Western Kentucky beats Sam Houston 16-3
Team pages: Western Kentucky · Sam Houston
Western Kentucky beat Sam Houston 16-3. Share this game
We had Western Kentucky favored. It won.
Next: Western Kentucky vs Delaware, Tue Oct 27 · 7:00 PM ET
Next: Sam Houston vs New Mexico State, Wed Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET · Sam Houston underdog by 2.5
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Western Kentucky a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Western Kentucky was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.
A tight one: Western Kentucky bottomed out at 47% and won.
Sam Houston never had better than a 53% chance.
Western Kentucky 16-3 Sam Houston
Western Kentucky wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Sam Houston 3-16 Western KentuckySam Houston lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:06Glenn 23-yd TD pass to Arends, Western Kentucky goes ahead 7-0Western Kentucky 58% → 70% (+12)
- 2Q2 1:01Glenn 8-yd pass to StaffordWestern Kentucky 63% → 73% (+10)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:06Glenn 23-yd TD pass to Arends, Western Kentucky goes ahead 7-0Sam Houston 42% → 30% (−12)
- 2Q2 1:01Glenn 8-yd pass to StaffordSam Houston 37% → 27% (−10)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 13:32Locke throws interception to Newsome Jr as Sam Houston trails 13-3
Locke is HORRENDOUS.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 4:08Fans criticize unnecessary roughness penalty on Glenn sack fumble
That's a weak flag. Reasonable, but weak
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Western Kentucky -1.5), at 47% for Western Kentucky (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Western Kentucky’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 10:06Glenn 23-yd TD pass to ArendsWestern Kentucky goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:06 · Western Kentucky 7, Sam Houston 0▲12%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 58% to 70%▲12%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 58% to 70%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 9:21Locke sacked for a 6-yd lossQ1, 9:21 · Western Kentucky 7, Sam Houston 0▲6%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 70% to 76%▲6%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 70% to 76%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 0:54Locke sacked for a 10-yd lossQ1, 0:54 · Western Kentucky 7, Sam Houston 0▲5%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 69% to 74%▲5%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 69% to 74%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:52Dowdy 5-yd runfumblesQ4, 13:52 · Western Kentucky 13, Sam Houston 3▼2%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 86% to 84%▼2%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 86% to 84%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:20Locke intercepted by Newsome at the WKU38returned 22 yardsQ4, 13:20 · Western Kentucky 13, Sam Houston 3▲3%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 87% to 90%▲3%Western Kentucky’s chance to win, 87% to 90%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Western Kentucky scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Sam Houston on 1 of its 11.
Western Kentucky’s drives are teal, Sam Houston’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
Western Kentucky’s chance to win the conference rose from 7% to 9%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 14, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Western Kentucky plays vs Delaware on Tue Oct 27 with a 9% chance to win the conference. Sam Houston plays vs New Mexico State on Wed Oct 21 with a 1% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Western Kentucky 16, Sam Houston 3
Western Kentucky covered −1.5 by 11.5. The total, 19, stayed under 53.5.
| Team totals | Western Kentucky | Sam Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 276 | 177 |
| Passing | 15 of 31, 132 yds | 13 of 30, 112 yds |
| Rushing | 43 for 144 yds | 27 for 65 yds |
| First downs | 17 | 12 |
| Third down | 8 of 20 | 2 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 4 for 33 yds | 9 for 100 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:23 | 27:37 |
Western Kentucky leaders
- Passing Brock Glenn 14 of 30, 127 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Brock Glenn 22 for 54 yds; Le'Kamren Meadows 1 for 32 yds
- Receiving Jonathan Stafford Jr. 5 for 37 yds; Moussa Barry 2 for 36 yds
Sam Houston leaders
- Passing Landyn Locke 13 of 30, 112 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing MJ Dowdy 14 for 55 yds; Landan Brown 3 for 16 yds
- Receiving Chris Reed 3 for 51 yds; Kyan Berry-Johnson 3 for 26 yds
No rain and calm
85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the south-southeast, mostly along the field, gusts to 20
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Huntsville Municipal Airport, 3.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Western Kentucky · 2-4
Rated 42nd in our preseason ratings, 82nd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 21-point win over Missouri State as a 1.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Sam Houston · 1-4
Rated 165th in our preseason ratings, 147th now, up 18 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Sam Houston
- Wk 1Lat Troy21-24
- Wk 2Lvs Tulsa17-23
- Wk 3Wvs Nicholls59-0
- Wk 4Lat Texas Tech14-49
- Wk 6Lat Liberty3-35
Western Kentucky
- Wk 2Lat Georgia20-70
- Wk 3Lat Indiana0-38
- Wk 4Wvs Mercyhurst52-7
- Wk 5Lat New Mexico State13-34
- Wk 6Wvs Missouri State34-13
Power rating by week
Western Kentucky is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Western Kentucky’s passing EPA against Sam Houston, 59 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Western Kentucky’s passing EPA against Sam Houston’s defense
Western Kentucky offense, 19th percentile · Sam Houston defense, 78th
Sam Houston’s explosive plays against Western Kentucky’s defense
Sam Houston offense, 54th percentile · Western Kentucky defense, 11th
Western Kentucky’s success rate against Sam Houston’s defense
Western Kentucky offense, 7th percentile · Sam Houston defense, 50th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Western Kentucky leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2004 · Western Kentucky has won the last 3
- 2025Western Kentucky 41-24
- 2024Western Kentucky 31-14
- 2023Western Kentucky 28-23
- 2004Sam Houston 54-24
Each line is Sam Houston’s chance to win through that meeting. Sam Houston is 0-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Western Kentucky fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (93rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Western Kentucky favored by 1.5 · Total 53.5
How games like this usually go
Western Kentucky by 1.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The total rose 2 points.
Total: 51.5 → 53.5
The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Sam Houston is worth +8.4 points (±5.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
57% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (8-6 home, 5-18 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 40 games — inside the ±10.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 677 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Sam Houston8th0-1
- Western Kentucky5th1-1