
Oklahoma · 3-3
Rated 17th in our preseason ratings, 30th now, down 13 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Texas as a 7.5-point underdog.
W 51-0 vs UTEP #196 of 668
won by 51 as a 40.5-point favorite
Last three games
Mississippi State · 4-2
Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 79th now, up 53 spots.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Mississippi State, 87 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Oklahoma’s explosive plays against Mississippi State’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Mississippi State defense, 89th
Oklahoma’s rushing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
Oklahoma offense, 2nd percentile · Mississippi State defense, 64th
Mississippi State’s EPA/play against Oklahoma’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 61st percentile · Oklahoma defense, 93rd
What’s at stake
Oklahoma
- Oklahoma needs 3 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 67% to get there with a win here, 34% with a loss.
- Oklahoma is a crown program crossing leagues and still carrying the crown.
Mississippi State
- Mississippi State needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 89% with a loss.
- Mississippi State is still shaking off a 31-point loss.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Oklahoma
The chip · vs the national mediaEver since the leagues changed, the take has been that the Sooners showed up late and out of their depth; the fanbase points to a Playoff berth in year three and says the doubters got the answer, then chose not to hear it because the last half went the wrong way.
What this game touches
The 34-24 collapse. The Sooners reached the 12-team Playoff in 2025 and led Alabama 17-0 early — then surrendered 27 straight points and lost 34-24 at home, dropping Brent Venables to 0-5 in the postseason and turning a vindicating year into one half the fanbase can't unsee.
Mississippi State
The chip · vs big brotherFans are tired of being treated as the lesser team in their own state — a different school with a different identity, an engineering university with the loudest crowd in the league, told every November that the Egg Bowl is the rivalry that defines them.
What this game touches
The Lebby holding pattern. Jeff Lebby went 2-10 in 2024, then 5-8 in 2025 — his first SEC win didn't come until November 1 against Arkansas, and the year ended with a Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Wake Forest. A loyal base is being asked, again, to wait for the floor to lift.
Best players
Oklahoma
- Owen Heinecke (LB) · 45 tackles
- Isaiah Sategna (WR) · 414 receiving yards
- John Mateer (QB) · 1,308 passing yards — Heisman odds: 13th (+2800)
Mississippi State
- Anthony Evans III (WR) · 614 receiving yards
- Tyler Lockhart (LB) · 38 tackles
- Kamario Taylor (QB) · 1,450 passing yards — Heisman odds: 40th (+10000)
The betting line, and the fans
Mississippi State fans are in a better mood than Oklahoma fans (61st vs 3rd among FBS fanbases), even with Oklahoma favored.
Oklahoma favored by 3 · Total 46.5
Oklahoma by 3: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Oklahoma’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Oklahoma at Mississippi State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · SEC Network · Davis Wade Stadium.
- 76°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 12 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Davis Wade Stadium: noon Saturdays score 85, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 85, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Mississippi State is worth +3.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.
51% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (26-25 home, 14-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 508 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Mississippi State
- Wk 2Wat Minnesota38-13
- Wk 3Wat South Carolina41-34
- Wk 4Wvs Missouri31-24
- Wk 5Lvs Alabama23-56
- Wk 7Lat LSU0-31
Oklahoma
- Wk 2Lat Michigan10-17
- Wk 3Wvs New Mexico14-6
- Wk 4Lat Georgia13-41
- Wk 6Wvs Texas27-24
- Wk 7Lvs Kentucky13-21
Power rating by week
Oklahoma is rated 6.6 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Oklahoma.
Spread: +1.5 → +3
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Mississippi State8th2-2
- Oklahoma11th1-2