Regular season ·

Missouri beat Arkansas

Arkansas3-648
Missouri5-350Final
Sat, Dec 5 · Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Mo. · Crowd 11,378 · 46°, clearSEC Network

Records are after this game.

Missouri had a 5 percent chance to win with 13:15 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 50-48, December 5, 2020.

How the game turned

Missouri aheadArkansas aheadBiggest swingLow: 5%
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Q4 0:00 Missouri 50, Arkansas 48

Missouri 100% to win

Mevis 32-yd field goal, Missouri wins it 50-48

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 12:12 · Missouri 3, Arkansas 0Mevis 51-yd field goal, Missouri goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q2 7:45 · Missouri 20, Arkansas 13Missouri's win chance rose from 56% to 70%.Rountree 6-yd TD run, Missouri goes ahead 20-13
  3. 3Q2 0:20 · Missouri 20, Arkansas 27Missouri's win chance fell from 50% to 28%.Jefferson 1-yd TD run, Arkansas goes ahead 27-20
  4. 4Q4 7:46 · Missouri 40, Arkansas 40Missouri's win chance rose from 23% to 50%.Rountree 9-yd TD run, ties it 40-40
  5. 5Q4 4:47 · Missouri 47, Arkansas 40Missouri's win chance rose from 62% to 86%.Badie 25-yd TD run, Missouri goes ahead 47-40
  6. 6Q4 0:43 · Missouri 47, Arkansas 48Missouri's win chance fell from 86% to 41%.Jefferson 14-yd TD pass to Woods, two-point try good, Arkansas goes ahead 48-47
  7. 7Q4 0:00 · Missouri 50, Arkansas 48Missouri's win chance rose from 47% to 100%.Mevis 32-yd field goal, Missouri wins it 50-48

Missouri's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:00 left in the 4th quarter, Missouri's chance to win went from 47 percent to 99 percent when Missouri kicked a field goal.

The score went from Missouri 47, Arkansas 48 to Missouri 50, Arkansas 48.

The play: Mevis 32-yd field goal, Missouri wins it 50-48.

What happened next

  1. Missouri's next game: L 14-49 vs Georgia, Dec 12

    7 days later

  2. Arkansas's next game: L 3-52 vs Alabama, Dec 12

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Dec 5, 2020: Arkansas 34, Missouri 17, Nov 26, 2021

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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