FinalTexas A&M 48-20 Arizona StateTexas A&M wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
FinalArizona State 20-48 Texas A&MArizona State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 0:07ASU fans chant loudly while Texas A&M fans criticize Marcel Reed's poor playFriendship with Reed ended, alcohol is my new best friendr/CFB game threadDespite what some have said, this was always going to be a rebuild year. Offensive line is bad, Marcel has very clearly hit his ceiling, and the DL interior is not ideal.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:52Marco Jones returns interception 55 yards for touchdown, extending Texas A&M lead to 38-20Quoted at the top of the page.This scoreboard has NOT been reflective of the gamer/CFB game thread
Q4 8:23ASU fumbles, Aggies recover; fans mock ASU's self-inflicted fourth-quarter collapseASU I'm so sorry that you're now playing like we did in the second half for so many yearsr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:25Humphrey intercepts Boley for a touchdown as A&M fans celebrate the blowoutHow did this become a blowoutr/CFB game threadI looked away. Did defense score again?r/CFB game thread
Texas A&M’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Texas A&M -15.5), at 89% for Texas A&M (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas A&M or Arizona State flair (2,497 and 1,359); both sides share one scale, regulation only.
Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Texas A&M’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Texas A&M fans
elko“This game is more ASU losing rather than A&M winning. I hope Elko has a healthy supply of chairs this week during practice to drive that point home.”
Arizona State fans
reed harris“Reed Harris in 2 games 6 catches, 137 yards, 2 TD 8 catches, 166 yards, 2 TD (18 min left)”
penalties“The muffed punt and these penalties are keeping A&M in this game. We gotta clean it up and we're running out of time”
punt“The muffed punt and these penalties are keeping A&M in this game. We gotta clean it up and we're running out of time”
return“Classic missed hold on A&M on that return, but can’t call anything on them today!”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, half, back, don.
What it cost
Texas A&M’s chance to make the playoff rose from 80% to 81%.
Make the playoff
Arizona State · lost3% → 3%
Texas A&M · won80% → ▲81%
Win the conference
Arizona State · lost3% → 3%
Texas A&M · won22% → ▼20%
Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Texas A&M 48, Arizona State 20
Texas A&M covered −15.5 by 12.5. The total, 68, went over 51.5.
Team totals
Arizona State
Texas A&M
Total yards
369
255
Passing
21 of 34, 254 yds
15 of 25, 163 yds
Rushing
29 for 115 yds
35 for 92 yds
First downs
16
14
Third down
3 of 12
3 of 12
Fourth down
1 of 3
1 of 2
Turnovers
4
1
Penalties
9 for 62 yds
1 for 5 yds
Time of possession
30:04
29:56
Arizona State leaders
Passing Cutter Boley 21 of 34, 254 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Kyson Brown 13 for 66 yds; Cutter Boley 6 for 31 yds
Receiving Reed Harris 9 for 189 yds, 2 TD; Omarion Miller 9 for 29 yds
Texas A&M leaders
Passing Marcel Reed 15 of 25, 163 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Rueben Owens 10 for 35 yds, 1 TD; Jamarion Morrow 8 for 27 yds
Receiving Terry Bussey 4 for 58 yds; Mario Craver 3 for 34 yds, 1 TD
Feels like 98° to 105° through the game
90° at kickoff · feels like 98° to 105° · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the south, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 26
A feels-like 105° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 68 other games played at Kyle Field since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 84°, with about 7 in 10 games between 78° and 88°.
Arizona State 0, Texas A&M 0 · Texas A&M 89% to win
no rain · wind 13 mph from the south-southwest, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 22 · 90°, feels like 99°
Boley 1-yd pass to Miller
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at College Station airport, 2.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Arizona State · 8-5
Rated 54th in our preseason ratings, 52nd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arizona State’s passing EPA against Texas A&M’s defense
Arizona State offense, 24th percentile · Texas A&M defense, 92nd
Arizona State’s EPA/play against Texas A&M’s defense
Arizona State offense, 23rd percentile · Texas A&M defense, 82nd
Texas A&M’s explosive plays against Arizona State’s defense
Texas A&M offense, 5th percentile · Arizona State defense, 58th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Arizona StateTexas A&M
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Texas A&M leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2015 · Texas A&M won the last meeting
2015 · neutral siteTexas A&M 38-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Arizona State fans are in a better mood than Texas A&M fans (58th vs 24th among FBS fanbases), even with Texas A&M favored.
Texas A&M favored by 15.5 · Total 51.5
How games like this usually go
Texas A&M by 15.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Texas A&M.
Spread: −14.5 → −15.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 102° at kickoff.
Arizona State at Texas A&M · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Kyle Field, College Station
102°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
43weather score, Harsh
Middleof the day's 5 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was in the middle of the day's five kickoff times. At Kyle Field that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 59, against 43 at 11 am.
Harsh
Rough
Mixed
Comfortable
Ideal (100)43Harsh37Harsh37Harsh51Rough59Rough
11 am2:30 pm3:15 pm6 pm6:45 pm
11 am: 43, Harsh (this game)
2:30 pm: 37, Harsh
3:15 pm: 37, Harsh
6 pm: 51, Rough
6:45 pm: 59, Rough
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Texas A&M is worth +8.6 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.
77% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (40-12 home, 13-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.3 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±5.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Texas A&M · Q4 8:38Pick-six
Texas A&M wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.