The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Gus Malzahn

Followed Josh Heupel. Gus Malzahn held UCF at National Program I for 4 seasons.

Peak, then fade
105–62
2012–2024 · 3 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

It is very critical that we were in very pressure situations

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 2nd career season — faster than 51% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #170 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Auburn, 8 seasons
+5.0
Power Program I → Power Program I.
UCF, 4 seasons
−4.6
National Program I → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%Auburn2013–2020▲ 12.7ptUCF2021–2024▼ 7.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Auburn17.1pt#27 of 258 · more than most
UCF7.5pt#179 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

7–10 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Kirby Smart.

Rivalry record
7–10
41.2% · 4 rivals
One-score games
30–25
54.5% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
2–4
33.3%
Rivalry ledger
Georgia2–625%
Alabama3–443%
South Florida1–0100%
UL Monroe1–0100%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Kirby Smart1–4
5 meetings, 2016–2019
’16 L · blew a 7-pt lead’17 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’17 L · blew a 7-pt lead’18 L · blew a 4-pt lead’19 L
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
2–4 33.3%
Blue Blood
2–9 18.2%
Power Program
24–20 54.5%
National Program
14–14 50.0%
Regional Program
33–7 82.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.22
#77 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.31
#35 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

recruiting effortOne fan's take that season

One fan thinks Gus Malzahn failed to develop young talent

The offensive play calling was perfectly fine. We are devoid of talent post-Malzahn. He ran off everyone.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 28, 2025 · via CFB

Show all 2
scheme identityOne fan's take that season

One fan thinks Malzahn's offense was too predictable and slow-paced

Scott frost gonna make this offense look 18x better with less talent just because of how bad Gus Malzahn fucking is ahahahaha

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 28, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2021–2024
UCFcaretaker
National Program I → National Program I
Gus Malzahn held UCF at National Program I for 4 seasons.

2nd-best UCF tenure of 7 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+11.3 pts
#59 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+3.4 pts
#86 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Josh Heupel (2018–2020).

Season2021202220232024Trend
Record & result
Record9–49–56–74–8
PostseasonW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#55#53#50#35
Style — pass rate
Pass rate45.042.340.937.5
Coordinators
OCGJ Kinne / Tim Harris Jr.Chip LindseyDarin HinshawTim Harris Jr. / Darin Hinshaw
DCDavid Gibbs / Travis WilliamsDavid Gibbs / Travis WilliamsDavid Gibbs / Addison WilliamsTed Roof / Addison Williams
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense49718854
Defense58277571
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%39.435.840.432.7
Red-zone pass%44.732.738.722.5
4th-down go%opp. territory35.348.841.244.1
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
67
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
86
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-19
#60 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 240 lbs
across 51 of 67 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.6 lbs
#26 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#4 of 255 · more than most
Top states: FL (20), GA (10), AL (4), OH (2), TX (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
60.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
62.3
position-weighted
Net
-1.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Joey Gatewood (QB) from Kentucky
Biggest loss: Dillon Gabriel (QB) to Oklahoma
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-GJ Kinne / co-Tim Harris Jr. → Chip Lindsey · 2022
49th pct71st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.4% → 35.8% (-3.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 64% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Chip Lindsey → co-Darin Hinshaw · 2023
71st pct88th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 35.8% → 40.4% (+4.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 68% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Darin Hinshaw → Tim Harris Jr. / co-Darin Hinshaw · 2024
88th pct54th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 40.4% → 32.7% (-7.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 40% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-David Gibbs / Travis Williams → co-David Gibbs / co-Addison Williams · 2023
27th pct75th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-David Gibbs / co-Addison Williams → Ted Roof / co-Addison Williams · 2024
75th pct71st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
207 lbs
6′0″ avg · #557 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
204 lbs
5′10″ avg · #534 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
192 lbs
6′0″ avg · #447 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
236 lbs
6′3″ avg · #646 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
307 lbs
6′4″ avg · #491 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
297 lbs
6′4″ avg · #126 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
225 lbs
6′2″ avg · #561 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
186 lbs
6′1″ avg · #562 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
20%
#24 of 146 stints
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
69%
#32 of 243 stints
Postseason detail2021: Beat Florida 29–17 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl2022: Lost to Duke 13–30 Military Bowl Presented by Peraton2023: Lost to Georgia Tech 17–30 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Richie Grant (2021), Aaron Robinson (2021), Jacob Harris (2021), Tay Gowan (2021), Tre Nixon (2021), Kalia Davis (2022), Javon Baker (2024), Tylan Grable (2024) + 2 more

28–24
2013–2020
Auburncaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program I
Gus Malzahn moved Auburn from Power Program II to Power Program I in 8 seasons.

3rd-best Auburn tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-2.2 pts
#122 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+10.0 pts
#67 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Gene Chizik (2009–2012) · succeeded by Bryan Harsin (2021–2022).

Season20132014201520162017201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record12–28–57–68–510–48–59–40–1
PostseasonL bowlW CFPL bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#6#8#9#9#12#11#7
Style — pass rate
Pass rate35.434.330.937.342.741.948.0
Coordinators
OCDameyune Craig / Rhett LashleeDameyune Craig / Rhett LashleeRhett Lashlee / Kodi BurnsChip Lindsey / Kodi BurnsChip Lindsey / Kodi BurnsKenny DillinghamChad Morris
DCEllis JohnsonWill MuschampKevin SteeleKevin SteeleKevin SteeleKevin SteeleKevin Steele
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense92586167716163
Defense32797593839326
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%22.825.524.930.943.539.541.9
Red-zone pass%27.121.422.125.236.435.240.8
4th-down go%opp. territory12.519.531.015.030.219.521.4
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Dameyune Craig / Rhett Lashlee → Rhett Lashlee / co-Kodi Burns · 2016
58th pct61st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 25.5% → 24.9% (-0.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 57% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Rhett Lashlee / co-Kodi Burns → Chip Lindsey / co-Kodi Burns · 2017
61st pct67th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 24.9% → 30.9% (+6.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 52% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Chip Lindsey / co-Kodi Burns → Kenny Dillingham · 2019
71st pct61st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.5% → 39.5% (-4.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 42% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Will Muschamp → Kevin Steele · 2016
79th pct75th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Wisconsin 31–34 Outback Bowl2015: Beat Memphis 31–10 CFP2016: Lost to Oklahoma 19–35 Allstate Sugar Bowl2017: Lost to UCF 27–34 Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl2018: Beat Purdue 63–14 Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl2019: Lost to Minnesota 24–31 Outback Bowl2020: Lost to Northwestern 19–35 Vrbo Citrus Bowl

37 NFL Draft picks: Corey Lemonier (2013), Greg Robinson (2014), Dee Ford (2014), Tre Mason (2014), Jay Prosch (2014), Sammie Coates (2015), Angelo Blackson (2015), Gabe Wright (2015) + 29 more

68–35
2012–2012
Arkansas Statecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III
Gus Malzahn moved Arkansas State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 1 season.

6th-best Arkansas State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Hugh Freeze (2011–2011) · succeeded by Bryan Harsin (2013–2013).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
100%
#225 of 236 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Demario Davis (2012), Don Jones (2013)

9–3

Defining games during this era

2017 Iron Bowl · Auburn 26, Alabama 142018 Iron Bowl · Alabama 52, Auburn 212014 Iron Bowl · Alabama 55, Auburn 442018 Peach Bowl · UCF 34, Auburn 272017 Iron Bowl rematch (SEC title) · Georgia 28, Auburn 7