The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Kevin Sumlin

Followed Rich Rodriguez. Kevin Sumlin held Arizona at National Program II for 3 seasons.

Peak, then fade
95–63
2008–2020 · 3 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 5th career season — faster than 30% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #251 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Houston, 4 seasons
+11.0
Regional Program I → National Program II.
Texas A&M, 6 seasons
+5.6
Power Program III → Power Program III.
Arizona, 3 seasons
−4.9
National Program II → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%Texas A&M2012–2017▼ 8.0ptArizona2018–2020▲ 6.4pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Texas A&M8.0pt#172 of 258 · a typical amount
Arizona6.4pt#203 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–9 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Les Miles.

Rivalry record
2–9
18.2% · 3 rivals
One-score games
25–24
51.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–4
20.0%
Rivalry ledger
LSU0–40%
Rice2–250%
The toughest matchup
vs. Les Miles0–4
4 meetings, 2012–2015
’12 L’13 L’14 L · blew a 7-pt lead’15 L · blew a 1-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
1–4 20.0%
Blue Blood
0–5 0.0%
Power Program
19–18 51.4%
National Program
13–16 44.8%
Regional Program
42–14 75.0%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.18
#230 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.10
#224 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2018–2020
Arizonacaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Kevin Sumlin held Arizona at National Program II for 3 seasons.

11th-best Arizona tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-11.0 pts
#152 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-28.2 pts
#196 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Rich Rodriguez (2012–2017) · succeeded by Jedd Fisch (2021–2023).

Season201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record5–74–80–5
Postseason
Recruiting rank#61#54#62
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.148.350.5
Coordinators
OCNoel MazzoneNoel MazzoneNoel Mazzone
DCMarcel YatesMarcel Yates / Chuck CecilPaul Rhoads
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense624314
Defense341618
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%39.146.549.2
Red-zone pass%39.750.642.9
4th-down go%opp. territory29.729.023.5
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Grows Safety from high school
100%
#201 of 218 stints

4 NFL Draft picks: Dane Cruikshank (2018), PJ Johnson (2019), Roy Lopez (2021), Gary Brightwell (2021)

9–20
2012–2017
Texas A&Mcaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program II
Kevin Sumlin moved Texas A&M from Power Program III to Power Program II in 6 seasons.

7th-best Texas A&M tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-11.3 pts
#155 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-4.7 pts
#125 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Sherman (2008–2011) · succeeded by Jimbo Fisher (2018–2023).

Season201220132014201520162017Trend
Record & result
Record11–29–48–58–58–57–5
PostseasonW bowlCFP lossL bowlCFP loss
Recruiting rank#5#11#18#13
Style — pass rate
Pass rate55.048.849.247.0
Coordinators
OCJake SpavitalJake SpavitalNoel MazzoneNoel Mazzone
DCMark SnyderJohn ChavisJohn ChavisJohn Chavis
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense58297654
Defense22705453
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%49.347.145.142.3
Red-zone pass%50.042.249.142.9
4th-down go%opp. territory40.721.729.325.6
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat West Virginia 45–37 Autozone Liberty Bowl2015: Lost to Louisville 21–27 CFP2016: Lost to Kansas State 28–33 Advocare V100 Texas Bowl2017: Lost to Wake Forest 52–55 CFP

25 NFL Draft picks: Ryan Tannehill (2012), Randy Bullock (2012), Cyrus Gray (2012), Terrence Frederick (2012), Luke Joeckel (2013), Christine Michael (2013), Damontre Moore (2013), Sean Porter (2013) + 17 more

51–26
2008–2011
Houstoncaretakerborderline
Regional Program II → National Program II
Kevin Sumlin moved Houston from Regional Program II to National Program II in 4 seasons.

14th-best Houston tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Art Briles (2003–2007) · succeeded by Tony Levine (2012–2014).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Donnie Avery (2008), Sebastian Vollmer (2009), Fendi Onobun (2010)

35–17