Delaware at Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky (3‑4) hosts Delaware (3‑4). No market line yet; the model calls it close to even. Delaware’s offense is at the 64th percentile on explosive plays; Western Kentucky’s defense is at the 11th.
How they got here
Last three games
Delaware · 3-4
Rated 41st in our preseason ratings, 86th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Western Kentucky · 3-4
Rated 42nd in our preseason ratings, 80th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 21-point win over Missouri State as a 1.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Delaware’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky, 53 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Delaware’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky’s defense
Delaware offense, 64th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 11th
Delaware’s rushing EPA against Western Kentucky’s defense
Delaware offense, 45th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 4th
Western Kentucky’s success rate against Delaware’s defense
Western Kentucky offense, 7th percentile · Delaware defense, 31st
What’s at stake
Delaware
- Delaware is 2 games back in Conference USA with 4 left to make it up.
- Delaware is coming off a 23-point win.
Western Kentucky
- Western Kentucky is 1 game back in Conference USA with 4 left to make it up.
- Western Kentucky is the Conference USA program whose Mike Sanford / Jeff Brohm Air Raid eras + 2002 FCS championship + 2024 8-5 bowl eligibility define what historic-Kentucky-football looks like outside Lexington.
The series
Western Kentucky leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2025 · Western Kentucky won the last meeting
- 2025Western Kentucky 27-24
Each line is Western Kentucky’s chance to win through that meeting.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Delaware
The chip · vs the national mediaDelaware arrived in the FBS with more championship history than most of the programs it now plays, and outsiders still talk about FCS-to-FBS jumps as programs proving themselves from scratch. The 68 Ventures Bowl win, in year one, against a bid nobody guaranteed them, was the fanbase's answer.
What this game touches
The 2007 national championship game loss to Appalachian State. Joe Flacco's Delaware team reached the FCS national championship game in 2007 and lost 49-21 to Appalachian State -- the program's clearest recent shot at a seventh national title, and the closest the Flacco era came to matching the Tubby Raymond-era championship standard.
Western Kentucky
The chip · vs the national mediaHilltopper Nation knows the joke — that people hear 'Kentucky football' and never think of Bowling Green. They say the program that wins eight or nine games like clockwork deserves more than to be the state's footnote, and they keep the receipts.
Best players
Delaware
- Gavin Moul (LB) · 47 tackles
- Blake Matthews (LB) · 43 tackles
- Colin Gallagher (LB) · 43 tackles
Western Kentucky
- Jaylen Lewis (DB) · 58 tackles
- Kennon Loftin (LB) · 52 tackles
- Marvin Sims (WR) · 571 receiving yards
The betting line, and the fans
Western Kentucky fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (81st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 94, noon and 3:30 pm Saturdays 87
Delaware at Western Kentucky · Tuesday, Oct. 27 · 7 pm ET · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Western Kentucky is worth +5.5 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.
64% at home, 46% on the road against FBS opponents (25-14 home, 26-30 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.7 at home vs. away over 104 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 609 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Western Kentucky
- Wk 3Lat Indiana0-38
- Wk 4Wvs Mercyhurst52-7
- Wk 5Lat New Mexico State13-34
- Wk 6Wvs Missouri State34-13
- Wk 7Wat Sam Houston16-3
Delaware
- Wk 3Wvs Coastal Carolina22-14
- Wk 4Lat Virginia3-42
- Wk 5Lvs Liberty14-30
- Wk 7Lat Middle Tennessee30-33
- Wk 8Wvs Missouri State61-38
Power rating by week
Western Kentucky is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Western Kentucky4th2-1
- Delaware6th1-2