The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Ryan Silverfield

Followed Mike Norvell. Ryan Silverfield held Memphis at National Program II for 6 seasons.

50–24
2020–now · 2 stints
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In his own words

I don’t know, when we line up, how we even match up against Utah. I don’t know how we match up with Georgia in our first SEC game from a talent standpoint
He’s a world-class track athlete
Saturday Down South
The bigger question is: Why hasn’t there been success? It’s easy to just say it’s coaching
Saturday Down South
Ryan Silverfield probably has the toughest job of all these guys
Saban · Saturday Down South
You know, Ryan Silverfield probably has the toughest job of all these guys. I mean, I think they only won 2 games last year or whatever, so probably needs to do a lot
Nick Saban · Saturday Down South

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerMEMPHISARKANSASNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelMemphis, 2020: 8-3, National Program II2020Memphis, 2021: 6-6, National Program II2021Memphis, 2022: 7-6, National Program II2022Memphis, 2023: 10-3, National Program II2023Memphis, 2024: 11-2, National Program II2024Memphis, 2025: 8-4, National Program II2025+0.9Arkansas, 2026: in progress, National Program II2026+0.1One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Memphis, 6 seasons (active)
+0.9
National Program II → National Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%Memphis2020–2025▼ 4.9ptArkansas2026–2026– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Memphis6.2pt#209 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

Just 1–2 against Dana Holgorsen.

One-score games
12–12
50.0% · margin ≤8
The toughest matchup
3 meetings, 2020–2022
’20 W · erased a 3-pt deficit’21 L’22 L · blew a 19-pt lead
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
2–2 50.0%
National Program
4–9 30.8%
Regional Program
25–8 75.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.40
#39 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.01
#157 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

job securityOne fan's take

One fan argues Ryan Silverfield is likely to fail as Arkansas's head coach

Sure Ryan. Let's look at this quote in December when you're like 5-8 against SEC coaches and we go *maybe* 3-9.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 23, 2026 · via CFB

Coaching career

2026–now
Arkansas
too new to grade yet

17th-best Arkansas tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Followed Bobby Petrino (2008–2025).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
42
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
43
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-1
#2 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 237 lbs
across 35 of 42 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.1 lbs
#33 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#110 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: GA (7), MS (5), CA (4), TN (4), TX (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.2
position-weighted
Net
-1.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: AJ Hill (QB) from Memphis
Biggest loss: Trever Jackson (QB) to Coastal Carolina
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Linebacker via the portal
86%
#2 of 225 stints
Buys Quarterback via the portal
67%
#16 of 206 stints

4 NFL Draft picks: Julian Neal (2026), Mike Washington Jr. (2026), Fernando Carmona (2026), Taylen Green (2026)

0–0
2020–now
Memphiscaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Ryan Silverfield held Memphis at National Program II for 6 seasons.

4th-best Memphis tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+18.1 pts
#44 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-4.7 pts
#125 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Norvell (2016–2019).

Season202020212022202320242025Trend
Record & result
Record8–36–67–610–311–20–1
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#67#46#58#60#68#60
Style — pass rate
Pass rate51.651.748.052.951.946.7
Coordinators
OCKevin JohnsKevin JohnsTim CramseyTim CramseyTim Cramsey / Larry SmithTim Cramsey / Larry Smith
DCMike MacIntyreMike MacIntyreMatt BarnesMatt BarnesSpence Nowinsky / Jordon HankinsJordon Hankins
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense435457959069
Defense343688463137
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%45.650.045.348.449.242.9
Red-zone pass%49.648.037.434.642.027.8
4th-down go%opp. territory39.045.232.647.537.237.8
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
109
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
129
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-20
#35 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 235 lbs
across 82 of 109 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.2 lbs
#115 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#43 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (14), TN (11), GA (9), FL (8), AL (5)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.4
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.7
position-weighted
Net
-1.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Brendon Lewis (QB) from Nevada
Biggest loss: Markevion Quinn (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Kevin Johns → Tim Cramsey · 2022the offense improved
49th pct76th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 47.8% → 46.9% (-1.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 75% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Mike MacIntyre → Matt Barnes · 2022the defense improved
35th pct67th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: Matt Barnes → co-Spence Nowinsky / Jordon Hankins · 2024
46th pct31st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
211 lbs
6′3″ avg · #432 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
201 lbs
5′10″ avg · #612 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #513 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
245 lbs
6′4″ avg · #359 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
304 lbs
6′4″ avg · #601 of 779 · less than most
D-line
275 lbs
6′3″ avg · #568 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
226 lbs
6′1″ avg · #510 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
187 lbs
6′0″ avg · #536 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Edge via the portal
83%
#9 of 208 stints
Buys ATH via the portal
22%
#22 of 146 stints
Postseason detail2020: Beat Florida Atlantic 25–10 Montgomery Bowl2022: Beat Utah State 38–10 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl2023: Beat Iowa State 36–26 AutoZone Liberty Bowl2024: Beat West Virginia 42–37 Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl2025: Lost to NC State 7–31 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Antonio Gibson (2020), Chris Claybrooks (2020), Dustin Woodard (2020), Kenneth Gainwell (2021), Dylan Parham (2022), Calvin Austin III (2022), Kobee Minor (2025), Travis Burke (2026)

50–24