Bill Belichick

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

• ▲ Hotter
  $20.8M buyout · 2.1× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
• ▲ Hotter
  4-8 over his previous season here
• ▼ Cooler
  Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates

  (why?)

  Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-2 after 6 games

5% pushed out over results · of 590 coaches

Were in year 2, after 6 games

5% pushed out over results · of 479 coaches

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.