Western Kentucky beats Missouri State 34-13
Team pages: Missouri State · Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky beat Missouri State 34-13. Share this game
We had Western Kentucky favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Western Kentucky a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Western Kentucky was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.
Western Kentucky won by 21, after dipping to 46% in the first quarter.
Missouri State never had better than a 54% chance.
Western Kentucky 34-13 Missouri State
Western Kentucky wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Missouri State 13-34 Western KentuckyMissouri State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:38Glenn 1-yd TD run, Western Kentucky goes ahead 7-0Western Kentucky 62% → 73% (+11)
- 2Q3 7:23Belin 36-yd TD pass to Myers, cuts it to 21-13Western Kentucky 94% → 82% (−12)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 6:38Glenn 1-yd TD run, Western Kentucky goes ahead 7-0Missouri State 38% → 27% (−11)
- 2Q3 7:23Belin 36-yd TD pass to Myers, cuts it to 21-13Missouri State 6% → 18% (+12)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Missouri State -1.5), at 54% for Western Kentucky (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Western Kentucky scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Missouri State on 3 of its 11.
Western Kentucky’s drives are teal, Missouri State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Missouri State’s side
Missouri State’s best moment: Belin 36-yd TD pass to Myers, cuts it to 21-13 (Q3 7:23). It lifted Missouri State’s win chance by 12 points.
What it cost
Missouri State’s chance to win the conference fell from 4% to 3%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 7, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Western Kentucky 34, Missouri State 13
Western Kentucky covered +1.5 by 22.5. The total, 47, stayed under 56.5.
| Team totals | Missouri State | Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 340 | 464 |
| Passing | 20 of 38, 204 yds | 20 of 35, 231 yds |
| Rushing | 29 for 136 yds | 40 for 233 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 21 |
| Third down | 4 of 15 | 9 of 17 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 3 for 32 yds | 5 for 60 yds |
| Time of possession | 27:39 | 32:16 |
Missouri State leaders
- Passing Henry Belin IV 8 of 14, 115 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Skyler Locklear 8 for 76 yds; Jambres Dubar 5 for 24 yds
- Receiving Isaiah Myers 3 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Mekhi Miller 5 for 43 yds
Western Kentucky leaders
- Passing Brock Glenn 20 of 35, 231 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Ajay Allen 13 for 105 yds, 2 TD; Brock Glenn 15 for 95 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jonathan Stafford Jr. 6 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Lofton Howard 3 for 61 yds
No rain and calm
76° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 2 mph from the northeast, gusts to 7
October game-day temperatures at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Bowling Green airport, 2.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Missouri State · 1-3
Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 105th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Western Kentucky · 1-4
Rated 42nd in our preseason ratings, 89th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Western Kentucky
- Wk 1Lat Nevada14-49
- Wk 2Lat Georgia20-70
- Wk 3Lat Indiana0-38
- Wk 4Wvs Mercyhurst52-7
- Wk 5Lat New Mexico State13-34
Missouri State
- Wk 1Lat Texas A&M0-50
- Wk 2Wvs Lindenwood48-14
- Wk 3Lvs Marshall24-30
- Wk 4Lat SMU24-34
Power rating by week
Western Kentucky is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Western Kentucky’s explosive plays against Missouri State, 30 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Western Kentucky’s explosive plays against Missouri State’s defense
Western Kentucky offense, 58th percentile · Missouri State defense, 88th
Missouri State’s success rate against Western Kentucky’s defense
Missouri State offense, 27th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 57th
Missouri State’s passing EPA against Western Kentucky’s defense
Missouri State offense, 53rd percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 68th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Western Kentucky leads the series 5-0
5 meetings since 2003 · Western Kentucky has won the last 5
- 2025Western Kentucky 27-22
- 2006Western Kentucky 17-14
- 2005Western Kentucky 37-28
- 2004 · neutral siteWestern Kentucky 28-24
- 2003Western Kentucky 9-6
Each line is Western Kentucky’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Western Kentucky fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (95th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 57%
- Line · 45%
- Western Kentucky fans · 95th
- Missouri State fans · 92nd
Missouri State favored by 1.5 · Total 56.5
How games like this usually go
Missouri State by 1.5, on the usual path until Q2 7:29
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward Missouri State.
Spread: −2.5 → +1.5
The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Western Kentucky is worth +5.5 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.
64% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (25-14 home, 26-30 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.7 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 376 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Western Kentucky10th0-1
- Missouri State6th0-0