The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Butch Davis

Followed Ron Turner. Butch Davis moved Florida International from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

Peak, then fade
103–75
1995–2021 · 3 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 1st career season — faster than 59% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #1 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Miami, 6 seasons
−12.2
Blue Blood → Blue Blood.
North Carolina, 4 seasons
+7.2
National Program III → National Program II.
Florida International, 5 seasons
+1.4
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Florida International2017–2021▲ 6.1pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Florida International8.6pt#160 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

6–14 against his rivals. Just 2–8 against Frank Beamer.

Rivalry record
6–14
30.0% · 4 rivals
One-score games
33–31
51.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
6–8
42.9%
Rivalry ledger
NC State0–40%
Duke4–0100%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Frank Beamer2–8
10 meetings, 1995–2010
’95 L’96 L’97 L’98 L’99 L’00 W’07 L’08 L’09 W’10 L
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
6–8 42.9%
Power Program
17–17 50.0%
National Program
24–20 54.5%
Regional Program
41–27 60.3%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.03
#177 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.28
#287 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2017–2021
Florida Internationalcaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III
Butch Davis moved Florida International from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

1st-best Florida International tenure of 6 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+1.5 pts
#105 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-15.9 pts
#166 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Ron Turner (2013–2016) · succeeded by Mike MacIntyre (2022–2024).

Season20172018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record8–59–46–70–51–11
PostseasonL bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#83#69#88#74#83
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.444.344.441.950.5
Coordinators
OCRich SkroskyRich SkroskyRich SkroskyRich SkroskyAndrew Breiner
DCBrent GuyBrent GuyJerod Kruse / Jeff CoppJerod Kruse / Jeff CoppEverett Withers
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense629347828
Defense103151563
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%40.537.938.637.941.2
Red-zone pass%40.228.839.245.046.9
4th-down go%opp. territory24.340.531.830.012.1
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Rich Skrosky → Andrew Breiner · 2021
8th pct28th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 37.9% → 41.2% (+3.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 160% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brent Guy → co-Jerod Kruse / co-Jeff Copp · 2019the defense improved
21st pct54th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Jerod Kruse / co-Jeff Copp → Everett Withers · 2021
56th pct3rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
204 lbs
6′3″ avg · #617 of 767 · less than most
Running back
214 lbs
5′11″ avg · #141 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #542 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
245 lbs
6′5″ avg · #383 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
308 lbs
6′4″ avg · #455 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
265 lbs
6′4″ avg · #712 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
220 lbs
6′2″ avg · #708 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
183 lbs
6′1″ avg · #685 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2017: Lost to Temple 3–28 Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl2018: Beat Toledo 35–32 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl2019: Lost to Arkansas State 26–34 Camellia Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Jonnu Smith (2017), Alex Mcgough (2018), James Morgan (2020), Stantley Thomas-Oliver III (2020)

24–32
2007–2010
North Carolinacaretaker
National Program III → National Program II
Butch Davis moved North Carolina from National Program III to National Program II in 4 seasons.

14th-best North Carolina tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Followed John Bunting (2001–2006) · succeeded by Everett Withers (2011–2011).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Grows Wide receiver from high school
100%
#230 of 243 stints

18 NFL Draft picks: Kentwan Balmer (2008), Hilee Taylor (2008), Hakeem Nicks (2009), Richard Quinn (2009), Brandon Tate (2009), Garrett Reynolds (2009), Brooks Foster (2009), E.J. Wilson (2010) + 10 more

28–23
1995–2000
Miamisustainer
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Butch Davis kept Miami a national power for 6 seasons.

3rd-best Miami tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Followed Dennis Erickson (1989–1994) · succeeded by Larry Coker (2001–2006).

32 NFL Draft picks: Warren Sapp (1995), Patrick Riley (1995), Chris T. Jones (1995), Larry Jones (1995), James Stewart (1995), C.J. Richardson (1995), A.C. Tellison (1995), Yatil Green (1997) + 24 more

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