cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Kendrick Simpkins /Baylor

Kendrick Simpkins

S · Baylor · Sr · #16

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

23 TACKLES · 1 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Baylor for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Baylor for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Safety · Baylor

Returning around him

  • 82% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
  • 2 Baylor players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -1 net (31 in / 32 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Baylor · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #35 · 2026 recruiting class #36

S · BAYLOR · BIG 12

Kendrick Simpkins

  • 4
  • #16
  • 6-0 | 199 lb
  • Montgomery, AL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

47

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 63rd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#11696

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DB AWARD

Jim Thorpe

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

5 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2023

2021

Western Kentucky · S

2022

Western Kentucky · S

2023

Western Kentucky · S

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2024

Baylor · S

2025

Baylor · S

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1278 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2021–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionS
Class4
Jersey16
Measurements6-0 | 199 lb
HometownMontgomery, AL
Primary teamBaylor

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1278 recruit
Composite rating 0.8478 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2020
Origin Percy L. Julian Montgomery, AL, USA
Class Profile Context
2020 3-star | 0.8478 No. 1278 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Baylor 2024
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Dec 17, 2023
Season Move Context
2024 Western Kentucky -> Baylor 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#11696Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#11743Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8478

#1278 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Kendrick Simpkins

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Kendrick Simpkins

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 10g
23Tackles
2Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Projected (13g)
30Tackles
2.6Tackles for loss
1.3Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 23): needs 19/game over remaining 3.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 23): needs 25.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 1): needs 1.7/game over remaining 3.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 1): needs 3/game over remaining 3.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Kendrick Simpkins is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Baylor's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 2.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #11696 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 23 18 solo | #1813/4942 (63rd pct)
TFL 2.0 Backfield disruption | #1443/4972 (71st pct)
Sacks 1.0 Pass-rush finish | #872/4972 (82nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
23 63rd
SOLO
18 74th
TFL
2.0 71st
SACK
1.0 82nd
QBH
1 44th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 24-38vs Auburn111.01.00
Wk 2W 48-45@ SMU220.00.00
Wk 3W 42-7vs Samford331.00.00
Wk 4L 24-27vs Arizona State220.00.00
Wk 5W 45-27@ Oklahoma State440.00.00
Wk 6W 35-34vs Kansas State110.00.00
Wk 8L 36-42@ TCU630.00.00Season-high 6 tackles
Wk 9L 20-41@ Cincinnati100.00.00
Wk 12L 28-55vs Utah100.00.00
Wk 13L 17-41@ Arizona220.00.00
Total23182.01.00
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Western Kentucky8-5HC: Tyson Helton · Pass-heavy, fast tempo
2022Western Kentucky9-5HC: Tyson Helton · Pass-leaning
2023Western Kentucky8-5HC: Tyson Helton · Pass-leaning
2024Baylor8-5HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2025Baylor5-7HC: Dave Aranda · Pass-leaning, fast tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Baylor23182.01.0------
2024Baylor740.50.0------
2023Western Kentucky503312.08.01----
2022Western Kentucky38251.00.021--
2021Western Kentucky19160.00.03----
Career5 loaded seasons1379615.59.061--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 0 Coverage disruption
QB pressures 1 Quarterback hurries | #1051/1878 (44th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 23 #1813/4942 63rd pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 2.0 #1443/4972 71st pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 1.0 #872/4972 82nd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 1 #1051/1878 44th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 18 #1178/4584 74th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home5g1.60.40.20.0
Road5g3.00.00.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins4g2.50.20.00.0
Losses6g2.20.20.20.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-76g2.20.30.20.0
Weeks 8+4g2.50.00.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the S cohort

47Mid-pack
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: passes defended (17th).

Sacks#847 / 2975 · 63rd pct
1.0defe
Solo tackles#1178 / 2975 · 59th pct
18defe
QB hurries#1007 / 2975 · 55th pct
1defe
Tackles for loss#1424 / 2975 · 47th pct
2.0defe
Tackles#1813 / 2975 · 38th pct
23defe
Passes defended#1916 / 2975 · 18th pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · S · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Kendrick SimpkinsBaylorMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 64% simMicah DaveyUTEP· 64% simDaniel WingateMaryland· 63% sim
Sacks
63
Simpkins
80
Parker
63
Davey
74
Wingate
Solo tackles
59
Simpkins
96
Parker
99
Davey
99
Wingate
QB hurries
55
Simpkins
88
Parker
82
Davey
72
Wingate
Tackles for loss
47
Simpkins
87
Parker
91
Davey
87
Wingate
Tackles
38
Simpkins
98
Parker
99
Davey
98
Wingate
Passes defended
18
Simpkins
18
Parker
18
Davey
48
Wingate

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Hybrid Nickel

Moves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB.

S

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jordan Grier’s 2023 season.

Jordan Grier

88%match

Indiana · 2023

#2

Jonathan Capo

Buffalo · 2024

88%
#3

Davondre Robinson

Charlotte · 2022

87%
#4

Dre Pinckney

Coastal Carolina · 2023

87%
#5

Bryson Bonds

Indiana · 2024

86%

Matches Jordan on

PD rate
Tackle volume
Height

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Dave Aranda

Pass share

55.5%

510 pass / 409 run

Plays / game

76.6

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.0%

417 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Pass-leaning, fast tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025

1 coach
2021
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2022
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2023
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2024
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2025
Dave Aranda
Baylor

Played his entire career under Dave Aranda.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMontgomery, AL
Height6'0"
Weight199 lb
Class4
PositionS
Jersey16

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2023)

All-Conference USA

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2023 All-Conference USA all_conference Western Kentucky | Conference USA DB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Baylor S4 #11696 #11743 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big 12
2023 Western Kentucky S4 #12298 #12341 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Conference USA
2022 Western Kentucky S4 #10658 #10635 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Conference USA
2021 Western Kentucky S4 #11779 #11874 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Conference USA

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Baylor Big 12 S 4 No. 16 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Montgomery, AL
2024 Baylor Big 12 S 4 No. 16 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Montgomery, AL
2023 Western Kentucky Conference USA S 4 No. 16 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Montgomery, AL
2022 Western Kentucky Conference USA S 4 No. 16 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Montgomery, AL
2021 Western Kentucky Conference USA S 4 No. 16 | 6-0 | 199 lb | Montgomery, AL