The Zeitgeist List · coaching
Blake Anderson
Followed Gary Andersen. Blake Anderson slid Utah State from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.
The builder
74–55
2014–now · 3 stints
← all coachesIn his own words
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).
Arkansas State, 7 seasons
+5.8
Regional Program II → Regional Program II.
Utah State, 4 seasons
−2.0
Regional Program I → Regional Program III.
Southern Miss, 2 seasons (active)
+0.1
Regional Program V → Regional Program V.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Arkansas State17.2pt#23 of 258 · more than most
Utah State10.1pt#131 of 258 · a typical amount
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
7–2 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Billy Napier.
Rivalry record
7–2
77.8% · 2 rivals
One-score games
20–16
55.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
The toughest matchup
vs. Billy Napier0–3
3 meetings, 2018–2020
’18 L · blew a 3-pt lead’19 L · blew a 7-pt lead’20 L · blew a 6-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood0–2 0.0%
Power Program0–12 0.0%
National Program5–7 41.7%
Regional Program57–27 67.9%
Coaching career
2025–now
Southern Miss
too new to grade yet
15th-best Southern Miss tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+1.5 pts
#105 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+7.0 pts
#74 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Will Hall (2021–2024).
| Season | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 0–1 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #105 | #108 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||
| Pass rate | 49.2 | 42.3 | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Blake Anderson | Kyle Cefalo | |
| DC | Jason Semore | Joe Bolden | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 48 | 66 | |
| Defense | 54 | 75 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 45.1 | 40.0 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 40.2 | 25.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 23.8 | — | |
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
90
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
70
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+20
#1 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 234 lbs
across 65 of 90 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.4 lbs
#138 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#252 of 255 · less than most
Top states: FL (9), MS (7), LA (7), GA (7), TX (5)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
54.2
position-weighted
Net
+2.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Braylon Braxton (QB) from Marshall
Biggest loss: Jacobe Robinson (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Running back via the portal
100%
#1 of 208 stints
Buys Interior line via the portal
86%
#6 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to Western Kentucky 16–27 New Orleans Bowl
AI Narratives — “Southern Miss — stat check”.
0–1
2021–2024
Utah Statecaretaker
Regional Program II → Regional Program I
Blake Anderson slid Utah State from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.
6th-best Utah State tenure of 22 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+8.8 pts
#65 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-3.9 pts
#121 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Gary Andersen (2009–2020) · succeeded by Bronco Mendenhall (2025–2026).
| Season | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 11–3 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 4–8 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | L bowl | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #128 | #80 | #99 | #121 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 47.2 | 42.0 | 46.8 | 52.1 | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Anthony Tucker | Anthony Tucker | Kyle Cefalo | Kyle Cefalo / Cooper Bassett | |
| DC | Ephraim Banda | Ephraim Banda | Joe Cauthen | Bobby McMillen | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 64 | 9 | 51 | 73 | |
| Defense | 71 | 32 | 12 | 33 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 43.7 | 36.2 | 49.0 | 42.9 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 39.7 | 44.9 | 47.3 | 41.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 37.3 | 37.3 | 35.4 | 33.3 | |
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
47
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
81
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-34
#107 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 232 lbs
across 31 of 47 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.9 lbs
#126 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#29 of 255 · more than most
Top states: UT (6), TX (5), AZ (4), CA (4), FL (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
54.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.5
position-weighted
Net
+1.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Levi Williams (QB) from Wyoming
Biggest loss: McCae Hillstead (QB) to BYU
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Anthony Tucker → Kyle Cefalo · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.2% → 49.0% (+12.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 47% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Ephraim Banda → Joe Cauthen · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
219 lbs
6′2″ avg · #191 of 767 · more than most
Running back
204 lbs
5′10″ avg · #518 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
189 lbs
5′11″ avg · #590 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
231 lbs
6′4″ avg · #700 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
312 lbs
6′5″ avg · #251 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
290 lbs
6′2″ avg · #256 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
230 lbs
6′2″ avg · #286 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
181 lbs
5′11″ avg · #737 of 771 · less than most
Safety
189 lbs
6′0″ avg · #320 of 346 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
75%
#5 of 206 stints
Buys D-line via the portal
75%
#18 of 239 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Running back from high school
83%
#186 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2021: Beat Oregon State 24–13 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel2022: Lost to Memphis 10–38 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2023: Lost to Georgia State 22–45 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
1 NFL Draft pick: Jalen Royals (2025)
23–17
2014–2020
Arkansas Statecaretaker
Regional Program II → Regional Program I
Blake Anderson moved Arkansas State from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 7 seasons.
3rd-best Arkansas State tenure of 12 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+16.8 pts
#46 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+14.6 pts
#51 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Bryan Harsin (2013–2013) · succeeded by Butch Jones (2021–2026).
| Season | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||
| Record | 7–6 | 9–4 | 8–5 | 7–5 | 8–5 | 8–5 | 4–7 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | L bowl | W bowl | L bowl | CFP loss | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #95 | #90 | #90 | #111 | #88 | #95 | #92 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||
| Pass rate | 43.8 | 37.5 | 43.7 | 52.5 | 48.2 | 50.7 | 54.7 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||
| OC | Walt Bell / Glen Elarbee | Walt Bell / Glen Elarbee | Buster Faulkner | Buster Faulkner | Buster Faulkner | Keith Heckendorf | Keith Heckendorf | |
| DC | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | Joe Cauthen | David Duggan | David Duggan | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||
| Offense | 55 | 68 | 33 | 47 | 69 | 70 | 85 | |
| Defense | 51 | 46 | 97 | 78 | 77 | 39 | 24 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 39.9 | 35.0 | 35.3 | 55.6 | 47.5 | 50.3 | 54.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 39.8 | 30.4 | 32.5 | 55.2 | 43.0 | 43.2 | 47.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 45.0 | 30.6 | 35.0 | 24.4 | 44.4 | 27.5 | 45.7 | |
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Walt Bell / co-Glen Elarbee → co-Buster Faulkner · 2016the offense slipped
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 37.5% → 45.4% (+8.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 37% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Buster Faulkner → Keith Heckendorf · 2019the offense improved
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 51.6% → 52.4% (+0.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Joe Cauthen → David Duggan · 2019the defense collapsed across the change
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Toledo 44–63 Godaddy Bowl2015: Lost to Louisiana Tech 28–47 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2016: Beat UCF 31–13 Autonation Cure Bowl2017: Lost to Middle Tennessee 30–35 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2018: Lost to Nevada 13–16 CFP2019: Beat Florida International 34–26 Camellia Bowl
1 NFL Draft pick: Ryan Carrethers (2014)
51–37