The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Justin Fuente

Followed Frank Beamer. Justin Fuente held Virginia Tech at Power Program II for 6 seasons.

The ascent

69–54

2012–2021 · 2 stints

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Memphis, 4 seasons

+10.6

Regional Program V → Regional Program II.

Virginia Tech, 6 seasons

−3.7

Power Program II → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Virginia Tech10.3pt#126 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

7–5 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Dabo Swinney.

Rivalry record

7–5

58.3% · 3 rivals

One-score games

17–16

51.5% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

1–3

25.0%

Rivalry ledger

Miami2–340%

Virginia4–180%

Ole Miss1–150%

The toughest matchup

vs. Dabo Swinney0–3

3 meetings, 2016–2020

’16 L’17 L’20 L · blew a 4-pt lead

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

1–3 25.0%

Power Program

7–12 36.8%

National Program

23–18 56.1%

Regional Program

24–15 61.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.10

#107 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.04

#194 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2016–2021

Virginia Techcaretaker

Power Program II → Power Program II

Justin Fuente held Virginia Tech at Power Program II for 6 seasons.

2nd-best Virginia Tech tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-1.8 pts

#120 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-8.3 pts

#140 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Frank Beamer (1987–2015) · succeeded by Brent Pry (2022–2025).

Season	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	10–4	9–4	6–7	8–5	5–6	1–2
Postseason	W CFP	L bowl	CFP loss	CFP loss	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#42	#26	#24	#26	#72	#45
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	41.3	41.4	45.2	35.9	34.9	37.3
Coordinators
OC	Brad Cornelsen	Brad Cornelsen	Brad Cornelsen	Brad Cornelsen	Brad Cornelsen	Brad Cornelsen
DC	Bud Foster	Bud Foster	Bud Foster	Bud Foster	Justin Hamilton	Justin Hamilton
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	59	26	63	53	80	53
Defense	75	87	7	73	12	39
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	44.6	38.7	44.6	36.7	33.0	36.1
Red-zone pass%	40.0	28.9	38.3	36.7	28.9	37.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	20.8	38.8	32.6	26.2	19.5	33.3

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-12

#150 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 228 lbs

across 2 of 7 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+4.4 lbs

#111 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · more than most

Top states: NC (1), GA (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

17.8

position-weighted

Talent lost

49.7

position-weighted

Net

-31.9

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Jordan Williams (DL) from Clemson

Biggest loss: Quincy Patterson (QB) to North Dakota State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

210 lbs

6′2″ avg · #471 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

207 lbs

5′10″ avg · #381 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

197 lbs

6′1″ avg · #194 of 791 · more than most

Tight end

235 lbs

6′4″ avg · #657 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

309 lbs

6′5″ avg · #386 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

263 lbs

6′1″ avg · #727 of 753 · less than most

Linebacker

236 lbs

6′1″ avg · #79 of 772 · more than most

Cornerback

192 lbs

6′0″ avg · #286 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Running back from high school

88%

#189 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2016: Beat Arkansas 35–24 CFP2017: Lost to Oklahoma State 21–30 Camping World Bowl2018: Lost to Cincinnati 31–35 CFP2019: Lost to Kentucky 30–37 CFP2021: Lost to Maryland 10–54 New Era Pinstripe Bowl

20 NFL Draft picks: Kendall Fuller (2016), Dadi Lhomme Nicolas (2016), Chuck Clark (2017), Bucky Hodges (2017), Sam Rogers (2017), Isaiah Ford (2017), Tremaine Edmunds (2018), Terrell Edmunds (2018) + 12 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Christian Darrisaw (2020)

43–31

2012–2015

Memphiscaretakerborderline

Regional Program IV → Regional Program II

Justin Fuente moved Memphis from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 4 seasons.

14th-best Memphis tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+12.8 pts

#58 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

+14.4 pts

#52 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Larry Porter (2010–2011) · succeeded by Mike Norvell (2016–2019).

Season	2012	2013	2014	2015
Record & result
Record	4–8	3–9	10–3	9–3
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	CFP loss
Recruiting rank	—	—	#78	#77
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	41.3	45.2
Coordinators
OC	—	—	Darrell Dickey	Brad Cornelsen / Darrell Dickey
DC	—	—	Barry Odom	Galen Scott
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	44	55
Defense	—	—	89	57
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	—	—	40.2	46.0
Red-zone pass%	—	—	28.8	35.6
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	13.0	14.9

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Darrell Dickey → co-Brad Cornelsen / Darrell Dickey · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 40.2% → 46.0% (+5.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 77% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Barry Odom → Galen Scott · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows K from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2014: Beat BYU 55–48 Miami Beach Bowl2015: Lost to Auburn 10–31 CFP

5 NFL Draft picks: Dontari Poe (2012), Lonnie Ballentine (2014), Bobby McCain (2015), Martin Ifedi (2015), Paxton Lynch (2016)

26–23