TCU 17-6 Baylor (Oct 17, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: TCU · Baylor

TCU3-317

Baylor4-26Final

Sat, Oct 17 · McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas · Crowd 46,634

TCU beat Baylor 17-6.

We had Baylor favored. TCU won.

Next: TCU vs West Virginia, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · TCU favored by 9.5

Next: Baylor at Kansas, Sat Oct 24 · 1:00 PM ET · Baylor favored by 3

Top comment in the game thread

DJ Lagway has tied the FBS record for incompletions on a game

Q4 1:24 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Lagway incomplete to TCU, turnover on downs (Q4, 1:02). TCU went from 100% to 73% to win. Fans right then: “DJ Lagway has tied the FBS record for incompletions on a game” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave TCU a 29% chance, and the closing betting line (TCU was a 3.5-point underdog) put it at 39%.

A tight one: TCU bottomed out at 29% and won.

Up to 71% in the first quarter, then Baylor lost it.

FinalTCU 17-6 BaylorTCU wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 6:14Craig 25-yd TD pass to Small, TCU goes ahead 7-0TCU 42% → 57% (+15)
2Q3 14:16Craig 8-yd TD pass to Pimpton, TCU leads 14-6TCU 46% → 64% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 6:14Craig 25-yd TD pass to Small, TCU goes ahead 7-0Baylor 58% → 43% (−15)
2Q3 14:16Craig 8-yd TD pass to Pimpton, TCU leads 14-6Baylor 54% → 36% (−18)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 0:29Baylor misses a field goal as TCU leads 7-0 with 29 seconds left in the first quarterCan we just cancel all future byes, take the first week off.r/CFB game thread
Q2 9:55Officials overturn Lagway's touchdown pass to Miller after reviewIt is truly amazing how Lagway is great at difficult throws and terrible at easy throwsr/CFB game thread
Q2 2:24TCU fans rage as Craig throws interception to GiffordI never ever ever want to hear about how Jaden Craig is smart because he's from Harvard ever againr/CFB game thread
Q2 1:54Don’t worry Bears, you’re getting the ball back in 3 playsr/CFB game threadDamn that’s a fair call.r/CFB game thread
Q3 1:19Baylor fans demand Lagway be benched after Johnson intercepts his passBench DJ. This is ridiculous.r/CFB game thread
Q4 8:07Baylor fans rage as Lagway throws incomplete passes leading to a turnover on downsHe has a coaching problemr/CFB game threadWHAT IS THAT PLAY CALL???????r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:24Baylor fans rage at Lagway's incompletions and Aranda's clock managementQuoted at the top of the page.

TCU’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Baylor -3.5), at 32% for TCU (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Baylor or TCU flair (283 and 115); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show TCU’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

TCU scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Baylor on 2 of its 13.

TCU’s drives are teal, Baylor’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Baylor’s side

Baylor’s best moment: Lagway incomplete to TCU, turnover on downs (Q4 1:02). It lifted Baylor’s win chance by 27 points.

How Baylor fans took it: “What an embarrassment of a football game.” r/CFB game thread

“Lagway got paid $200,000 for this game”

A Baylor fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The closing stretch drew the loudest reaction of the night.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

TCU fans

craig“I never ever ever want to hear about how Jaden Craig is smart because he's from Harvard ever again”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: fire, tonight.

What it cost

Baylor’s chance to make the playoff fell from 6% to 3%.

Make the playoff

TCU · won0% → 0%

Baylor · lost6% → ▼3%

Win the conference

TCU · won0% → 0%

Baylor · lost6% → ▼3%

Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Baylor plays at Kansas on Sat Oct 24 with a 3% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

TCU 17, Baylor 6

TCU covered +3.5 by 14.5. The total, 23, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	TCU	Baylor
Total yards	327	310
Passing	21 of 36, 294 yds	22 of 53, 256 yds
Rushing	30 for 33 yds	34 for 54 yds
First downs	18	23
Third down	7 of 16	6 of 21
Fourth down	0 of 0	4 of 6
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	8 for 85 yds	7 for 65 yds
Time of possession	31:36	28:24

TCU leaders

Passing Jaden Craig 21 of 36, 294 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Landon Walker 6 for 36 yds; Jon Denman 6 for 14 yds
Receiving Jordan Dwyer 6 for 150 yds; Ed Small 7 for 91 yds, 1 TD

Baylor leaders

Passing D.J. Lagway 22 of 53, 256 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Caden Knighten 10 for 35 yds; Ryelan Morris 8 for 25 yds
Receiving Gavin Freeman 7 for 76 yds; Louis Brown 5 for 74 yds

No rain through the game

68° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 73°, with about 7 in 10 games between 58° and 84°.

October game-day temperatures at McLane Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:02 left9:32 p.m.

TCU 17, Baylor 6 · Baylor 27% to win

no rain · 54°

Lagway incomplete to TCU, turnover on downs

Measured at Waco airport, 6.0 miles away, and Waco airport, 7.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

This is Revivalry — see the full head-to-head history →

Recent games

Last three games

TCU · 2-3

Rated 49th in our preseason ratings, 45th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-17 vs BYUTop 25 #9 of 668

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 13-21 @ UCF #80 of 668

lost by 8 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 31-7 vs Arkansas State #151 of 668

won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 63-7 vs Grambling #184 of 668

won by 56 as a 44.5-point favorite

L 10-15 vs North Carolina #127 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite

Last three games

Baylor · 4-1

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 29th now.

Three straight wins, capped by a 36-point win over Arizona State as a 3.5-point underdog.

W 55-19 @ Arizona State #65 of 668

won by 36 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 23-13 vs Colorado #119 of 668

won by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 36-19 vs Louisiana Tech #91 of 668

won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M #108 of 668

won by 41 as a 37.5-point favorite

L 16-17 @ Auburn #70 of 668

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog

Week by week

Baylor

Wk 1Lat Auburn16-17
Wk 2Wvs Prairie View A&M44-3
Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Tech36-19
Wk 4Wvs Colorado23-13
Wk 5Wat Arizona State55-19

TCU

Wk 1Lvs North Carolina10-15
Wk 2Wvs Grambling63-7
Wk 3Wvs Arkansas State31-7
Wk 4Lat UCF13-21
Wk 5Lvs BYU10-17

Power rating by week

Baylor is rated 2.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: TCU’s rushing EPA against Baylor, 89 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

TCU’s rushing EPA against Baylor’s defense
TCU offense, 9th percentile · Baylor defense, 98th
Baylor’s success rate against TCU’s defense
Baylor offense, 10th percentile · TCU defense, 89th
TCU’s explosive plays against Baylor’s defense
TCU offense, 66th percentile · Baylor defense, 42nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

TCUBaylor

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

TCU leads the series 60-50-5

115 meetings since 1903 · TCU won the last meeting

2025TCU 42-36
2024Baylor 37-34
2023TCU 42-17
2022TCU 29-28
2021TCU 30-28

Each line is Baylor’s chance to win through that meeting. Baylor is 2-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Baylor fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (29th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Baylor favored by 3.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Baylor by 3.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward TCU.

The total fell 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Baylor has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.9 points (±3.9), home against road — 5th percentile of FBS.

55% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (26-21 home, 20-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 81 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

TCU 42, Baylor 36Oct 18, 2025

Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Baylor5th2-0
TCU15th0-2

Full Big 12 standings

TCU beats Baylor 17-6