cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Kyson Brown /Arizona State

Kyson Brown

RB · Arizona State · Jr · #1

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

106 RUSH YDS · 0 RUSH TD · 18 CARRIES

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Arizona State for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Arizona State for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Running back · Arizona State

Returning around him

  • 70% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
  • 4 Arizona State players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: +3 net (24 in / 21 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Arizona State · Last season: 8-5 (AP #24) · Talent rank #33 · 2026 recruiting class #44

RB · ARIZONA STATE · BIG 12

Kyson Brown

  • 3
  • #1
  • 6-1 | 205 lb
  • Lancaster, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

29

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 84th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#1631

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2023–2025
1062023
1062025

+0%

Modest growth (0%) across the multi-season window.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1196 national
CFB
College
Arizona State
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#20 in market ▼ from #17 · 6 books

+35002.8% implied▼ lengthened from +2500

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class3
Jersey1
Measurements6-1 | 205 lb
HometownLancaster, TX
Primary teamArizona State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1196 recruit
Composite rating 0.8575 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin Lancaster Lancaster, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8575 No. 1196 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#1631Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#1553Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8575

#1196 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Kyson Brown

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

50

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 3 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 3 mentions · belief +0 · "BYU football game plan target - Kyson Brown, Arizona State Sun Devils &nbsp;&nbs"Own fansNational: 2 mentions · belief +100 · "It's not low low. We literally bring as much back as anyone in the country and "National
  • Own fans · n=3
  • National · n=2

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Kyson Brown

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 4g
106Rush yards
18Carries
0Rush TDs
Per game
26.5Rush yards
4Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
344.5Rush yards
58Carries
0Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 106): needs 71.6/game over remaining 9.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 106): needs 99.3/game over remaining 9.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 106): needs 154.9/game over remaining 9.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1.1/game over remaining 9.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 1.7/game over remaining 9.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 0): needs 2.2/game over remaining 9.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Kyson Brown's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Arizona State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #1631 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 8.5% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Development arc The card should explain why this profile stands out

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 178 106 rush | 72 rec | #425/735 (42nd pct)
Rush TD 0 18 carries | #447/739 (40th pct)
Yards/carry 5.9 Per-rush efficiency | #126/735 (83rd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Efficient runner against FBS RB peers.

Efficient runner

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
18 37th
YDS
106 42nd
YPC
5.9 83rd
TD
0 40th

Receiving

REC
8 55th
YDS
72 59th
YPR
9.0 71st
TD
0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 4 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1W 38-19vs Northern Arizona77310.4034Season-high 73 yds
Wk 2L 20-24@ Mississippi State2115.506
Wk 4W 27-24@ Baylor294.506
Wk 5W 27-24vs TCU7131.906
Total181065.6034
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Arizona State3-9HC: Kenny Dillingham · Balanced
2025Arizona State8-5HC: Kenny Dillingham · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Arizona State181065.90--
2023Arizona State231064.60--
Career2 loaded seasons412125.20--
SeasonTeam
2025Arizona State8729.00--
2023Arizona State9495.40--
Career2 loaded seasons171217.10--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 8 72 rec yds | #248/552 (55th pct)
Usage 8.5% 11.6% rush share | #371/738 (50th pct)
Rushing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 106 #425/735 42nd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #447/739 40th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 5.9 #126/735 83rd pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 8 #248/552 55th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 72 #223/548 59th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Usage Role share 8.5% #371/738 50th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 34 #276/733 62nd pct Metricvs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 18 #464/739 37th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 22 #198/540 64th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 9.0 #159/548 71st pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 0 #169/552 70th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 11.6% #433/738 41st pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 9.8% #364/738 51st pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 8.8% #389/738 47th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 7.9% #300/738 59th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 7.5% #449/738 39th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 5.5% #423/738 43rd pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 5.1% #150/738 80th pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 4 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home2g43.06.20.0
Road2g10.05.00.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins3g31.75.60.0
Losses1g11.05.50.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-74g26.55.60.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

29Below cohort
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: yards / carry (84th). Concern: carries (0th).

Yards / carry#52 / 349 · 84th pct
5.9rush
Rec yards#199 / 338 · 41st pct
72rece
Long run#234 / 349 · 33rd pct
34rush
Receptions#225 / 338 · 32nd pct
8rece
Rush TDs#326 / 349 · 3rd pct
0rush
Rush yards#350 / 349 · 0th pct
106rush
Carries#350 / 349 · 0th pct
18rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Kyson BrownArizona StateJeremiah CobbAuburn· 47% simKamari MoultonIowa· 47% simTae MeadowsTroy· 45% sim
Yards / carry
84
Brown
71
Cobb
62
Moulton
29
Meadows
Rec yards
41
Brown
47
Cobb
53
Moulton
38
Meadows
Long run
33
Brown
51
Cobb
33
Moulton
53
Meadows
Receptions
32
Brown
45
Cobb
63
Moulton
45
Meadows
Rush TDs
3
Brown
62
Cobb
62
Moulton
72
Meadows
Rush yards
0
Brown
88
Cobb
84
Moulton
74
Meadows
Carries
0
Brown
88
Cobb
86
Moulton
84
Meadows

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Kenny Dillingham

Pass share

47.1%

429 pass / 482 run

Plays / game

70.1

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.8%

345 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Kenny Dillingham
Arizona State
2025
Kenny Dillingham
Arizona State

Played his entire career under Kenny Dillingham.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownLancaster, TX
Height6'1"
Weight205 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey1

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Arizona State RB3 #1631 #1553 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Arizona State RB3 #2119 #2597 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Pac-12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Arizona State Big 12 RB 3 No. 1 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lancaster, TX
2024 Arizona State Big 12 RB 3 No. 1 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lancaster, TX
2023 Arizona State Pac-12 RB 3 No. 1 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Lancaster, TX