Baylor

Baylor's arc is unlike any program in the Big 12. The world's largest Baptist university spent decades as a Southwest Conference and then Big 12 also-ran, got its first Heisman with Robert Griffin III in 2011, built an offensive revolution under Art Briles, crashed to the bottom of the sport when that era ended in scandal, and then rebuilt itself on faith into a 2021 Big 12 champion under Dave Aranda — a 21-16 title game over Oklahoma State sealed at the goal line, followed by a 21-7 Sugar Bowl rout of Ole Miss. The full range of college football's highs and lows, compressed into one program on the banks of the Brazos River.

The 2025 slide reopened the question the 2021 title was supposed to answer. Aranda's defense, always the identity of his rebuild, ranked near the bottom of FBS at 31.9 points allowed per game. Robertson — a genuinely gifted quarterback — could not outscore a unit that could not stop anyone. Baylor went 5-7, missed a bowl for the first time since 2020, and the question of whether the Aranda program had topped out became audible. The program's public response: retain Aranda, cite stability, commit to the rebuild. That decision moved belief in the offseason — at minimum, it ended the tenure uncertainty and let a roster recruit around a known coach.

The 2026 season has one clear adjudicator: the defense. Robertson or his successor gives Baylor a passing attack that can compete in the Big 12. The McLane Stadium atmosphere, the faith-rooted culture, the Revivalry against TCU — those are real structural assets. What 2026 will answer is whether Aranda can return his side of the ball to the standard that made the 2021 run possible. If the defense approaches competence, Baylor is a bowl team. If it does not, the stability argument becomes harder to sustain.