Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee (4‑4) hosts Western Kentucky (3‑5). The market has Western Kentucky favored by 1.5. Middle Tennessee’s offense is at the 64th percentile on explosive plays; Western Kentucky’s defense is at the 13th.
This is 100 Miles of Hate — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Western Kentucky · 3-5
Rated 42nd in our preseason ratings, 101st now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 21-point win over Missouri State as a 1.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Middle Tennessee · 4-4
Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings, 167th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Florida International as a 10.5-point underdog.
W 27-20 vs Nevada No. 182 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: Middle Tennessee’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky, 51 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Middle Tennessee’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 64th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 13th
Middle Tennessee’s rushing EPA against Western Kentucky’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 39th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 11th
Middle Tennessee’s success rate against Western Kentucky’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 23rd percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 50th
What’s at stake
Western Kentucky
- Western Kentucky needs 3 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 49% to get there with a win here, 11% with a loss.
- Western Kentucky has won 7 straight in 100 Miles of Hate — a chance to extend it.
Middle Tennessee
- Middle Tennessee needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 84% to get there with a win here, 41% with a loss.
- Middle Tennessee has dropped 7 straight in 100 Miles of Hate — a chance to snap the skid.
The series
Western Kentucky leads the series 12-6
18 meetings since 2007 · Western Kentucky has won the last 7
- 2025Western Kentucky 42-26
- 2024Western Kentucky 49-21
- 2023Western Kentucky 31-10
- 2022Western Kentucky 35-17
- 2021Western Kentucky 48-21
Each line is Middle Tennessee’s chance to win through that meeting. Middle Tennessee is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Western Kentucky
The chip · vs the national mediaHilltopper Nation knows the joke — that people hear 'Kentucky football' and never think of Bowling Green. They say the program that wins eight or nine games like clockwork deserves more than to be the state's footnote, and they keep the receipts.
Middle Tennessee
The chip · vs the national mediaFans remember the Saturdays the Blue Raiders walked into a bigger program's stadium and won, and bristle that the national take treats Murfreesboro as background — a program that has, more than once, refused to play the part.
What this game touches
Life after Stockstill. Rick Stockstill ran the program for 18 years before being let go after 2023. Derek Mason has gone 3-9 in 2024 and 3-9 again in 2025 (2-6 Conference USA), a 6-18 start that left Murfreesboro wondering whether the steady-bowl era is gone for good.
Best players
Western Kentucky
- Jaylen Lewis (DB) · 64 tackles
- Kennon Loftin (LB) · 63 tackles
- Marvin Sims (WR) · 665 receiving yards
Middle Tennessee
- Korey Smith (LB) · 68 tackles
- Ashton Taylor (LB) · 48 tackles
- Cam'Ron Lacy (WR) · 510 receiving yards
What to watch
The spread has moved 3.0 points toward Western Kentucky since opening (−1.5 → +1.5).
The betting line, and the fans
Western Kentucky fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (79th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Western Kentucky favored by 1.5 · Total 52.5
Western Kentucky by 1.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Western Kentucky’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:30 pm ET · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 93.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Middle Tennessee is worth +5.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.
49% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (19-20 home, 16-38 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.5 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 78 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Middle Tennessee
- Wk 4Lat Jacksonville State13-23
- Wk 5Lat Kansas0-55
- Wk 7Wvs Delaware33-30
- Wk 8Wat Florida International26-23
- Wk 9Lvs Kennesaw State28-44
Western Kentucky
- Wk 4Wvs Mercyhurst52-7
- Wk 5Lat New Mexico State13-34
- Wk 6Wvs Missouri State34-13
- Wk 7Wat Sam Houston16-3
- Wk 9Lvs Delaware21-35
Power rating by week
Western Kentucky is rated 4.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Western Kentucky.
Spread: −1.5 → +1.5
The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Middle Tennessee4th2-2
- Western Kentucky5th2-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Western Kentucky 42, Middle Tennessee 26Nov 15, 2025
Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.