The Zeitgeist List · coaching
Tyson Helton
Followed Bobby Petrino. Tyson Helton held Western Kentucky at Regional Program I for 8 seasons.
57–36
2019–now · 1 stint
← all coachesIn his own words
We’ve got a really good opponent in Nevada. We played them last year. It was a tough, hard-fought game for both football teams. I would expect nothing less in this game as well
I felt like all the quarterbacks competed well throughout camp, but Rodney’s full body of work from spring all the way to now has qualified him to be the starter
You want to peak at the right time and it’s the players that you haven’t been with that you’re trying to get on the same page and this is how we do it and this is the expectation, and this is the standard, and this is how you prepare
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).
Western Kentucky, 8 seasons (active)
+1.1
Regional Program I → Regional Program II.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Western Kentucky18.0pt#21 of 258 · more than most
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
7–0 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Jeff Traylor.
Rivalry record
7–0
100.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
15–14
51.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Buyout owed
$2,916,007
bigger than 32% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Middle Tennessee7–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Jeff Traylor0–3
3 meetings, 2021–2022
’21 L · blew a 3-pt lead’21 L · blew a 7-pt lead’22 L · blew a 7-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood0–3 0.0%
Power Program0–1 0.0%
National Program2–5 28.6%
Regional Program42–23 64.6%
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Offense marginal impact
+0.47
#27 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.17
#67 of 325 · more than most
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
2019–now
Western Kentuckycaretaker
Regional Program I → Regional Program I
Tyson Helton held Western Kentucky at Regional Program I for 8 seasons.
3rd-best Western Kentucky tenure of 6 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+14.8 pts
#49 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+9.0 pts
#68 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Bobby Petrino (2013–2018).
| Season | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||||
| Record | 9–4 | 5–7 | 9–5 | 9–5 | 8–5 | 8–6 | 9–4 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | L bowl | W bowl | W bowl | W bowl | L bowl | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #86 | #80 | #129 | #93 | #130 | #111 | #96 | #81 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||||
| Pass rate | 52.1 | 48.7 | 66.6 | 60.0 | 60.2 | 51.8 | 54.5 | 49.4 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||||
| OC | Bryan Ellis | Bryan Ellis / Ryan Aplin | Bryan Ellis / Zach Kittley | Ben Arbuckle / Josh Crawford | Drew Hollingshead | Drew Hollingshead / Will Friend | Rick Bowie | Bodie Reeder / Joe Bernardi | |
| DC | Clayton White | Clayton White / Maurice Crum Jr. | Maurice Crum Jr. | Tyson Summers | Tyson Summers | Tyson Summers | Da'Von Brown / Davis Merritt | Davis Merritt | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||||
| Offense | 51 | 16 | 98 | 88 | 61 | 62 | 42 | 48 | |
| Defense | 76 | 82 | 63 | 55 | 27 | 12 | 67 | 8 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 47.6 | 51.9 | 70.7 | 59.7 | 53.2 | 48.7 | 49.8 | 54.3 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 45.9 | 43.9 | 74.5 | 58.8 | 60.4 | 53.5 | 49.5 | — | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 36.7 | 48.5 | 37.2 | 51.1 | 47.2 | 53.5 | 38.2 | — | |
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
127
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
155
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-28
#36 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 236 lbs
across 93 of 127 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.7 lbs
#65 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#65 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: FL (18), TX (15), GA (14), AL (6), MS (5)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
58.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.7
position-weighted
Net
-1.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Austin Reed (QB) from Western Kentucky
Biggest loss: Austin Reed (QB) to Western Kentucky
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Bryan Ellis → co-Bryan Ellis / co-Ryan Aplin · 2020
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 47.6% → 51.9% (+4.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 32% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Bryan Ellis / co-Ryan Aplin → co-Bryan Ellis / Zach Kittley · 2021
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 51.9% → 70.7% (+18.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 41% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Bryan Ellis / Zach Kittley → co-Ben Arbuckle / co-Josh Crawford · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 70.7% → 59.7% (-11.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 17% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Ben Arbuckle / co-Josh Crawford → co-Drew Hollingshead · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 59.7% → 53.2% (-6.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 47% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Drew Hollingshead → co-Drew Hollingshead / Will Friend · 2024
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 53.2% → 48.7% (-4.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 38% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Drew Hollingshead / Will Friend → Rick Bowie · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 48.7% → 49.8% (+1.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 33% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Rick Bowie → co-Bodie Reeder / co-Joe Bernardi · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.8% → 54.3% (+4.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 84% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Clayton White → Clayton White / co-Maurice Crum Jr. · 2020
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Clayton White / co-Maurice Crum Jr. → Maurice Crum Jr. · 2021
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Maurice Crum Jr. → Tyson Summers · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Tyson Summers → Da'Von Brown / co-Davis Merritt · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Da'Von Brown / co-Davis Merritt → Davis Merritt · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
221 lbs
6′3″ avg · #153 of 767 · more than most
Running back
204 lbs
5′11″ avg · #510 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #375 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
246 lbs
6′4″ avg · #337 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
304 lbs
6′4″ avg · #581 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
291 lbs
6′3″ avg · #228 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′2″ avg · #472 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #346 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys ATH via the portal
21%
#24 of 146 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
65%
#45 of 218 stints
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Postseason detail2019: Beat Western Michigan 23–20 Servpro First Responder Bowl2020: Lost to Georgia State 21–39 LendingTree Bowl2021: Beat App State 59–38 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl2022: Beat South Alabama 44–23 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2023: Beat Old Dominion 38–35 Famous Toastery Bowl2024: Lost to James Madison 17–27 Boca Raton Bowl2025: Beat Southern Miss 27–16 New Orleans Bowl
5 NFL Draft picks: DeAngelo Malone (2022), Bailey Zappe (2022), Brodric Martin (2023), Malachi Corley (2024), Upton Stout (2025)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Cole Maynard (2025)
57–36
The Zeitgeist List · coordinating
Tyson Helton
Offensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.