cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Lyrik Rawls /Kansas

Lyrik Rawls

S · Kansas · Sr · #2

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

72 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Kansas → Arizona State for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Arizona State

2025Kansas
2026Arizona State

S · KANSAS · BIG 12

Lyrik Rawls

  • 4
  • #2
  • 6-1 | 205 lb
  • Marshall, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

58

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 96th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#13174

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#480 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2022–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionS
Class4
Jersey2
Measurements6-1 | 205 lb
HometownMarshall, TX
Primary teamKansas

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 480 recruit
Composite rating 0.8826 HighSchool
Signed with Oklahoma State 2021
Origin Marshall Marshall, TX, USA
Class Profile Context
2021 3-star | 0.8826 No. 480 recruit | HighSchool | Oklahoma State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Arizona State 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 8, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Kansas -> Arizona State 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate
2025 Oklahoma State -> Kansas 3-star | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#13174Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#13113Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Oklahoma State

Composite

0.8826

#480 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Lyrik Rawls

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Lyrik Rawls

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
72Tackles
1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
6Tackles
0.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
78Tackles
1.1Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 72): needs 8/game over remaining 1.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 72): needs 28/game over remaining 1.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 6/game over remaining 1.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Lyrik Rawls is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Kansas's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 1.0 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #13174 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 2 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 72 56 solo | #242/4942 (95th pct)
TFL 1.0 Backfield disruption | #2051/4972 (59th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.

Coverage splashHigh-volume tackler

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
72 95th
SOLO
56 99th
TFL
1.0 59th
SACK
0.0 65th
QBH
3 75th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
7 96th
INT
1 65th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 31-7vs Fresno State550.00.011
Wk 1W 46-7vs Wagner221.00.00
Wk 2L 31-42@ Missouri1040.00.00Season-high 10 tackles
Wk 4W 41-10vs West Virginia430.00.02
Wk 5L 34-37vs Cincinnati1070.00.00
Wk 6W 27-20@ UCF660.00.00
Wk 7L 17-42@ Texas Tech1080.00.02
Wk 9L 17-42vs Kansas State320.00.00
Wk 10W 38-21vs Oklahoma State330.00.01
Wk 11L 20-24@ Arizona430.00.01
Wk 13L 14-38@ Iowa State760.00.00
Wk 14L 21-31vs Utah870.00.00
Total72561.00.017
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Oklahoma State7-6HC: Mike Gundy · Balanced, fast tempo
2023Oklahoma State10-4HC: Mike Gundy · Pass-leaning
2025Kansas5-7HC: Lance Leipold · Run-leaning
SeasonTeam
2025Kansas72561.00.071--
2023Oklahoma State20100.50.0--1--
2022Oklahoma State20151.51.01----
Career3 loaded seasons112813.01.082--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT 1 0 pick-six TD | #308/869 (65th pct)
Pass breakups 7 Coverage disruption | #85/2184 (96th pct)
QB pressures 3 Quarterback hurries | #462/1878 (75th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 72 #242/4942 95th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 1.0 #2051/4972 59th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Interceptions 1 #308/869 65th pct Takeawaysvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 7 #85/2184 96th pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 3 #462/1878 75th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 56 #38/4584 99th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home7g5.00.10.00.6
Road5g7.40.00.00.6

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins5g4.00.20.00.8
Losses7g7.40.00.00.4

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-77g6.70.10.00.7
Weeks 8+5g5.00.00.00.4

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the S cohort

58Solid starter
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: solo tackles (98th). Strength: passes defended (96th). Concern: sacks (23rd).

Solo tackles#38 / 2975 · 99th pct
56defe
Passes defended#85 / 2975 · 96th pct
7defe
Tackles#242 / 2975 · 92nd pct
72defe
QB hurries#457 / 2975 · 82nd pct
3defe
Interceptions#304 / 817 · 31st pct
1inte
Tackles for loss#1936 / 2975 · 28th pct
1.0defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · S · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Lyrik RawlsKansasBlake FletcherAir Force· 87% simAndon ThomasArmy· 78% simRobert FitzgeraldNorthwestern· 76% sim
Solo tackles
99
Rawls
91
Fletcher
100
Thomas
100
Fitzgerald
Passes defended
96
Rawls
67
Fletcher
91
Thomas
86
Fitzgerald
Tackles
92
Rawls
99
Fletcher
99
Thomas
99
Fitzgerald
QB hurries
82
Rawls
92
Fletcher
82
Thomas
55
Fitzgerald
Interceptions
31
Rawls
31
Fitzgerald
Tackles for loss
28
Rawls
28
Fletcher
73
Thomas
85
Fitzgerald
Sacks
24
Rawls
24
Fletcher
51
Thomas
24
Fitzgerald

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Box Safety

Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Peter Manuma’s 2025 season.

Peter Manuma

85%match

Hawai'i · 2025

#2

Quinn Schulte

Iowa · 2022

86%
#3

Beau Brade

Maryland · 2023

84%
#4

Maguire Neal

Missouri State · 2025

80%
#5

Gervarrius Owens

Houston · 2022

All-AACNFL Rd 7
79%

Matches Peter on

Class year
Weight
PD rate

Differs from Peter on

Height (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Beau Brade's senior season at Maryland (2023).

Beau Brade

90%match

Maryland · 2023

#2

Peter Manuma

Hawai'i · 2025

88%
#3

Hunter Wohler

Wisconsin · 2024

All-Big TenNFL Rd 7
84%
#4

Jayden Goodwin

Air Force · 2023

85%
#5

Barrett Carter

Clemson · 2024

All-ACCNFL Rd 4
83%

Matches Beau on

Class year
Height
Weight

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Lance Leipold

Pass share

45.1%

344 pass / 419 run

Plays / game

63.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.1%

293 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach
2022
Lance Leipold
Kansas
2023
Lance Leipold
Kansas
2025
Lance Leipold
Kansas

Played his entire career under Lance Leipold.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMarshall, TX
Height6'1"
Weight205 lb
Class4
PositionS
Jersey2

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Oklahoma State S4 #13174 #13113 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Oklahoma State S4 #11477 #11356 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big 12
2022 Oklahoma State S4 #11051 #10988 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12
2021 Oklahoma State S4 #5643 #5373 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big 12

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Kansas Big 12 S 4 No. 2 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Marshall, TX
2024 Oklahoma State Big 12 S 4 No. 2 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Marshall, TX
2023 Oklahoma State Big 12 S 4 No. 2 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Marshall, TX
2022 Oklahoma State Big 12 S 4 No. 2 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Marshall, TX
2021 Oklahoma State Big 12 S 4 No. 2 | 6-1 | 205 lb | Marshall, TX