Missouri State beats Kennesaw State 24-21
Team pages: Kennesaw State · Missouri State
Missouri State beat Kennesaw State 24-21. Share this game
We had Kennesaw State favored. Missouri State won.
Next: Kennesaw State vs Liberty, Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET · Kennesaw State underdog by 10
How it swung
The turning point: Woods 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q4, 6:06). Missouri State went from 78% to 52% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Missouri State a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Missouri State was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.
Missouri State 24-21 Kennesaw State
Play-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Kennesaw State 21-24 Missouri StatePlay-by-play ends earlyMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:21InterceptionBelin intercepted by Lawson at the KSU19Missouri State 67% → 44% (−23)
- 2Q2 0:00Collins 10-yd TD pass to Gary, Kennesaw State goes ahead 7-6Missouri State 64% → 41% (−23)
- 3Q4 6:06Woods 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Missouri State 78% → 52% (−26)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:21InterceptionBelin intercepted by Lawson at the KSU19Kennesaw State 33% → 56% (+23)
- 2Q2 0:00Collins 10-yd TD pass to Gary, Kennesaw State goes ahead 7-6Kennesaw State 36% → 59% (+23)
- 3Q4 6:06Woods 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Kennesaw State 22% → 48% (+26)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Kennesaw State -2.5), at 50% for Missouri State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity.Every drive
Missouri State scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Kennesaw State on 3 of its 10.
Missouri State’s drives are teal, Kennesaw State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Kennesaw State’s side
Kennesaw State’s best moment: Woods 1-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q4 6:06). It lifted Kennesaw State’s win chance by 26 points.
How Kennesaw State fans took it: “Im ready to start talking about Macks job. Offense is horrible, you dont target your most explosive player. Defense has some of the worst coverage Ive ever…” r/CFB game thread
Too close to call on 55% of plays.
What it cost
Kennesaw State’s chance to win the conference fell from 1% to 0%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 13, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Kennesaw State plays vs Liberty on Thu Oct 22 with a 0% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Missouri State 24, Kennesaw State 21
Missouri State covered +2.5 by 5.5. The total, 45, stayed under 52.5.
| Team totals | Kennesaw State | Missouri State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 337 | 421 |
| Passing | 26 of 36, 260 yds | 29 of 40, 303 yds |
| Rushing | 27 for 77 yds | 33 for 118 yds |
| First downs | 23 | 26 |
| Third down | 3 of 11 | 7 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 11 for 95 yds | 9 for 84 yds |
| Time of possession | 26:24 | 33:36 |
Kennesaw State leaders
- Passing Rickie Collins 26 of 34, 260 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Alan Woods III 13 for 47 yds, 1 TD; Rickie Collins 9 for 25 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Dylan Gary 10 for 135 yds, 1 TD; Javon Rogers 6 for 79 yds
Missouri State leaders
- Passing Henry Belin IV 28 of 39, 300 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Connor Lair 14 for 65 yds; Henry Belin IV 9 for 24 yds
- Receiving Isaiah Myers 7 for 135 yds, 2 TD; Jmariyae Robinson 8 for 77 yds
No rain and calm
71° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east, gusts to 14
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Springfield, 6.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Kennesaw State · 1-4
Rated 158th in our preseason ratings, 146th now, up 12 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Missouri State · 1-4
Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 122nd now.
Three straight losses.
Week by week
Missouri State
- Wk 1Lat Texas A&M0-50
- Wk 2Wvs Lindenwood48-14
- Wk 3Lvs Marshall24-30
- Wk 4Lat SMU24-34
- Wk 6Lat Western Kentucky13-34
Kennesaw State
- Wk 1Wvs West Georgia47-0
- Wk 2Lvs Georgia State17-31
- Wk 3Lat Tennessee9-42
- Wk 4Lat Arkansas State14-17
- Wk 6Lvs Jacksonville State26-27
Power rating by week
Missouri State is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Kennesaw State’s explosive plays against Missouri State, 82 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Kennesaw State’s explosive plays against Missouri State’s defense
Kennesaw State offense, 6th percentile · Missouri State defense, 88th
Kennesaw State’s success rate against Missouri State’s defense
Kennesaw State offense, 54th percentile · Missouri State defense, 3rd
Missouri State’s rushing EPA against Kennesaw State’s defense
Missouri State offense, 14th percentile · Kennesaw State defense, 68th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Kennesaw State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2019 · Kennesaw State has won the last 2
- 2025Kennesaw State 41-34
- 2019Kennesaw State 35-24
Each line is Missouri State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Missouri State fans are in a better mood than Kennesaw State fans (99th vs 36th among FBS fanbases), even with Kennesaw State favored.
Kennesaw State favored by 2.5 · Total 52.5
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Missouri State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +3 → +2.5 · Total: 50.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Missouri State is worth +5.7 points (±6.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 77th percentile.
30% at home, 20% on the road against FBS opponents (3-7 home, 4-16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.5 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 536 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34Nov 22, 2025
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Missouri State9th0-1
- Kennesaw State7th0-1