Delaware beats Missouri State 61-38

Team pages: Missouri State · Delaware

Missouri State2-538
Delaware3-461Final
Tue, Oct 20 · Delaware Stadium, Newark, Del. · Crowd 14,214ESPNU

Delaware beat Missouri State 61-38.

We had Delaware favored. It won.

Next: Missouri State vs Sam Houston, Tue Oct 27 · 8:00 PM ET

Next: Delaware at Western Kentucky, Tue Oct 27 · 7:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Minicucci intercepted by O'Neal at the Delaware 47 and returned for a TD (Q1, 0:53). Delaware went from 69% to 40% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Delaware a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Delaware was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.

Delaware won by 23, after dipping to 32% in the second quarter.

Up to 68% in the second quarter, then Missouri State lost it.

FinalDelaware 61-38 Missouri StateDelaware wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q432% at halfDelawareLowest 32%Won61-3812−29+20Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q432% at halfDelawareLowest 32%Won61-3812Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q468% at halfDelawareLowest 0%High 68%Lost38-6112+29−20Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q468% at halfDelawareLowest 0%High 68%Lost38-6112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:53InterceptionMinicucci intercepted by O'Neal at the Delaware 47 and returned for a TDDelaware 69% → 40% (−29)
  2. 2Q3 5:56FumbleLair sacked for a 0-yd loss, fumblesDelaware 60% → 80% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:53InterceptionMinicucci intercepted by O'Neal at the Delaware 47 and returned for a TDMissouri State 31% → 60% (+29)
  2. 2Q3 5:56FumbleLair sacked for a 0-yd loss, fumblesMissouri State 40% → 20% (−20)
Delaware’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Delaware -3), at 65% for Delaware (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Delaware’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 8:37Roberts 31-yd TD runDelaware goes ahead 7-0Q1, 8:37 · Delaware 7, Missouri State 0▲7%Delaware’s chance to win, 75% to 82%▲7%Delaware’s chance to win, 75% to 82%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 4:51Lair 15-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 4:51 · Delaware 7, Missouri State 7▼10%Delaware’s chance to win, 74% to 64%▼10%Delaware’s chance to win, 74% to 64%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 0:53Minicucci intercepted by O'Neal at the Delaware 47returned for a TDQ1, 0:53 · Delaware 7, Missouri State 14▼29%Delaware’s chance to win, 69% to 40%▼29%Delaware’s chance to win, 69% to 40%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 12:39Minicucci 6-yd TD pass to Gravesties it 14-14Q2, 12:39 · Delaware 14, Missouri State 14▲11%Delaware’s chance to win, 48% to 59%▲11%Delaware’s chance to win, 48% to 59%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 8:17Minicucci 26-yd TD pass to MooreDelaware goes ahead 21-14Q2, 8:17 · Delaware 21, Missouri State 14▲16%Delaware’s chance to win, 64% to 80%▲16%Delaware’s chance to win, 64% to 80%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q2, 4:49Belin 11-yd TD pass to Myersties it 21-21Q2, 4:49 · Delaware 21, Missouri State 21▼8%Delaware’s chance to win, 72% to 64%▼8%Delaware’s chance to win, 72% to 64%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q2, 0:14Belin 6-yd TD pass to MyersMissouri State goes ahead 28-24Q2, 0:14 · Delaware 24, Missouri State 2824-28score after the play24-28score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q3, 14:29Minicucci sacked for a 3-yd lossQ3, 14:29 · Delaware 24, Missouri State 28▼4%Delaware’s chance to win, 60% to 56%▼4%Delaware’s chance to win, 60% to 56%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q3, 12:53Minicucci 12-yd TD pass to SilverDelaware goes ahead 31-28Q3, 12:53 · Delaware 31, Missouri State 28▲14%Delaware’s chance to win, 54% to 68%▲14%Delaware’s chance to win, 54% to 68%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q3, 10:33Lair 1-yd TD runMissouri State goes ahead 35-31Q3, 10:33 · Delaware 31, Missouri State 35▼4%Delaware’s chance to win, 61% to 57%▼4%Delaware’s chance to win, 61% to 57%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  11. Q3, 7:50Minicucci 3-yd TD pass to SessomsDelaware goes ahead 38-35Q3, 7:50 · Delaware 38, Missouri State 35▲9%Delaware’s chance to win, 56% to 65%▲9%Delaware’s chance to win, 56% to 65%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  12. Q3, 4:01Minicucci 1-yd TD runDelaware leads 45-35Q3, 4:01 · Delaware 45, Missouri State 35▲14%Delaware’s chance to win, 76% to 90%▲14%Delaware’s chance to win, 76% to 90%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  13. Q3, 3:36Belin intercepted by Mullins at the Delaware 34Q3, 3:36 · Delaware 45, Missouri State 3545-35score after the play45-35score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  14. Q4, 12:59Silver 3-yd TD runDelaware leads 52-35Q4, 12:59 · Delaware 52, Missouri State 35▲4%Delaware’s chance to win, 95% to 99%▲4%Delaware’s chance to win, 95% to 99%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  15. Q4, 12:48Belin intercepted by Corbin at the MSU23Q4, 12:48 · Delaware 52, Missouri State 3552-35score after the play52-35score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  16. Q4, 11:22Minicucci 3-yd TD pass to Lewis, blockedDelaware leads 58-35Q4, 11:22 · Delaware 58, Missouri State 3558-35score after the play58-35score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Delaware scored on 10 of its 13 drives; Missouri State on 5 of its 11.

Delaware’s drives are teal, Missouri State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Missouri State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 32Missed FGDelaware: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownDelaware: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 80 yards out to 53Interception TDDelaware: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Missouri State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntDelaware: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownDelaware: Field goal, from 70 yards out to 15Field goalMissouri State: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownDelaware: End of half, from 90 yards out to 90End of halfQ3Delaware: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownDelaware: Touchdown, from 33 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Fumble, from 55 yards out to 96FumbleDelaware: Touchdown, from 4 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Interception, from 66 yards out to 71InterceptionDelaware: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Missouri State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 80InterceptionDelaware: Touchdown, from 23 yards out to 0TouchdownMissouri State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntDelaware: Field goal, from 41 yards out to 7Field goalMissouri State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalDelaware: Uncategorized, from 75 yards out to 29Uncategorized

From Missouri State’s side

Missouri State’s best moment: Minicucci intercepted by O'Neal at the Delaware 47 and returned for a TD (Q1 0:53). It lifted Missouri State’s win chance by 29 points.

6 lead changes.

What it cost

Missouri State’s chance to win the conference fell from 2% to 1%.

Win the conference

Missouri State · lost2% → ▼1%
Delaware · won1% → 1%

Before the game (October 19, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Missouri State plays vs Sam Houston on Tue Oct 27 with a 1% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Delaware 61, Missouri State 38

Delaware covered −3 by 20. The total, 99, went over 54.5.

Missouri StateDelawareTotal yardsMissouri State 431Delaware 482431482Passing yardsMissouri State 337Delaware 250337250Rushing yardsMissouri State 94Delaware 23294232First downsMissouri State 22Delaware 262226TurnoversMissouri State 3Delaware 131Time of possessionMissouri State 25:17Delaware 34:4325:1734:43
Team totalsMissouri StateDelaware
Total yards431482
Passing26 of 35, 337 yds22 of 33, 250 yds
Rushing23 for 94 yds42 for 232 yds
First downs2226
Third down4 of 85 of 12
Fourth down0 of 05 of 5
Turnovers31
Penalties12 for 100 yds5 for 40 yds
Time of possession25:1734:43

Missouri State leaders

  • Passing Henry Belin IV 26 of 35, 337 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Connor Lair 15 for 85 yds, 2 TD; Ramone Green Jr. 6 for 19 yds
  • Receiving Isaiah Myers 11 for 242 yds, 2 TD; Jmariyae Robinson 10 for 85 yds

Delaware leaders

  • Passing Nick Minicucci 20 of 29, 225 yds, 5 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jo'Nathan Silver 13 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Kaderris Roberts 8 for 58 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Sean Wilson 6 for 69 yds; Donovan Lewis 7 for 64 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

60° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north-northwest, gusts to 8

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Delaware favoredMissouri State favored100%Win chanceDelawareRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Delaware favoredMissouri State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 0:53 left7:37 p.m.
Missouri State 14, Delaware 7 · Delaware 40% to win
no rain · wind 5 mph from the north-northwest · 57°
Minicucci intercepted by O'Neal at the Delaware 47 and returned for a TD

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Wilmington Airport, 7.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Missouri State · 2-4

Rated 94th in our preseason ratings, 136th now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Kennesaw State as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 24-21 vs Kennesaw State #141 of 668

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 13-34 @ Western Kentucky #82 of 668

lost by 21 as a 1.5-point favorite

Missouri State lost 13-34 at Western Kentucky. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 24-34 @ SMUTop 25 #18 of 668

lost by 10 as a 30.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 24-34 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 14%.

L 24-30 vs Marshall #39 of 668

lost by 6 as a 4-point underdog

Missouri State lost 24-30 vs Marshall. Chance to win started at 52%, low 7%, high 53%.

W 48-14 vs Lindenwood #180 of 668

won by 34 as a 16.5-point favorite

Missouri State won 48-14 vs Lindenwood. Chance to win started at 90%, low 90%, high better than 99%.

L 0-50 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 50 as a 38.5-point underdog

Missouri State lost 0-50 at Texas A&M. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Last three games

Delaware · 2-4

Rated 41st in our preseason ratings, 107th now.

Three straight losses.

L 30-33 @ Middle Tennessee #167 of 668

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

Delaware lost 30-33 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 46%, low 1%, high 81%.

L 14-30 vs Liberty #72 of 668

lost by 16 as a 7-point underdog

Delaware lost 14-30 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 38%, low under 1%, high 39%.

L 3-42 @ VirginiaTop 25 #38 of 668

lost by 39 as a 19.5-point underdog

Delaware lost 3-42 at Virginia. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 8%.

Week by week

Delaware

Wk 2: L 26-35 at Vanderbilt▼9Vanderbi…Wk 3: W 22-14 vs Coastal Carolina▲8Coastal…Wk 4: L 3-42 at Virginia▼39VirginiaWk 5: L 14-30 vs Liberty▼16LibertyWk 7: L 30-33 at Middle Tennessee▼3M. Tenne…
  • Wk 2Lat Vanderbilt26-35
  • Wk 3Wvs Coastal Carolina22-14
  • Wk 4Lat Virginia3-42
  • Wk 5Lvs Liberty14-30
  • Wk 7Lat Middle Tennessee30-33

Missouri State

Wk 2: W 48-14 vs Lindenwood▲34Lindenwo…Wk 3: L 24-30 vs Marshall▼6MarshallWk 4: L 24-34 at SMU▼10SMUWk 6: L 13-34 at Western Kentucky▼21W. Kentu…Wk 7: W 24-21 vs Kennesaw State▲3Kennesaw…
  • Wk 2Wvs Lindenwood48-14
  • Wk 3Lvs Marshall24-30
  • Wk 4Lat SMU24-34
  • Wk 6Lat Western Kentucky13-34
  • Wk 7Wvs Kennesaw State24-21

Power rating by week

Delaware is rated 2.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

60-6Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7DelawareMissouri State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Missouri State’s rushing EPA against Delaware, 43 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Missouri State’s rushing EPA against Delaware’s defense

    43 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Missouri State offense, 14th percentile · Delaware defense, 57th

  2. Delaware’s EPA/play against Missouri State’s defense

    32 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Delaware offense, 38th percentile · Missouri State defense, 6th

  3. Delaware’s explosive plays against Missouri State’s defense

    25 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Delaware offense, 64th percentile · Missouri State defense, 89th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Missouri StateDelaware
EPA/play, offense
Missouri State · 26Delaware · 38
EPA/play, defense
Missouri State · 6Delaware · 26
Success rate, offense
Missouri State · 27Delaware · 31
Success rate, defense
Missouri State · 3Delaware · 31
Explosive-play rate, offense
Missouri State · 36Delaware · 64
Explosive-play rate, defense
Missouri State · 89Delaware · 24
Rush EPA, offense
Missouri State ·…Delaware · 45
Rush EPA, defense
Missouri State · 18Delaware · 57
Pass EPA, offense
Missouri State · 53Delaware · 38
Pass EPA, defense
Missouri State · 11Delaware · 28

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Missouri State fans are in a better mood than Delaware fans (96th vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with Delaware favored.

  • Model · 68%
  • Line · 60%
  • Delaware fans · 23rd
  • Missouri State fans · 96th

Delaware favored by 3 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Delaware by 3, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 255 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The total rose 2 points.

opened 52.5now 54.5

Total: 52.5 → 54.5

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Delaware is worth +9.8 points (±7.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.

60% at home, 14% on the road against FBS opponents (6-4 home, 2-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.6 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 962 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Conference USA standings