The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Skip Holtz

Followed Sonny Dykes. Skip Holtz moved Louisiana Tech from Regional Program II to National Program III in 9 seasons.

The ascent
118–98
2005–2021 · 3 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 6th career season — faster than 12% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #580 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

East Carolina, 5 seasons
+4.6
Regional Program III → Regional Program I.
South Florida, 3 seasons
−3.3
National Program II → National Program II.
Louisiana Tech, 9 seasons
+5.9
Regional Program II → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%60%Louisiana Tech2013–2021▲ 0.9pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Louisiana Tech10.7pt#120 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–7 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Doc Holliday.

Rivalry record
4–7
36.4% · 2 rivals
One-score games
43–38
53.1% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–2
33.3%
Rivalry ledger
NC State1–233%
The toughest matchup
vs. Doc Holliday0–3
3 meetings, 2014–2020
’14 L · blew a 10-pt lead’19 L · blew a 7-pt lead’20 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–2 33.3%
Power Program
6–21 22.2%
National Program
15–27 35.7%
Regional Program
82–43 65.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.45
#30 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.05
#116 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2021
Louisiana Techcaretaker
Regional Program II → National Program III
Skip Holtz moved Louisiana Tech from Regional Program II to National Program III in 9 seasons.

4th-best Louisiana Tech tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+9.2 pts
#65 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+2.9 pts
#88 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Sonny Dykes (2010–2012) · succeeded by Sonny Cumbie (2022–2026).

Season201320142015201620172018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record4–89–59–49–57–68–510–35–53–9
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW bowlW bowlW bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#89#82#94#100#77#83#75#120
Style — pass rate
Pass rate48.852.656.645.952.049.151.249.7
Coordinators
OCTony PetersenTony PetersenTodd FitchTodd FitchTodd FitchTodd FitchJoe SloanJoe Sloan
DCManny DiazBlake BakerBlake BakerBlake BakerBlake BakerBob DiacoDavid BlackwellDavid Blackwell
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7985977227552432
Defense9371117370872317
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.454.661.042.149.246.352.246.7
Red-zone pass%33.343.444.231.942.435.544.943.3
4th-down go%opp. territory17.117.415.617.824.127.532.335.4
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
9
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
11
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-2
#135 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 201 lbs
across 4 of 9 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.8 lbs
#99 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: AL (1), PQ (1), NC (1), GA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
32.1
position-weighted
Talent lost
33.5
position-weighted
Net
-1.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Austin Kendall (QB) from West Virginia
Biggest loss: Jakson Thomson (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tony Petersen → Todd Fitch · 2016the system held
82nd pct85th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 48.5% → 51.6% (+3.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 36% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Todd Fitch → Joe Sloan · 2020the offense slipped
41st pct28th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 47.7% → 49.5% (+1.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 46% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Manny Diaz → Blake Baker · 2015
93rd pct71st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Blake Baker → Bob Diaco · 2019
70th pct87th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Bob Diaco → David Blackwell · 2020
87th pct23rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
207 lbs
6′1″ avg · #537 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
210 lbs
5′10″ avg · #270 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
189 lbs
5′11″ avg · #570 of 791 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
312 lbs
6′4″ avg · #265 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
276 lbs
6′3″ avg · #549 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
220 lbs
6′2″ avg · #704 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #395 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Running back from high school
78%
#177 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Illinois 35–18 Zaxby's Heart Of Dallas Bowl2015: Beat Arkansas State 47–28 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2016: Beat Navy 48–45 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2017: Beat SMU 51–10 Dxl Frisco Bowl2018: Beat Hawai'i 31–14 Sofi Hawai'i Bowl2019: Beat Miami 14–0 Walk-On's Independence Bowl2020: Lost to Georgia Southern 3–38 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

15 NFL Draft picks: Quinton Patton (2013), Jordan Mills (2013), Justin Ellis (2014), IK Enemkpali (2014), Vernon Butler (2016), Kenneth Dixon (2016), Jeff Driskel (2016), Carlos Henderson (2017) + 7 more

64–50
2010–2012
South Floridacaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Skip Holtz held South Florida at National Program II for 3 seasons.

2nd-best South Florida tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Leavitt (2000–2009) · succeeded by Willie Taggart (2013–2016).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

11 NFL Draft picks: Jason Pierre-Paul (2010), Nate Allen (2010), Jerome Murphy (2010), Carlton Mitchell (2010), George Selvie (2010), Terrell McClain (2011), Mistral Raymond (2011), Jacquian Williams (2011) + 3 more

16–21
2005–2009
East Carolinacaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program I
Skip Holtz moved East Carolina from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 5 seasons.

6th-best East Carolina tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed John Thompson (2003–2004) · succeeded by Ruffin McNeill (2010–2015).

7 NFL Draft picks: Guy Whimper (2006), Aundrae Allison (2007), Chris Johnson (2008), Davon Drew (2009), Linval Joseph (2010), Matt Dodge (2010), C.J. Wilson (2010)

38–27