Middle Tennessee upsets Florida International 26-23
Team pages: Middle Tennessee · Florida International
Middle Tennessee beat Florida International 26-23 as a 10.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 7%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 7% or less in about 1 of every 18 games since 2018.
We had Florida International favored. Middle Tennessee won.
Next: Middle Tennessee vs Kennesaw State, Wed Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET
Next: Florida International at Liberty, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Kohl 1-yd TD pass to Schaeffer, ties it 16-16 (Q3, 4:03). Middle Tennessee went from 52% to 31% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Middle Tennessee a 22% chance, and the closing betting line (Middle Tennessee was a 10.5-point underdog) put it at 20%.
Middle Tennessee 26-23 Florida International
Middle Tennessee wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida International 23-26 Middle TennesseeFlorida International lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:03Kohl 1-yd TD pass to Schaeffer, ties it 16-16Middle Tennessee 52% → 31% (−21)
- 2Q4 6:06Kohl 21-yd TD pass to Joseph, cuts it to 26-23Middle Tennessee 81% → 61% (−20)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:03Kohl 1-yd TD pass to Schaeffer, ties it 16-16Florida International 49% → 69% (+20)
- 2Q4 6:06Kohl 21-yd TD pass to Joseph, cuts it to 26-23Florida International 19% → 39% (+20)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida International -10.5), at 16% for Middle Tennessee (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Middle Tennessee scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Florida International on 3 of its 12.
Middle Tennessee’s drives are teal, Florida International’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Florida International’s side
Florida International’s best moment: Kohl 21-yd TD pass to Joseph, cuts it to 26-23 (Q4 6:06). It lifted Florida International’s win chance by 20 points.
The winner fell to 6%.
What it cost
Florida International’s chance to win the conference fell from 5% to 2%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 19, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Middle Tennessee plays vs Kennesaw State on Wed Oct 28 with a 4% chance to win the conference. Florida International plays at Liberty on Sat Oct 31 with a 2% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Middle Tennessee 26, Florida International 23
Middle Tennessee covered +10.5 by 13.5. The total, 49, went over 46.5.
| Team totals | Middle Tennessee | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 448 | 347 |
| Passing | 16 of 27, 200 yds | 15 of 29, 179 yds |
| Rushing | 39 for 248 yds | 29 for 168 yds |
| First downs | 20 | 15 |
| Third down | 3 of 13 | 6 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 9 for 57 yds | 5 for 29 yds |
| Time of possession | 33:13 | 26:47 |
Middle Tennessee leaders
- Passing Roman Gagliano 16 of 27, 200 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Terrence Brown Jr. 18 for 158 yds, 1 TD; Antonio Martin 11 for 47 yds
- Receiving Cam'Ron Lacy 6 for 68 yds; Neo Clifton 3 for 62 yds
Florida International leaders
- Passing J.J. Kohl 15 of 28, 179 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Devonte Lyons 19 for 115 yds; Jayden Ford 2 for 27 yds
- Receiving Kyle Mcneal 2 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Maguire Anderson 3 for 34 yds
No rain and calm
79° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 18
October game-day temperatures at Pitbull Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Miami International Airport, 4.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Middle Tennessee · 3-3
Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings, 167th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over Delaware as a 1.5-point underdog.
W 27-20 vs Nevada #182 of 668
won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
Last three games
Florida International · 3-3
Rated 124th in our preseason ratings, 106th now, up 18 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Florida International
- Wk 2Wvs Buffalo33-20
- Wk 3Lat Florida Atlantic10-16
- Wk 4Wvs Long Island University20-3
- Wk 6Wvs New Mexico State22-3
- Wk 7Lat Jacksonville State24-27
Middle Tennessee
- Wk 2Lat Marshall26-28
- Wk 3Wvs Nevada27-20
- Wk 4Lat Jacksonville State13-23
- Wk 5Lat Kansas0-55
- Wk 7Wvs Delaware33-30
Power rating by week
Florida International is rated 4.6 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida International’s explosive plays against Middle Tennessee, 50 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida International’s explosive plays against Middle Tennessee’s defense
Florida International offense, 21st percentile · Middle Tennessee defense, 71st
Middle Tennessee’s success rate against Florida International’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 22nd percentile · Florida International defense, 69th
Middle Tennessee’s passing EPA against Florida International’s defense
Middle Tennessee offense, 37th percentile · Florida International defense, 80th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Middle Tennessee leads the series 14-7
21 meetings since 2005 · Florida International has won the last 2
- 2025Florida International 56-30
- 2024 · neutral siteFlorida International 35-24
- 2023Middle Tennessee 40-6
- 2022Middle Tennessee 33-28
- 2021Middle Tennessee 50-10
Each line is Florida International’s chance to win through that meeting. Florida International is 1-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Florida International fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (70th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Florida International favored by 10.5 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Florida International by 10.5, on the usual path until Q3 3:16
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 386 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Florida International.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −10 → −10.5 · Total: 45.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Florida International is worth +4.1 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 51st percentile.
39% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (15-23 home, 10-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 783 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Florida International4th1-1
- Middle Tennessee5th1-1