Virginia Tech at Clemson
Virginia Tech (5‑2) travels to Clemson (4‑2), with Clemson favored by 2.5. The model gives Clemson a 62% shot. Clemson’s offense is at the 8th percentile on success rate; Virginia Tech’s defense is at the 84th.
How they got here
Last three games
Virginia Tech · 5-2
Rated 51st in our preseason ratings, 52nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Clemson · 4-2
Rated 11th in our preseason ratings, 41st now, down 30 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 37-0 vs Charleston Southern #194 of 668
won by 37 as a 42.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Clemson’s success rate against Virginia Tech, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Clemson’s success rate against Virginia Tech’s defense
Clemson offense, 8th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 84th
Clemson’s rushing EPA against Virginia Tech’s defense
Clemson offense, 34th percentile · Virginia Tech defense, 82nd
What’s at stake
Virginia Tech
- Virginia Tech needs 1 more win in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 96% with a loss.
- Virginia Tech hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2021.
Clemson
- Clemson is ranked #23, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Clemson is coming off a 37-point win.
The series
Clemson leads the series 23-11-1
35 meetings since 1906 · Clemson has won the last 7
- 2024Clemson 24-14
- 2020Clemson 45-10
- 2017Clemson 31-17
- 2016 · neutral siteClemson 42-35
- 2012Clemson 38-17
Each line is Clemson’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Virginia Tech
The chip · vs the national mediaHokie fans are tired of being written up as a faded name, a program whose best days are spoken about in the past tense. They say the foundation never left — it just needed a coach who could finally use it.
What this game touches
The 0-3 collapse that ended the Pry era. Virginia Tech opened 2025 with three straight losses — including a home defeat to Old Dominion — its worst start in nearly four decades, and fired Brent Pry the next day. The Hokies limped to 3-9 under an interim staff while the crowd at Lane Stadium booed a program that used to terrify people.
Clemson
The chip · vs the national mediaThe coastal panels never believed a champion could be raised in the upstate pines; the fanbase says they wrote the obituary in 2011 and again every down year, and Clemson built two titles answering it. The doubt in 2025 just sounds like an old song played loud.
What this game touches
The 2025 unravel. A preseason No. 4 that Swinney said could go 16-0 finished 7-6 — Clemson's fewest wins since 2010 — as Cade Klubnik's Heisman buzz collapsed into a fourth-round NFL exit, and Clemson sent nine players to the 2026 draft while winning only seven games.
Best players
Virginia Tech
- Que'Sean Brown (WR) · 616 receiving yards
- Ethan Grunkemeyer (QB) · 1,984 passing yards — Heisman odds: 55th (+20000)
- Jeffrey Overton Jr. (RB) · 613 rushing yards
Clemson
- Corey Myrick (S) · 43 tackles
- Sammy Brown (LB) · 40 tackles
- Jeremiah Alexander (LB) · 39 tackles
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Virginia Tech: Ethan Grunkemeyer (1,984 passing yards) and Jeffrey Overton Jr. (613 rushing yards).
The spread has moved 4.0 points toward Clemson since opening (+1.5 → −2.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Clemson fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (19th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Clemson favored by 2.5 · Total 49.5
Clemson by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Clemson’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
Virginia Tech at Clemson · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7 pm ET · ESPN · Memorial Stadium.
- 57°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 17 mphwind gusts
- 95weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 91, 3:30 pm 90, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 91, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 90, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Clemson is worth +1.7 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile.
82% at home, 75% on the road against FBS opponents (40-9 home, 30-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 222 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Clemson
- Wk 2Wvs Georgia Southern22-7
- Wk 3Wvs North Carolina28-20
- Wk 4Wat California24-10
- Wk 5Lvs Miami13-41
- Wk 7Wvs Charleston Southern37-0
Virginia Tech
- Wk 3Wat Maryland35-26
- Wk 4Wat Boston College21-14
- Wk 5Lvs Pittsburgh33-35
- Wk 6Lat California20-25
- Wk 7Wvs Georgia Tech34-24
Power rating by week
Clemson is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Clemson.
Spread: +1.5 → −2.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Clemson6th2-1
- Virginia Tech8th2-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Clemson 31, Virginia Tech 17Sep 30, 2017
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2016.