The Zeitgeist List · coaching

James Franklin

Followed Bill O'Brien. James Franklin moved Penn State from Power Program II to Power Program I in 12 seasons.

The empire-builder
128–60
2011–now · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

He will not be available by NCAA perspective this weekend
Gobblercountry · · 2 days before Virginia Tech's 2026 opener
You guys all remember that Virginia Tech
FOX Sports
Even before the job was open, Virginia Tech I think had realized that what we had been doing for the last nine or 10 years hadn't worked
FOX Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 4th career season — faster than 37% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #215 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Vanderbilt, 3 seasons
+10.0
Regional Program II → National Program III.
Penn State, 12 seasons (active)
+8.0
Power Program II → Power Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Penn State2014–2025▼ 10.8ptVirginia Tech2026–2026– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Penn State11.1pt#106 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

10–17 against his rivals. Winless in 6 tries against Ryan Day.

Rivalry record
10–17
37.0% · 5 rivals
One-score games
30–30
50.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Ohio State1–910%
Pittsburgh3–175%
Tennessee1–150%
Missouri1–150%
The toughest matchup
vs. Ryan Day0–6
6 meetings, 2019–2024
’19 L’20 L’21 L · blew a 7-pt lead’22 L · blew a 5-pt lead’23 L’24 L · blew a 10-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 6-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
2–12 14.3%
Power Program
28–28 50.0%
National Program
30–11 73.2%
Regional Program
50–4 92.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.28
#62 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.55
#6 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2026–now
Virginia Tech
too new to grade yet

6th-best Virginia Tech tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Brent Pry (2022–2025).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
29
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
27
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+2
#11 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Ethan Grunkemeyer On3 modeled · $2,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 245 lbs
across 28 of 29 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+10.3 lbs
#10 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
So
#256 of 255 · less than most
Top states: PA (4), NJ (3), MA (2), FL (2), NC (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.0
position-weighted
Net
+6.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ethan Grunkemeyer (QB) from Penn State
Biggest loss: William Watson III (QB) to Massachusetts
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
80%
#8 of 243 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints
0–0
2014–now
Penn Statecaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program I
James Franklin moved Penn State from Power Program II to Power Program I in 12 seasons.

2nd-best Penn State tenure of 8 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+8.1 pts
#70 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+17.1 pts
#40 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bill O'Brien (2012–2013).

Season201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record7–67–611–311–29–411–24–57–611–210–313–34–3
PostseasonW bowlL bowlL bowlW CFPL bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#24#14#20#15#6#12#15#21#6#14#15#15
Style — pass rate
Pass rate52.448.742.050.442.341.743.252.746.344.441.641.6
Coordinators
OCJohn DonovanJohn DonovanJoe MoorheadJoe MoorheadRicky RahneRicky RahneKirk Ciarrocca / Tyler BowenMike YurcichMike YurcichJa'Juan Seider / Mike Yurcich / Ty HowleAndy Kotelnicki / Ja'Juan Seider / Ty HowleAndy Kotelnicki / Ty Howle
DCBob ShoopBob ShoopBrent Pry / Tim BanksBrent Pry / Tim BanksBrent Pry / Tim BanksBrent Pry / Tim BanksBrent Pry / Tim BanksBrent Pry / Anthony PoindexterManny Diaz / Anthony PoindexterManny Diaz / Anthony PoindexterTom Allen / Anthony PoindexterJim Knowles / Anthony Poindexter
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense43192945078673380859785
Defense976368628573739297989874
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%53.447.138.046.045.437.039.448.839.341.139.041.3
Red-zone pass%46.754.437.541.429.829.340.260.040.043.938.526.5
4th-down go%opp. territory14.022.925.528.225.531.750.038.046.238.940.550.0
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
29
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
72
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-43
#161 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 230 lbs
across 22 of 29 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.0 lbs
#95 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#97 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: PA (5), MD (3), NJ (3), GA (2), AL (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
62.2
position-weighted
Net
-9.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: A.J. Harris (CB) from Georgia
Biggest loss: Beau Pribula (QB) to Missouri
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: John Donovan → Joe Moorhead · 2016the offense leveled up
17th pct93rd pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 50.2% → 42.0% (-8.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 65% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Joe Moorhead → Ricky Rahne · 2018the offense collapsed across the change
93rd pct64th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 42.0% → 41.2% (-0.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 59% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Ricky Rahne → Kirk Ciarrocca / co-Tyler Bowen · 2020
78th pct67th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 37.0% → 39.4% (+2.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 79% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Kirk Ciarrocca / co-Tyler Bowen → Mike Yurcich · 2021
67th pct33rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.4% → 48.8% (+9.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 84% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Bob Shoop → Brent Pry / co-Tim Banks · 2016the defense slipped
80th pct65th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Brent Pry / co-Tim Banks → Brent Pry / co-Anthony Poindexter · 2021
73rd pct92nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brent Pry / co-Anthony Poindexter → Manny Diaz / co-Anthony Poindexter · 2022
92nd pct97th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Manny Diaz / co-Anthony Poindexter → Tom Allen / co-Anthony Poindexter · 2024
98th pct98th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
222 lbs
6′3″ avg · #133 of 767 · more than most
Running back
217 lbs
5′11″ avg · #104 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #261 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
255 lbs
6′5″ avg · #68 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
316 lbs
6′5″ avg · #118 of 779 · more than most
D-line
299 lbs
6′3″ avg · #112 of 753 · more than most
Edge
257 lbs
6′4″ avg · #77 of 188 · a typical amount
Linebacker
231 lbs
6′2″ avg · #249 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #395 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
202 lbs
6′1″ avg · #62 of 346 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
75%
#28 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
83%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Boston College 31–30 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2015: Lost to Georgia 17–24 Taxslayer Bowl2016: Lost to USC 49–52 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual2017: Beat Washington 35–28 CFP2018: Lost to Kentucky 24–27 Vrbo Citrus Bowl2019: Beat Memphis 53–39 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2021: Lost to Arkansas 10–24 Outback Bowl2022: Beat Utah 35–21 Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential2023: Lost to Ole Miss 25–38 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2024: Beat SMU 38–10 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2024: Beat Boise State 31–14 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl2024: Lost to Notre Dame 24–27 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl2025: Beat Clemson 22–10 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

70 NFL Draft picks: Allen Robinson (2014), DaQuan Jones (2014), John Urschel (2014), Donovan Smith (2015), Adrian Amos (2015), Jesse James (2015), Austin Johnson (2016), Christian Hackenberg (2016) + 62 more

5 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Jaquan Brisker (2021), Olu Fashanu (2023), Abdul Carter (2024), Tyler Warren (2024), Olaivavega Ioane (2025)

AI Narratives — “Penn State's 7-6 Season: A Mixed Bag” and 13 more on the team page.

104–45
2011–2013
Vanderbiltcaretakerborderline
Regional Program III → National Program III
James Franklin moved Vanderbilt from Regional Program III to National Program III in 3 seasons.

6th-best Vanderbilt tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Followed Robbie Caldwell (2010–2010) · succeeded by Derek Mason (2014–2020).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

7 NFL Draft picks: Casey Hayward (2012), Tim Fugger (2012), Zachary Stacy (2013), Ryan Seymour (2013), Jordan Matthews (2014), Wesley Johnson (2014), Dre Hal (2014)

24–15

Defining games during this era

2017 Rose Bowl · USC 52, Penn State 492024 Orange Bowl quarter · Notre Dame 27, Penn State 242024 Big Ten Championship · Oregon 45, Penn State 372024 12-team CFP first-round · Penn State 38, SMU 10