The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Brady Hoke

Brady Hoke slid Tennessee from Power Program II to Power Program III in 1 season.

The ascent
105–92
2003–2017 · 4 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 13th career season — faster than 3% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #380 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Ball State, 6 seasons
+0.9
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III.
San Diego State, 6 seasons
+15.3
Regional Program IV → National Program III.
Michigan, 4 seasons
+1.5
Power Program II → Power Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%San Diego State2009–2023▲ 5.2ptMichigan2011–2014– 0.0ptTennessee2017–2017– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
San Diego State6.1pt#212 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

7–12 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Gary Pinkel.

Rivalry record
7–12
36.8% · 5 rivals
One-score games
32–32
50.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Notre Dame2–250%
Ohio State1–325%
Fresno State1–150%
The toughest matchup
vs. Gary Pinkel0–3
3 meetings, 2003–2010
’03 L’04 L’10 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
1–5 16.7%
Power Program
9–25 26.5%
National Program
13–17 43.3%
Regional Program
60–36 62.5%

Coaching career

2017–2017
Tennesseecaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program III
Brady Hoke slid Tennessee from Power Program II to Power Program III in 1 season.

15th-best Tennessee tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-55.2 pts
#209 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-24.3 pts
#186 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Jeremy Pruitt (2018–2020).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints

9 NFL Draft picks: Derek Barnett (2017), Alvin Kamara (2017), Cam Sutton (2017), Jalen Reeves-Maybin (2017), Josh Malone (2017), Joshua Dobbs (2017), Rashaan Gaulden (2018), John Kelly (2018) + 1 more

0–2
2011–2014
Michigancaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program II
Brady Hoke held Michigan at Power Program II for 4 seasons.

12th-best Michigan tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Rich Rodriguez (2008–2010) · succeeded by Jim Harbaugh (2015–2023).

Season2011201220132014Trend
Record & result
Record11–28–57–65–7
Postseason
Recruiting rank#20
Style — pass rate
Pass rate43.4
Coordinators
OCDoug Nussmeier
DCGreg Mattison
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense30
Defense74
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.3
Red-zone pass%25.9
4th-down go%opp. territory20.0
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

13 NFL Draft picks: Jonas Mouton (2011), Steve Schilling (2011), Mike Martin (2012), David Molk (2012), Junior Hemingway (2012), Denard Robinson (2013), William Campbell (2013), Taylor Lewan (2014) + 5 more

31–20
2009–2023
San Diego Statebuilder🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program III → National Program II
Brady Hoke raised San Diego State from Regional Program III to National Program II.

4th-best San Diego State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-3.4 pts
#126 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+34.5 pts
#4 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chuck Long (2006–2008) · succeeded by Sean Lewis (2024–2026).

Season200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Trend
Record & result
Record4–89–48–59–48–57–611–311–310–37–610–34–412–27–64–8
PostseasonL bowlW bowlW bowlL bowlL bowlW bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#73#70#82#77#79#91#103#62#65#78
Style — pass rate
Pass rate40.327.228.730.537.542.636.138.742.141.3
Coordinators
OCBob ToledoJeff HortonJeff HortonJeff HortonJeff HortonJeff HortonJeff HecklinskiJeff HecklinskiJeff HecklinskiRyan Lindley
DCRocky LongDanny GonzalesZach ArnettZach ArnettKurt MattixKurt MattixKurt MattixKurt Mattix
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense33807287341611163721
Defense79999373579797859425
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%33.216.023.324.625.331.933.939.936.831.4
Red-zone pass%27.927.423.234.031.326.532.636.943.230.5
4th-down go%opp. territory16.320.524.413.829.831.648.522.620.932.7
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
13
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
31
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-18
#172 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 236 lbs
across 10 of 13 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.6 lbs
#132 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: CA (5), TX (3), AZ (1), FL (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
46.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.8
position-weighted
Net
-6.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Braxton Burmeister (QB) from Virginia Tech
Biggest loss: Carson Baker (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Bob Toledo → Jeff Horton · 2015
33rd pct80th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 33.2% → 16.0% (-17.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Jeff Hecklinski → Ryan Lindley · 2023
37th pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 36.8% → 31.4% (-5.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Rocky Long → Danny Gonzales · 2017
93rd pct73rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Danny Gonzales → Zach Arnett · 2018
73rd pct57th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
216 lbs
6′3″ avg · #306 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
200 lbs
5′10″ avg · #639 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
192 lbs
6′1″ avg · #439 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
252 lbs
6′5″ avg · #142 of 731 · more than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
309 lbs
6′5″ avg · #398 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
268 lbs
6′3″ avg · #689 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
227 lbs
6′2″ avg · #457 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #223 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #208 of 346 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
96%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Navy 16–17 San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl2015: Beat Cincinnati 42–7 Hawai'i Bowl2016: Beat Houston 34–10 Las Vegas Bowl Presented By Geico2017: Lost to Army 35–42 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2018: Lost to Ohio 0–27 Dxl Frisco Bowl2019: Beat Central Michigan 48–11 New Mexico Bowl2021: Beat UTSA 38–24 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl2022: Lost to Middle Tennessee 23–25 EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl

25 NFL Draft picks: Lance Louis (2009), Vincent Brown (2011), Demarco Sampson (2011), Ronnie Hillman (2012), Miles Burris (2012), Ryan Lindley (2012), Jerome Long (2012), Gavin Escobar (2013) + 17 more

Coach of the Year: Mountain West Coach of the Year (2021)

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Matt Araiza (2021), Cameron Thomas (2021)

40–32
2003–2008
Ball Statecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program III
Brady Hoke moved Ball State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 6 seasons.

5th-best Ball State tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Lynch (1995–2002).

5 NFL Draft picks: Dante Ridgeway (2005), Justin Beriault (2005), Reggie Hodges (2005), Robert Brewster (2009), Nate Davis (2009)

34–38