Vanderbilt beats Austin Peay 28-9

Team pages: Austin Peay · Vanderbilt

Austin Peay1-19
Vanderbilt1-028Final
Sat, Sep 5 · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tenn. · Crowd 35,000SECN+

Vanderbilt beat Austin Peay 28-9.

We had Vanderbilt favored. It won.

Next: Austin Peay beat Morehead State 63-7, Sat Sep 12

Next: Vanderbilt beat Delaware 35-26, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Vanderbilt an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Vanderbilt was a 29.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Favored the whole way: Vanderbilt never fell below 93%.

Austin Peay never had better than a 7% chance.

FinalVanderbilt 28-9 Austin PeayVanderbilt wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfVanderbiltWon28-9Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q497% at halfVanderbiltWon28-9Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfVanderbiltLowest 0%Lost9-28Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q43% at halfVanderbiltLowest 0%Lost9-28Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Vanderbilt’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Vanderbilt -29.5), at 98% for Vanderbilt (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Vanderbilt’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 6:57Parson 24-yd TD pass to Harper, blockedAustin Peay goes ahead 6-3Q1, 6:57 · Vanderbilt 3, Austin Peay 6▼4%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 97% to 93%▼4%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 97% to 93%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 6:21Berlowitz 7-yd TD runVanderbilt leads 15-6Q2, 6:21 · Vanderbilt 15, Austin Peay 615-6score after the play15-6score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q3, 5:24Alexander 18-yd TD runVanderbilt leads 21-9Q3, 5:24 · Vanderbilt 21, Austin Peay 921-9score after the play21-9score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q4, 14:50Broxton 27-yd punt return TDVanderbilt leads 28-9Q4, 14:50 · Vanderbilt 28, Austin Peay 9▲2%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%Vanderbilt’s chance to win, 98% to 100%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q4, 7:21Parson sacked for a 4-yd lossQ4, 7:21 · Vanderbilt 28, Austin Peay 928-9score after the play28-9score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Vanderbilt scored on 4 of its 8 drives; Austin Peay on 2 of its 10.

Vanderbilt’s drives are teal, Austin Peay’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Vanderbilt: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Field goalAustin Peay: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownVanderbilt: Field goal, from 92 yards out to 19Field goalQ2Austin Peay: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntVanderbilt: Touchdown, from 88 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 33Field goalVanderbilt: Punt, from 76 yards out to 55PuntAustin Peay: End of half, from 74 yards out to 75End of halfQ3Austin Peay: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 45DownsVanderbilt: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownAustin Peay: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntVanderbilt: Punt, from 64 yards out to 59PuntAustin Peay: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 80 yards out to 82Punt TDQ4Austin Peay: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntVanderbilt: Turned over on downs, from 78 yards out to 30DownsAustin Peay: Punt, from 70 yards out to 61PuntVanderbilt: Punt, from 91 yards out to 81PuntAustin Peay: End of game, from 75 yards out to 68End of game

The loudest stretch

The biggest reaction came once the game was well underway.

  1. early
  2. middle
  3. late
  4. final stretch
How we know

We look at when the most different fans were posting during the game thread, then name the part of the game it falls in. Only threads with a clear peak and enough fans get a word.

Box score

Vanderbilt 28, Austin Peay 9

Austin Peay covered +29.5 by 10.5. The total, 37, stayed under 57.5.

Austin PeayVanderbiltTotal yardsAustin Peay 178Vanderbilt 396178396Passing yardsAustin Peay 116Vanderbilt 209116209Rushing yardsAustin Peay 62Vanderbilt 18762187First downsAustin Peay 11Vanderbilt 201120TurnoversAustin Peay 0Vanderbilt 000Time of possessionAustin Peay 24:13Vanderbilt 35:4724:1335:47
Team totalsAustin PeayVanderbilt
Total yards178396
Passing12 of 21, 116 yds18 of 25, 209 yds
Rushing25 for 62 yds38 for 187 yds
First downs1120
Third down1 of 104 of 12
Fourth down2 of 32 of 3
Turnovers00
Penalties3 for 25 yds9 for 73 yds
Time of possession24:1335:47

Austin Peay leaders

  • Passing Chris Parson 12 of 21, 116 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Courtland Simmons 5 for 26 yds; Corey Richardson 2 for 19 yds
  • Receiving Marvin Sims 6 for 55 yds; Denver Harper 1 for 24 yds, 1 TD

Vanderbilt leaders

  • Passing Blaze Berlowitz 11 of 16, 149 yds
  • Rushing Sedrick Alexander 10 for 60 yds, 1 TD; Blaze Berlowitz 11 for 45 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Junior Sherrill 4 for 70 yds; Kayleb Barnett 3 for 31 yds

Feels like 91° to 104° through the game

97° at kickoff · feels like 91° to 104° · no rain recorded

A feels-like 104° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 104°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 104°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 66 other games played at FirstBank Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 77°, with about 7 in 10 games between 71° and 87°.

September game-day temperatures at FirstBank Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Vanderbilt favoredAustin Peay favored100%Win chanceVanderbiltRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°110°feels like 93°air 88°Thunder reported
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Vanderbilt favoredAustin Peay favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F80°110°feels like 93°air 88°Thunder reported

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:52 left6:03 p.m.
Austin Peay 0, Vanderbilt 0 · Vanderbilt 98% to win
no rain · 96°, feels like 103°
Alexander 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at John C Tune airport, 5.1 miles away, and Nashville Metro airport, 6.9 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Austin Peay · 7-5

Rated 118th in our preseason ratings, 118th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 44-45 @ Tarleton State #72 of 667

lost by 1 as an 18.5-point underdog

W 30-16 vs Samford #246 of 667

won by 14 as a 25.5-point favorite

W 41-38 vs Central Arkansas #191 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

L 17-33 @ Southern Utah #135 of 667

lost by 16 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 56-28 vs North Alabama #232 of 667

won by 28 as a 19.5-point favorite

L 20-34 @ Eastern Kentucky #156 of 667

lost by 14 as a 10-point favorite

W 44-30 vs West Georgia #161 of 667

W 42-10 vs Utah Tech #218 of 667

won by 32 as a 14-point favorite

L 31-45 @ Abilene Christian #129 of 667

lost by 14 as a 2-point favorite

W 56-7 vs Morehead State #252 of 667

won by 49 as a 25.5-point favorite

L 6-28 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 22 as a 46.5-point underdog

Austin Peay lost 6-28 at Georgia. Chance to win started at under 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 34-14 @ Middle Tennessee #196 of 667

won by 20 as a 16.5-point underdog

Austin Peay won 34-14 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 9%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Vanderbilt · 10-3

Rated 45th in our preseason ratings.

L 27-34 vs IowaTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite

Vanderbilt lost 27-34 vs Iowa. Chance to win started at 67%, low 2%, high 67%.

W 45-24 @ TennesseeTop 25 #17 of 667

won by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

Vanderbilt won 45-24 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 39%, low 15%, high better than 99%.

W 45-17 vs Kentucky #37 of 667

won by 28 as a 6.5-point favorite

Vanderbilt won 45-17 vs Kentucky. Chance to win started at 76%, low 70%, high better than 99%.

W 45-38 vs AuburnTop 25 #20 of 667

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

Vanderbilt won 45-38 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 73%, low 17%, high better than 99%.

L 31-34 @ TexasTop 25 #13 of 667

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Vanderbilt lost 31-34 at Texas. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 17-10 vs MissouriTop 25 #14 of 667

won by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite

Vanderbilt won 17-10 vs Missouri. Chance to win started at 69%, low 43%, high better than 99%.

W 31-24 vs LSUTop 25 #17 of 667

won by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

Vanderbilt won 31-24 vs LSU. Chance to win started at 64%, low 50%, high better than 99%.

L 14-30 @ AlabamaTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 16 as a 13.5-point underdog

Vanderbilt lost 14-30 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 48%.

W 55-35 vs Utah State #99 of 667

won by 20 as a 24.5-point favorite

Vanderbilt won 55-35 vs Utah State. Chance to win started at 96%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

W 70-21 vs Georgia State #123 of 667

won by 49 as a 26.5-point favorite

Vanderbilt won 70-21 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 96%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

W 31-7 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #21 of 667

won by 24 as a 2.5-point underdog

Vanderbilt won 31-7 at South Carolina. Chance to win started at 32%, low 31%, high better than 99%.

W 44-20 @ Virginia Tech #60 of 667

won by 24 as a 2.5-point underdog

Vanderbilt won 44-20 at Virginia Tech. Chance to win started at 35%, low 14%, high better than 99%.

W 45-3 vs Charleston Southern #236 of 667

won by 42 as a 38.5-point favorite

Vanderbilt won 45-3 vs Charleston Southern. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

The series

Vanderbilt leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 2013 · Vanderbilt has won the last 2

  • 2015Vanderbilt 47-7
  • 2013Vanderbilt 38-3

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Vanderbilt’s chances here.

50-50Model · 88%Line · 99%Austin PeayVanderbilt

Vanderbilt favored by 29.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Vanderbilt by 29.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Austin Peay.

opened −30.5now −29.5

The total fell 4 points.

opened 61.5now 57.5

Spread: −30.5 → −29.5 · Total: 61.5 → 57.5

The books’ cut: 3.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 96° at kickoff.

Austin Peay at Vanderbilt · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · FirstBank Stadium, Nashville

  • 96°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 60weather score, Rough
  • 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At FirstBank Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 73, against 60 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 39, Harsh
  • noon: 37, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 38, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 38, Harsh
  • 4 pm: 42, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 60, Rough (this game)
  • 7 pm: 73, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Vanderbilt is worth +1.1 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 7th percentile.

41% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (20-29 home, 10-33 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.0 at home vs. away over 100 games — outside the ±6.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 41 miles to get here.

Where next