Liberty routs Sam Houston 35-3

Team pages: Sam Houston · Liberty

Sam Houston1-43
Liberty5-135Final
Thu, Oct 8 · Williams Stadium (VA), Lynchburg, Va. · Crowd 15,335ESPNU

Liberty routed Sam Houston 35-3.

We had Liberty favored. It won.

Next: Sam Houston lost to Western Kentucky 16-3, Wed Oct 14

Next: Liberty at Kennesaw State, Thu Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET · Liberty favored by 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Liberty an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Liberty was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

TargetingQ2 12:41
FinalLiberty 35-3 Sam HoustonLiberty wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfLibertyWon35-3ScoresTargeting
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q495% at halfLibertyWon35-3ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfLibertyLowest 0%Lost3-35ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q45% at halfLibertyLowest 0%Lost3-35ScoresTargeting

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Liberty’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Liberty -13.5), at 88% for Liberty (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Liberty’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:48Purdie 15-yd TD pass to RandolphLiberty goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:48 · Liberty 7, Sam Houston 0▲4%Liberty’s chance to win, 90% to 94%▲4%Liberty’s chance to win, 90% to 94%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q3, 8:04Vasko 3-yd TD runLiberty leads 21-3Q3, 8:04 · Liberty 21, Sam Houston 3▲2%Liberty’s chance to win, 97% to 99%▲2%Liberty’s chance to win, 97% to 99%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q4, 14:58Davis 3-yd TD runLiberty leads 28-3Q4, 14:58 · Liberty 28, Sam Houston 328-3score after the play28-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Liberty scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Sam Houston on 1 of its 9.

Liberty’s drives are teal, Sam Houston’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Liberty: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Punt, from 70 yards out to 66PuntLiberty: Punt, from 75 yards out to 49PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 91 yards out to 86PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Sam Houston: Punt, from 75 yards out to 45PuntLiberty: Punt, from 89 yards out to 48PuntSam Houston: Punt, from 91 yards out to 72PuntLiberty: Punt, from 83 yards out to 83PuntSam Houston: Field goal, from 52 yards out to 18Field goalLiberty: End of half, from 49 yards out to 54End of halfQ3Sam Houston: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 36DownsLiberty: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 28DownsLiberty: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Sam Houston: Punt, from 92 yards out to 89PuntLiberty: Touchdown, from 54 yards out to 0TouchdownSam Houston: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 9DownsLiberty: End of game, from 91 yards out to 80End of game

What it cost

Liberty’s chance to win the conference rose from 46% to 50%.

Win the conference

Sam Houston · lost4% → ▼3%
Liberty · won46% → ▲50%46%▲ 50%

Before the game (October 7, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Liberty plays at Kennesaw State on Thu Oct 22 with a 50% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Liberty 35, Sam Houston 3

Liberty covered −13.5 by 18.5. The total, 38, stayed under 52.5.

Sam HoustonLibertyTotal yardsSam Houston 243Liberty 411243411Passing yardsSam Houston 138Liberty 114138114Rushing yardsSam Houston 105Liberty 297105297First downsSam Houston 13Liberty 221322TurnoversSam Houston 0Liberty 000Time of possessionSam Houston 29:04Liberty 30:5629:0430:56
Team totalsSam HoustonLiberty
Total yards243411
Passing20 of 30, 138 yds10 of 14, 114 yds
Rushing29 for 105 yds39 for 297 yds
First downs1322
Third down4 of 134 of 7
Fourth down0 of 30 of 0
Turnovers00
Penalties9 for 68 yds15 for 117 yds
Time of possession29:0430:56

Sam Houston leaders

  • Passing Landyn Locke 20 of 30, 138 yds
  • Rushing MJ Dowdy 11 for 42 yds; Alton McCaskill 7 for 36 yds
  • Receiving Grady O'Neill 3 for 39 yds; Kyan Berry-Johnson 3 for 20 yds

Liberty leaders

  • Passing Deshawn Purdie 10 of 14, 114 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jaylon Coleman 7 for 92 yds; Kam Davis 10 for 67 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Makai Jackson 3 for 46 yds; Rashawn Cunningham 2 for 17 yds

No rain through the game

73° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Williams Stadium (VA)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Liberty favoredSam Houston favored100%Win chanceLibertyRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Liberty favoredSam Houston favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:39 left7:04 p.m.
Sam Houston 0, Liberty 0 · Liberty 88% to win
no rain · 72°
Davis 9-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lynchburg/p. Glenn airport, 2.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Sam Houston · 1-3

Rated 165th in our preseason ratings, 138th now, up 27 spots.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 14-49 @ Texas TechTop 25 #9 of 668

lost by 35 as a 34.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 14-49 at Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 59-0 vs Nicholls #220 of 668

won by 59 as a 21-point favorite

Sam Houston won 59-0 vs Nicholls. Chance to win started at 94%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

L 17-23 vs Tulsa #125 of 668

lost by 6 as a 12.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 17-23 vs Tulsa. Chance to win started at 26%, low 4%, high 54%.

L 21-24 @ Troy #118 of 668

lost by 3 as a 15.5-point underdog

Sam Houston lost 21-24 at Troy. Chance to win started at 14%, low under 1%, high 32%.

Last three games

Liberty · 4-1

Rated 83rd in our preseason ratings, 72nd now, up 11 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 30-14 @ Delaware #82 of 668

won by 16 as a 7-point favorite

Liberty won 30-14 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 62%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

W 34-17 @ Coastal Carolina #170 of 668

won by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

Liberty won 34-17 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 44%, low 25%, high better than 99%.

W 51-15 vs Ball State #157 of 668

won by 36 as a 14.5-point favorite

Liberty won 51-15 vs Ball State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

W 24-23 vs Gardner-Webb #181 of 668

won by 1 as a 28.5-point favorite

Liberty won 24-23 vs Gardner-Webb. Chance to win started at 96%, low 36%, high 99%.

L 13-20 @ James Madison #86 of 668

lost by 7 as a 6-point underdog

Liberty lost 13-20 at James Madison. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 33%.

Week by week

Liberty

Wk 1: L 13-20 at James Madison▼7James Ma…Wk 2: W 24-23 vs Gardner-Webb▲1Gardner-…Wk 3: W 51-15 vs Ball State▲36Ball St.Wk 4: W 34-17 at Coastal Carolina▲17Coastal…Wk 5: W 30-14 at Delaware▲16Delaware
  • Wk 1Lat James Madison13-20
  • Wk 2Wvs Gardner-Webb24-23
  • Wk 3Wvs Ball State51-15
  • Wk 4Wat Coastal Carolina34-17
  • Wk 5Wat Delaware30-14

Sam Houston

Wk 1: L 21-24 at Troy▼3TroyWk 2: L 17-23 vs Tulsa▼6TulsaWk 3: W 59-0 vs Nicholls▲59NichollsWk 4: L 14-49 at Texas Tech▼35Texas Tech
  • Wk 1Lat Troy21-24
  • Wk 2Lvs Tulsa17-23
  • Wk 3Wvs Nicholls59-0
  • Wk 4Lat Texas Tech14-49

Power rating by week

Liberty is rated 5.2 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

2-3-9Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5LibertySam Houston

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Sam Houston’s passing EPA against Liberty, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Sam Houston’s EPA/play against Liberty’s defense

    70 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 11th percentile · Liberty defense, 81st

  2. Sam Houston’s passing EPA against Liberty’s defense

    73 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 15th percentile · Liberty defense, 88th

  3. Sam Houston’s explosive plays against Liberty’s defense

    43 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Sam Houston offense, 54th percentile · Liberty defense, 11th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Sam HoustonLiberty
EPA/play, offense
Sam Houston · 11Liberty · 62
EPA/play, defense
Sam Houston · 39Liberty · 81
Success rate, offense
Sam Houston · 12Liberty · 84
Success rate, defense
Sam Houston · 50Liberty · 87
Explosive-play rate, offense
Sam Houston · 54Liberty · 18
Explosive-play rate, defense
Sam Houston · 56Liberty · 11
Rush EPA, offense
Sam Houston · 12Liberty · 64
Rush EPA, defense
Sam Houston · 7Liberty · 47
Pass EPA, offense
Sam Houston · 15Liberty · 71
Pass EPA, defense
Sam Houston · 78Liberty · 88

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2023 · Sam Houston won the last meeting

  • 2024Sam Houston 20-18Liberty lost 18-20 at Sam Houston. Chance to win started at 55%, low 6%, high 63%.
  • 2023Liberty 21-16Liberty won 21-16 vs Sam Houston. Chance to win started at 92%, low 52%, high 97%.

Each line is Liberty’s chance to win through that meeting. Liberty is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Sam Houston fans are in a better mood than Liberty fans (68th vs 31st among FBS fanbases), even with Liberty favored.

50-50Model 82% · Line 86%Liberty fans · 31stSam Houston fans · 68thSam HoustonLiberty

Liberty favored by 13.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Liberty by 13.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Liberty is worth +4.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.

76% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (32-10 home, 24-23 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,041 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Conference USA standings