Missouri at Arkansas
Missouri (5‑2) at Arkansas (3‑4) — no line posted yet, but the model favors Missouri (83%). Arkansas’s rushing offense is at the 8th percentile; Missouri’s run defense is at the 61st.
This is Battle Line Rivalry — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Missouri · 5-2
Rated 38th in our preseason ratings, 29th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 28-point win over Florida as a 5.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Arkansas · 3-4
Rated 145th in our preseason ratings, 103rd now, up 42 spots.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Vanderbilt as a 5.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Arkansas’s rushing EPA against Missouri, 53 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Arkansas’s rushing EPA against Missouri’s defense
Arkansas offense, 8th percentile · Missouri defense, 61st
Arkansas’s EPA/play against Missouri’s defense
Arkansas offense, 22nd percentile · Missouri defense, 68th
What’s at stake
Missouri
- Missouri needs 1 more win in the final 4 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Missouri has won 4 straight in Battle Line Rivalry — a chance to extend it.
Arkansas
- Arkansas is 3 games back in SEC with 4 left to make it up.
- Arkansas has dropped 4 straight in Battle Line Rivalry — a chance to snap the skid.
The series
Missouri leads the series 13-4
17 meetings since 1906 · Missouri has won the last 4
- 2025Missouri 31-17
- 2024Missouri 28-21
- 2023Missouri 48-14
- 2022Missouri 29-27
- 2021Arkansas 34-17
Each line is Arkansas’s chance to win through that meeting. Arkansas is 0-4 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Missouri
The chip · vs the national mediaFans remember every analyst who called the SEC jump a mistake in 2012, and they note that even after two division titles and three top-15 finishes, the previews still treat Missouri as the league's afterthought.
What this game touches
Five yards from the title game. The 2007 team rose to No. 1 in the BCS before losing the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma — the closest Missouri has come to playing for it all, and the standing definition of the program's almost.
Arkansas
The chip · vs big brotherHog fans say the bluebloods of the SEC have spent thirty years treating Arkansas as a guaranteed win on the schedule — the league's outsider with no neighbor to lean on — and they call the Hogs every week, daring anyone to keep overlooking the whole state's team.
What this game touches
The 2-10 collapse and Pittman's firing. In 2025 the Razorbacks went 2-10, fired the beloved Sam Pittman after a 56-13 home loss to Notre Dame, lost out the rest of the way under interim Bobby Petrino, and turned the program over to Ryan Silverfield — the latest reset in a search for an SEC ceiling that keeps slipping away.
Best players
Missouri
- Nicholas Rodriguez (LB) · 72 tackles
- Jamal Roberts (RB) · 867 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 15th (+4000)
- Santana Banner (S) · 57 tackles
Arkansas
- Chris Marshall (WR) · 601 receiving yards
- Ja'Quavion Smith (LB) · 50 tackles
- Ben Bogle (LB) · 47 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Missouri fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (73rd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Razorback Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 92, 3:30 pm Saturdays 86
Missouri at Arkansas · Saturday, Oct. 31 · Razorback Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Razorback Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Arkansas is worth +2.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 18th percentile.
38% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (19-31 home, 8-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.7 at home vs. away over 92 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 222 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Arkansas
- Wk 3Lvs Georgia17-45
- Wk 4Wvs Tulsa34-6
- Wk 5Lat Texas A&M7-34
- Wk 6Lvs Tennessee17-24
- Wk 7Wat Vanderbilt31-21
Missouri
- Wk 3Wvs Troy27-17
- Wk 4Lat Mississippi State24-31
- Wk 5Wvs Florida45-17
- Wk 6Wvs Texas A&M27-6
- Wk 7Lat Ole Miss3-31
Power rating by week
Missouri is rated 8.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Missouri 50, Arkansas 48Dec 5, 2020
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.