Kennesaw State beats Middle Tennessee 44-28

Team pages: Kennesaw State · Middle Tennessee

Kennesaw State2-644
Middle Tennessee4-428Final
Wed, Oct 28 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, Tenn. · Crowd 10,005CBS Sports Network

Kennesaw State beat Middle Tennessee 44-28.

We had Middle Tennessee favored. Kennesaw State won.

Next: Kennesaw State vs Delaware, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: Middle Tennessee vs Western Kentucky, Sat Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Gagliano intercepted by Christopher at the KSU41 and returned for a TD (Q3, 12:32). Kennesaw State went from 53% to 81% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kennesaw State a 34% chance, and the closing betting line (Kennesaw State was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

Kennesaw State won by 16, after dipping to 33% in the second quarter.

Up to 67% in the second quarter, then Middle Tennessee lost it.

Pick-sixKennesaw State · Q3 12:32
FinalKennesaw State 44-28 Middle TennesseeKennesaw State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q456% at halfKennesaw StateLowest 33%Won44-2812+13+28Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q456% at halfKennesaw StateLowest 33%Won44-2812Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q444% at halfKennesaw StateLowest 0%High 67%Lost28-4412−13−28Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q444% at halfKennesaw StateLowest 0%High 67%Lost28-4412Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:32Woods 12-yd TD run, Kennesaw State goes ahead 7-0Kennesaw State 59% → 72% (+13)
  2. 2Q3 12:32InterceptionGagliano intercepted by Christopher at the KSU41 and returned for a TDKennesaw State 53% → 81% (+28)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 12:32Woods 12-yd TD run, Kennesaw State goes ahead 7-0Middle Tennessee 41% → 28% (−13)
  2. 2Q3 12:32InterceptionGagliano intercepted by Christopher at the KSU41 and returned for a TDMiddle Tennessee 47% → 19% (−28)
Kennesaw State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Kennesaw State -1.5), at 48% for Kennesaw State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Kennesaw State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 7:59Gagliano 1-yd TD runties it 7-7Q1, 7:59 · Kennesaw State 7, Middle Tennessee 7▼10%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 60% to 50%▼10%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 60% to 50%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  2. Q2, 11:09Martin 7-yd TD runMiddle Tennessee goes ahead 14-7Q2, 11:09 · Kennesaw State 7, Middle Tennessee 14▼10%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 43% to 33%▼10%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 43% to 33%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  3. Q2, 9:31Collins 23-yd TD pass to Brysoncuts it to 14-13Q2, 9:31 · Kennesaw State 13, Middle Tennessee 14▲3%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 33% to 36%▲3%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 33% to 36%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  4. Q3, 12:32Gagliano intercepted by Christopher at the KSU41returned for a TDQ3, 12:32 · Kennesaw State 27, Middle Tennessee 17▲28%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 53% to 81%▲28%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 53% to 81%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  5. Q3, 5:59Collins intercepted by Smith at the KSU43Q3, 5:59 · Kennesaw State 27, Middle Tennessee 17▼6%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 86% to 80%▼6%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 86% to 80%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  6. Q4, 11:50Collins 28-yd TD pass to GaryKennesaw State leads 34-20Q4, 11:50 · Kennesaw State 34, Middle Tennessee 20▲6%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 88% to 94%▲6%Kennesaw State’s chance to win, 88% to 94%Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
  7. Q4, 5:21Gagliano intercepted by Paul at the MTSU43returned 41 yardsQ4, 5:21 · Kennesaw State 34, Middle Tennessee 2034-20score after the play34-20score after the playWatch from this playCBS Sports College Football

Every drive

Kennesaw State scored on 7 of its 15 drives; Middle Tennessee on 4 of its 14.

Kennesaw State’s drives are teal, Middle Tennessee’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Kennesaw State: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownKennesaw State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65PuntMiddle Tennessee: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Kennesaw State: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntKennesaw State: Touchdown, from 31 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntKennesaw State: Punt, from 88 yards out to 58PuntMiddle Tennessee: Field goal, from 79 yards out to 33Field goalQ3Middle Tennessee: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 46Interception TDMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntKennesaw State: Punt, from 84 yards out to 75PuntMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntKennesaw State: Interception, from 68 yards out to 65InterceptionMiddle Tennessee: Field goal, from 43 yards out to 20Field goalKennesaw State: Turned over on downs, from 73 yards out to 75DownsMiddle Tennessee: Missed field goal, from 25 yards out to 28Missed FGKennesaw State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 66PuntMiddle Tennessee: Punt, from 79 yards out to 64PuntQ4Kennesaw State: Touchdown, from 79 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 40DownsKennesaw State: Punt, from 60 yards out to 59PuntMiddle Tennessee: Interception, from 75 yards out to 73InterceptionKennesaw State: Touchdown, from 2 yards out to 0TouchdownMiddle Tennessee: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 67DownsKennesaw State: Field goal, from 33 yards out to 32Field goalKennesaw State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownKennesaw State: Uncategorized, from 60 yards out to 95Uncategorized

From Middle Tennessee’s side

Middle Tennessee’s best moment: Collins 0-yd run, fumbles (Q3 3:33). It lifted Middle Tennessee’s win chance by 12 points.

What it cost

Middle Tennessee’s chance to win the conference fell from 4% to 2%.

Win the conference

Kennesaw State · won0% → 0%
Middle Tennessee · lost4% → ▼2%

Before the game (October 27, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Middle Tennessee plays vs Western Kentucky on Sat Nov 7 with a 2% chance to win the conference.

Box score

Kennesaw State 44, Middle Tennessee 28

Kennesaw State covered −1.5 by 14.5. The total, 72, went over 49.5.

Kennesaw StateMiddle TennesseeTotal yardsKennesaw State 318Middle Tennessee 380318380Passing yardsKennesaw State 206Middle Tennessee 183206183Rushing yardsKennesaw State 112Middle Tennessee 197112197First downsKennesaw State 14Middle Tennessee 221422TurnoversKennesaw State 2Middle Tennessee 222Time of possessionKennesaw State 19:41Middle Tennessee 40:1919:4140:19
Team totalsKennesaw StateMiddle Tennessee
Total yards318380
Passing16 of 19, 206 yds21 of 44, 183 yds
Rushing29 for 112 yds45 for 197 yds
First downs1422
Third down2 of 1011 of 20
Fourth down0 of 10 of 2
Turnovers22
Penalties9 for 72 yds7 for 55 yds
Time of possession19:4140:19

Kennesaw State leaders

  • Passing Rickie Collins 16 of 19, 206 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Alan Woods III 12 for 67 yds, 2 TD; Davis Bryson 2 for 30 yds
  • Receiving Dylan Gary 2 for 59 yds, 2 TD; Javon Rogers 3 for 47 yds

Middle Tennessee leaders

  • Passing Roman Gagliano 21 of 43, 183 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Antonio Martin 18 for 106 yds, 1 TD; Roman Gagliano 15 for 47 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Cam'Ron Lacy 4 for 73 yds; Terrence Brown Jr. 6 for 31 yds

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Middle Tennessee favoredKennesaw State favored0%Win chanceMiddle TennesseeRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Middle Tennessee favoredKennesaw State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 12:32 left7:59 p.m.
Kennesaw State 27, Middle Tennessee 17 · Middle Tennessee 19% to win
no rain · 63°
Gagliano intercepted by Christopher at the KSU41 and returned for a TD

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Murfreesboro airport, 1.9 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Kennesaw State · 1-6

Rated 158th in our preseason ratings, 165th now.

Three straight losses.

L 6-34 vs Liberty No. 45 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as an 8.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State lost 6-34 vs Liberty. Chance to win started at 40%, low under 1%, high 40%.

L 21-24 @ Missouri State No. 136 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 26-27 vs Jacksonville State No. 72 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 3-point underdog

Kennesaw State lost 26-27 vs Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 55%, low under 1%, high 84%.

L 14-17 @ Arkansas State No. 152 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State lost 14-17 at Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 64%.

L 9-42 @ TennesseeTop 25 No. 24 of 668 teams

lost by 33 as a 35.5-point underdog

Kennesaw State lost 9-42 at Tennessee. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 17-31 vs Georgia State No. 139 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 7.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State lost 17-31 vs Georgia State. Chance to win started at 76%, low under 1%, high 77%.

W 47-0 vs West Georgia No. 212 of 668 teams

won by 47 as a 22.5-point favorite

Kennesaw State won 47-0 vs West Georgia. Chance to win started at 96%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Middle Tennessee · 4-3

Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings, 139th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Florida International as a 10.5-point underdog.

W 26-23 @ Florida International No. 122 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee won 26-23 at Florida International. Chance to win started at 16%, low 7%, high 89%.

W 33-30 vs Delaware No. 107 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee won 33-30 vs Delaware. Chance to win started at 54%, low 19%, high 99%.

L 0-55 @ Kansas No. 61 of 668 teams

lost by 55 as a 21.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 0-55 at Kansas. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 9%.

L 13-23 @ Jacksonville State No. 67 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 7-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 13-23 at Jacksonville State. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 43%.

W 27-20 vs Nevada No. 182 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 26-28 @ Marshall No. 33 of 668 teams

lost by 2 as an 11.5-point underdog

Middle Tennessee lost 26-28 at Marshall. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 66%.

W 38-14 vs Murray State No. 251 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 22.5-point favorite

Middle Tennessee won 38-14 vs Murray State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Middle Tennessee

Wk 3: W 27-20 vs Nevada▲7NevadaWk 4: L 13-23 at Jacksonville State▼10Jacksonv…Wk 5: L 0-55 at Kansas▼55KansasWk 7: W 33-30 vs Delaware▲3DelawareWk 8: W 26-23 at Florida International▲3F. Inter…
  • Wk 3Wvs Nevada27-20
  • Wk 4Lat Jacksonville State13-23
  • Wk 5Lat Kansas0-55
  • Wk 7Wvs Delaware33-30
  • Wk 8Wat Florida International26-23

Kennesaw State

Wk 3: L 9-42 at Tennessee▼33TennesseeWk 4: L 14-17 at Arkansas State▼3A. St.Wk 6: L 26-27 vs Jacksonville State▼1Jacksonv…Wk 7: L 21-24 at Missouri State▼3Missouri…Wk 8: L 6-34 vs Liberty▼28Liberty
  • Wk 3Lat Tennessee9-42
  • Wk 4Lat Arkansas State14-17
  • Wk 6Lvs Jacksonville State26-27
  • Wk 7Lat Missouri State21-24
  • Wk 8Lvs Liberty6-34

Power rating by week

Middle Tennessee is rated 1.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-6-8Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Middle TennesseeKennesaw State

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Kennesaw State’s explosive plays against Middle Tennessee, 55 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Kennesaw State’s explosive plays against Middle Tennessee’s defense

    55 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kennesaw State offense, 8th percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 63rd

  2. Kennesaw State’s success rate against Middle Tennessee’s defense

    45 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kennesaw State offense, 53rd percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 8th

  3. Kennesaw State’s rushing EPA against Middle Tennessee’s defense

    25 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kennesaw State offense, 42nd percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 17th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Kennesaw StateMiddle Tennessee
EPA/play, offense
Kennesaw State · 29Middle Tennessee · 30
EPA/play, defense
Kennesaw State · 37Middle Tennessee · 21
Success rate, offense
Kennesaw State · 53Middle Tennessee · 23
Success rate, defense
Kennesaw State · 42Middle Tennessee · 8
Explosive-play rate, offense
Kennesaw State · 8Middle Tennessee · 63
Explosive-play rate, defense
Kennesaw State · 89Middle Tennessee · 63
Rush EPA, offense
Kennesaw State · 42Middle Tennessee · 39
Rush EPA, defense
Kennesaw State · 45Middle Tennessee ·…
Pass EPA, offense
Kennesaw State · 32Middle Tennessee · 27
Pass EPA, defense
Kennesaw State · 37Middle Tennessee · 41

The series

The series is tied 1-1

2 meetings since 2024 · Kennesaw State won the last meeting

  • 2025Kennesaw State 24-16Middle Tennessee lost 16-24 at Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 24%, low 2%, high 24%.
  • 2024Middle Tennessee 14-5Middle Tennessee won 14-5 vs Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 80%, low 66%, high 96%.

Each line is Middle Tennessee’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Middle Tennessee fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (67th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 66%
  • Line · 45%
  • Middle Tennessee fans · 67th
  • Kennesaw State fans · 62nd

Kennesaw State favored by 1.5 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Kennesaw State by 1.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 290 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Kennesaw State.

opened −2.5now +1.5

Spread: −2.5 → +1.5

The books’ cut: 4.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Middle Tennessee is worth +5.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 75th percentile.

49% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (19-20 home, 16-38 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.5 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 162 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Conference USA standings