Next game: vs Iowa State
Baylor’s best edge on Iowa State is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Baylor offense against Iowa State defense
Iowa State offense against Baylor defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.21 EPA/play | 2 | 6 | 129 / 242 | 53.3 | 1671 #57 FBS | 6.9 | 13 #41 FBS | 4 | 125.7 | 42 | 61.5 | 6.5 | 5.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 242 pass attempts and 37 carries in 6 games. More passes and runs a game than nearly every FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Lagway operates within the system without forcing anything. Bachmeier is the one who runs when the pocket breaks down. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.3 bottom 34th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like the one real worry is the accuracy — bottom 5% of FBS quarterbacks in completion rate. | ||||||||||||||
| +0.27 EPA/play | 12 | 3 | 46 / 61 | 75.4 | 568 | 9.3 | 5 | 2 | 174.1 | 57 | 57.2 | 8.5 | 6.2 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.07 EPA/play | 35 | 8 | 94 | 339 | 3.6 | 2 | 17 | 14.9 | 5.3 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 94 carries and 6 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Pendergrass just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Martin is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight225 lb 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry3.8 bottom 10th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dawson Pendergrass's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.10 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 74 | 334 | 4.5 | 3 | 75 | 16.7 | 6.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 74 carries and 5 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Caden Knighten's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.08 EPA/play | 25 | 7 | 45 | 295 | 6.6 | 1 | 63 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 45 carries and 5 catches in 7 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Morris hits the crease and outruns the angle. Martin is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry7.2 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.2% bottom 19th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ryelan Morris's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.02 EPA/play | 23 | 7 | 49 | 202 | 4.1 | 0 | 25 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 49 carries and 7 catches in 7 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Turner does a little of everything without one standout trait. Martin is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry4.7 bottom 29th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Michael Turner's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.69 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 63 | 792 #10 FBS | 12.6 | 3 | 77 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Impact starter — 63 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too This week's matchup — WR Freeman wins underneath on volume and route precision. Glasker is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume63 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)57.6 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gavin Freeman's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.42 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 22 | 345 | 15.7 | 3 | 51 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Louis Brown's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.35 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 14 | 273 | 19.5 | 2 | 53 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Porter beats you over the top. Glasker is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception17.5 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jadon Porter's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.39 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 13 | 257 | 19.8 | 4 #70 FBS | 43 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR McGowan moves the chains on third down. Glasker is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception14.1 57th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate30.8% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden McGowan's full player page | ||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +1.05 EPA/play | 10 | 7 | 12 | 132 | 11 | 3 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. This week's matchup — TE Livingston is the first read once you cross the 20. Lyons is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt TD rate25.0% 96th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.1 94th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tony Livingston's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.85 EPA/play | 86 | 7 | 8 | 107 | 13.4 | 1 | 28 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Hawkins Polley's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.48 EPA/play | 1 | 4 | 7 | 101 | 14.4 | 1 | 36 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.04 EPA/play | 18 | 4 | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 | 18 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.30 EPA/play | 85 | 5 | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 1 | 11 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 13 | 8 | 22 | 15 | 9 #31 FBS | 3.5 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate40.9% 98th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Garrick Ponder's full player page | |||||||
| Speed Rusher | 9 | 7 | 16 | 9 | 4.5 | 3 | 1 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate18.8% 84th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ryan Davis's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 91 | 7 | 16 | 12 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 3 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate46.9% 100th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Traevon Mitchell's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 6 | 15 | 6 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jamaal Whyce's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | — | 8 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight306 lb 77th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Hosea Wheeler's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 40 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Kyler Jordan's full player page | |||||||
| 93 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 96 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| 97 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 3 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 5 | 8 | 54 | 39 | 15 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Starter — 54 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume54 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View Travion Barnes's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 10 | 7 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.8 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.2% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kyland Reed's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 36 | 8 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.4% bottom 30th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kedrick Walker's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 41 | 8 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate10.4% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaleb Burns's full player page | |||||||||
| 56 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 24 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 3 #16 FBS | 3 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — 42 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Micah Gifford's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 7 | 8 | 32 | 3 | 4 #6 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Perimeter tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 32 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume32 89th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Devon Jordan's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 11 | 6 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 26 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Devin Turner's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3.5 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 51th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Daniel Cobbs's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 25 | 8 | 23 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate30.4% 94th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Levar Thornton Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 15 | 7 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% 59th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Colby McCalister's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 17 | 8 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.0% 83th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tyler Turner's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 21 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3.5 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume19 bottom 17th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Bo Onu's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 22 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.2% 66th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Reggie Bush II's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 98 | 8 | 15/21 | 71.4 | 26/27 | 71 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 94 | 8 | 31 | 1519 | 49 | 72 | 11 | 7 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.39 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 14 | 171 | 12.2 | 0 | 36 |
Biggest plays from Baylor’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Baylor’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q3, 13:29 · Baylor breaks the tieDevon Jordan takes an interception 42 yards for a pick-sixBaylor at Kansas, week 8Q3, 13:29 · Baylor 14, Kansas 742Pick-six42Pick-sixPick-sixI.Marshall pass intercepted by D.Jordan at KU42 D.Jordan return 42 yards to the KU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Big 12 Conference- Q1, 3:01 · Baylor up 4D.J. Lagway finds Tony Livingston for a 3-yard touchdownBaylor at Arizona State, week 5Q1, 3:01 · Baylor 14, Arizona State 3▲20%Baylor’s chance to win, 57% to 77%▲20%Baylor’s chance to win, 57% to 77%D.Lagway pass complete short right to T.Livingston caught at ASU00, for 3 yards to the ASU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play Big 12 Conference
Q2, 1:51 · Arizona State down 15Cutter Boley finds Omarion Miller for a 30-yard touchdownBaylor at Arizona State, week 5Q2, 1:51 · Arizona State 13, Baylor 21Arizona State scored with 1:51 left in the halfArizona State scored with 1:51 left in the halfC.Boley pass complete deep middle to O.Miller caught at BAY00, for 30 yards to the BAY00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Big 12 Conference- Q1, 9:13 · Baylor down 3, takes the leadRyelan Morris runs 63 yards for a touchdownBaylor at Arizona State, week 5Q1, 9:13 · Baylor 7, Arizona State 36363-yard touchdown run6363-yard touchdown run63-yard touchdown runR.Morris rush left for 63 yards gain to the ASU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Big 12 Conference
Q3, 14:16 · TCU up 1Jaden Craig finds Ka'Morreun Pimpton for an 8-yard touchdownTCU at Baylor, week 7Q3, 14:16 · TCU 14, Baylor 6▲18%TCU’s chance to win, 46% to 64%▲18%TCU’s chance to win, 46% to 64%J.Craig pass complete short left to K.Pimpton caught at BAYLOR00, for 8 yards to the BAYLOR00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 9:02 · Baylor breaks the tieD.J. Lagway finds Jadon Porter for a 33-yard touchdownColorado at Baylor, week 4Q4, 9:02 · Baylor 20, Colorado 13Go-ahead touchdown for Baylor in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for Baylor in the fourth quarterD.Lagway pass complete deep left to J.Porter caught at COLO01, for 33 yards to the COLO00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Baylor lost at Kansas after being 86% to win; the closest win was at Arizona State, down to 32%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Baylor during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Baylor
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · BaylorGavin Freeman leads Baylor with 792 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+23 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Baylor fields a capable explosive, big-play offense behind an elite defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Baylor reads strongest in EPA allowed (top 3%) and red-zone defense (top 4%); the crux lives in red-zone finish, where Baylor sits at the 19th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Baylor has had no measurable home edge: +0.5 points, home against road.
No measurable home edge, 4th percentile of 133 programs
55% at home, 48% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (26-21 home, 21-23 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Baylor has beaten the number by −5.3 more at home than away over 99 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
McLane Stadium seats 45,140 and has averaged 94% full (42,466, 31 games reported). Visitors cover a median 316 miles to get here since 2018 — 43rd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 28% of the 2026 roster (39 of 139 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogAshtyn Hawkins produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- UnderdogKole Wilson produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- UnderdogMichael Trigg produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatAshtyn Hawkins is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Garbage timeJosh Cameron sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Deep threatMichael Trigg is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Garbage timeMichael Turner sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Dawson Pendergrass and Caden Knighten split the carries (94/166 vs 72/166) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Gavin Freeman (WR) and Hawkins Polley (TE) split the targets (87/98 vs 11/98) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Hawkins Polley produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Baylor actually scores
36th percentile quality, 63rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Baylor’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 43rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 39th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Baylor hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
15th percentile success on standard downs, 46th on passing downs — a 31-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Baylor by half
1st-half offense ranks 42nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 34th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Baylor’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.13; 63rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.18 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Baylor’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Baylor’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.3% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 256-play sample) — mid-pack, 17 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Baylor’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 230-play sample) — mid-pack, 39 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 67% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
6 of 9 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 21% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
9 interceptions of 42 disrupted passes (33 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 68 penalties committed vs. 52 drawn on opponents, a 134-yard deficit.
602 penalty yards committed vs. 468 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Baylor
Most similar programs · BaylorReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
McLane Stadium, Waco, TX
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 63°, between 49° and 75° in about 7 in 10 games (30 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 65°, and 8 in 10 ran between 48° and 84° (50 of 51 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.