New Mexico State beats Western Kentucky 34-13
Team pages: Western Kentucky · New Mexico State
New Mexico State beat Western Kentucky 34-13. Share this game
We had Western Kentucky favored. New Mexico State won.
Next: Western Kentucky beat Missouri State 34-13, Thu Oct 8
Next: New Mexico State lost to Florida International 22-3, Wed Oct 7
Top comment in the game thread
I love being able to distinguish what individual fans are shouting in the stadium
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave New Mexico State a 32% chance, and the closing betting line (New Mexico State was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.
New Mexico State won by 21, after dipping to 50% in the first quarter.
Western Kentucky never had better than a 50% chance.
New Mexico State · Q2 8:36New Mexico State 34-13 Western Kentucky
New Mexico State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Western Kentucky 13-34 New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:554th and 2Tisdale incomplete to Burroughs, turnover on downsNew Mexico State 62% → 75% (+13)
- 2Q2 8:36InterceptionTisdale intercepted by Peters at the WKU45 and returned for a TD, New Mexico State leads 13-3New Mexico State 72% → 86% (+14)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 14:554th and 2Tisdale incomplete to Burroughs, turnover on downsWestern Kentucky 38% → 25% (−13)
- 2Q2 8:36InterceptionTisdale intercepted by Peters at the WKU45 and returned for a TD, New Mexico State leads 13-3Western Kentucky 28% → 14% (−14)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 8:39New Mexico State ties the game with a 52-yard field goal
Action packed field goal action!! Seriously, 51 yards is baller
r/CFB game thread - Q1 7:55A dog fetched a tee for the field goal kicker.
Can't beat a good tee-fetching dog. Such a good doggo
r/CFB game thread - Q1 6:35Fans react to NMSU supporters ringing cowbells and wearing mascot uniformsQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (New Mexico State -1.5), at 63% for New Mexico State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Every drive
New Mexico State scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Western Kentucky on 3 of its 14.
New Mexico State’s drives are teal, Western Kentucky’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Western Kentucky’s chance to win the conference fell from 9% to 6%.
Win the conference
Before the game (September 30, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
New Mexico State 34, Western Kentucky 13
New Mexico State covered −1.5 by 19.5. The total, 47, stayed under 55.5.
| Team totals | Western Kentucky | New Mexico State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 357 | 352 |
| Passing | 29 of 43, 314 yds | 15 of 26, 146 yds |
| Rushing | 31 for 43 yds | 34 for 206 yds |
| First downs | 18 | 17 |
| Third down | 7 of 18 | 2 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Penalties | 11 for 84 yds | 4 for 30 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:25 | 29:35 |
Western Kentucky leaders
- Passing Rodney Tisdale Jr. 29 of 40, 314 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Brock Glenn 7 for 23 yds, 1 TD; Ajay Allen 9 for 17 yds
- Receiving Jonathan Stafford Jr. 10 for 108 yds; Quincy Burroughs 3 for 62 yds
New Mexico State leaders
- Passing Adam Damante 15 of 26, 146 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing James Jones 20 for 155 yds, 1 TD; Jalen Brown 1 for 33 yds
- Receiving Josiah Thomas 4 for 60 yds; Lyndon Ravare 2 for 24 yds
No rain through the game
72° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Game-day temperatures at Aggie Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Las Cruces International airport, 11 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Western Kentucky · 1-3
Rated 42nd in our preseason ratings, 70th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
New Mexico State · 1-3
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 149th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18-42 vs New Mexico #58 of 668
lost by 24 as an 11.5-point underdog
Week by week
New Mexico State
- Wk 1Lat Florida State17-34
- Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst51-14
- Wk 2Lat Hawai'i19-29
- Wk 4Lvs New Mexico18-42
Western Kentucky
- Wk 1Lat Nevada14-49
- Wk 2Lat Georgia20-70
- Wk 3Lat Indiana0-38
- Wk 4Wvs Mercyhurst52-7
Power rating by week
Western Kentucky is rated 6.1 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: New Mexico State’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky, 77 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
New Mexico State’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky’s defense
New Mexico State offense, 88th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 11th
Western Kentucky’s passing EPA against New Mexico State’s defense
Western Kentucky offense, 19th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 68th
Western Kentucky’s success rate against New Mexico State’s defense
Western Kentucky offense, 7th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 53rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Western Kentucky leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2023 · Western Kentucky has won the last 2
- 2025Western Kentucky 35-16
- 2024Western Kentucky 41-28
- 2023New Mexico State 38-29
Each line is New Mexico State’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Western Kentucky fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 32%
- Line · 55%
- New Mexico State fans · 91st
- Western Kentucky fans · 93rd
New Mexico State favored by 1.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
New Mexico State by 1.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total rose 2 points.
Total: 53.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
New Mexico State is worth +7.2 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
39% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (13-20 home, 10-39 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.3 at home vs. away over 91 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,195 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- New Mexico State9th0-0
- Western Kentucky7th0-0