West Virginia at Texas Tech
Texas Tech (#13, 7‑1) hosts West Virginia (5‑3). The market has Texas Tech favored by 17.5. The model gives Texas Tech a 85% shot. Texas Tech’s offense is at the 78th percentile on success rate; West Virginia’s defense is at the 5th.
How they got here
Last three games
West Virginia · 5-3
Rated 182nd in our preseason ratings, 129th now, up 53 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over TCU as a 10-point underdog.
Last three games
Texas Tech · 7-1
Rated 7th in our preseason ratings, 13th now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Biggest mismatch: Texas Tech’s success rate against West Virginia, 73 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Texas Tech’s success rate against West Virginia’s defense
Texas Tech offense, 78th percentile · West Virginia defense, 5th
Texas Tech’s passing EPA against West Virginia’s defense
Texas Tech offense, 65th percentile · West Virginia defense, 0th
West Virginia’s explosive plays against Texas Tech’s defense
West Virginia offense, 77th percentile · Texas Tech defense, 13th
What’s at stake
West Virginia
- West Virginia needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 72% with a loss.
- A win would be one of West Virginia’s biggest of the season — a 116-spot gap in the power ratings.
Texas Tech
- Texas Tech sits at 43% to make the playoff — 46% with a win here, 23% with a loss.
- Texas Tech is the program that birthed the Air Raid, sustained it through Mike Leach's tenure, and refuses to be anything else.
The series
Texas Tech leads the series 8-7
15 meetings since 1937 · Texas Tech has won the last 2
- 2025Texas Tech 49-0
- 2024Texas Tech 52-15
- 2023West Virginia 20-13
- 2022Texas Tech 48-10
- 2021Texas Tech 23-20
Each line is Texas Tech’s chance to win through that meeting. Texas Tech is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
West Virginia
The chip · vs the national mediaMountaineer fans are tired of their state's only major team being treated as an afterthought, a hard place to recruit, a name from the past. They say Morgantown is the loudest Saturday nobody outside the state bothers to watch — and they wear the slight like armor.
What this game touches
The 2007 Backyard Brawl. Ranked No. 2 and a home win over 4-7 Pitt from the BCS title game, West Virginia lost 13-9 in the season's biggest stunner — and two weeks later Rich Rodriguez left for Michigan. The closest the program ever came to the summit became its deepest scar, and the man at the center of it is now the head coach again.
Texas Tech
The chip · vs the national mediaFans spent years hearing 'where is Lubbock?' and 'fun to watch, never a contender,' then heard a new version in 2025 — that the title was just bought, that the spending makes the championship hollow. They say the trophy counts the same regardless of how it was funded.
What this game touches
The decades of almost. For a generation Texas Tech produced thrilling offenses and signature upsets but never a league title — close calls, bowl trips, and the lingering sense it was a fun program rather than a serious one, a reputation only erased by the 2025 run.
Best players
West Virginia
- Cam Cook (RB) · 923 rushing yards
- Isaiah Patterson (LB) · 48 tackles
- DJ Epps (WR) · 556 receiving yards
Texas Tech
- Austin Romaine (LB) · 66 tackles
- Ben Roberts (LB) · 60 tackles
- J'Koby Williams (RB) · 794 rushing yards
The betting line, and the fans
West Virginia fans are in a better mood than Texas Tech fans (34th percentile vs 2nd among FBS fanbases), even with Texas Tech favored.
Texas Tech favored by 17.5 · Total 64.5
Texas Tech by 17.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Texas Tech’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cool. Bring a jacket.
West Virginia at Texas Tech · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 9:30 pm ET · ESPN · Jones AT&T Stadium.
- 48°feels like
- 4%average rain chance
- 5 mphwind gusts
- 93weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Jones AT&T Stadium: noon Saturdays score 85, 3:30 pm 82, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 85, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 82, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Texas Tech is worth +5.3 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 70th percentile.
66% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (31-16 home, 17-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,282 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Texas Tech
- Wk 4Wvs Sam Houston49-14
- Wk 5Wat Colorado29-7
- Wk 7Wvs Arizona State53-25
- Wk 8Lat Cincinnati24-37
- Wk 9Wvs Arizona34-26
West Virginia
- Wk 4Lvs Oklahoma State24-41
- Wk 5Lat Iowa State42-45
- Wk 6Lvs Arizona31-52
- Wk 7Wvs Cincinnati45-42
- Wk 8Wat TCU24-20
Power rating by week
Texas Tech is rated 14.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 1 point.
Total: 63.5 → 64.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Texas Tech2nd4-1
- West Virginia10th2-3
Last meeting in our History pages
- Texas Tech 49, West Virginia 0Nov 29, 2025
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2021.