The model has BYU trending up — this isn't a vibe, it's a measurement.
- Coverage leans bullish — but with real dissent
- Win total 8.5 — line up since open
- Sitake's 26-11 run has BYU in dynasty-caliber territory for the first time since its ti…
How it developed newest first
BYU: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
why it mattersKalani Sitake enters his 8th season with a 12-2 record and a national title legacy, balancing BYU's religious identity and Big 12 ambitions as coordinator changes reshape key units. ~ our read
BYU signed a top-21 recruiting class.
a top-2 recruiting class in the Big 12
why it mattersRyder Lyons (#38 QB) joins a program with 93% QB production returning and a 12-2 record — Kalani Sitake’s class is an addition, not a rescue, to a core already built for sustained success. ~ our read
BYU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 17% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 34% a year ago.
a 26-11 record over the last three regular seasons
why it mattersSitake's 26-11 run has BYU in dynasty-caliber territory for the first time since its title era, but the market projects just 8.5 wins this season. ~ our read
BYU enters 2025 rated No. 18 in SP+ (+15.9).
top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
why it mattersBYU enters 2025 at No. 18 in SP+ — the 12-2 record under Kalani Sitake raises the question of whether top-quintile returning production can sustain this ceiling. ~ our read
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The non-obvious consequence of climbing the power tiers is the expectation tax: the same season that looked like a breakout last year now reads as a disappointment. Watch whether the schedule lets the run actually show up on the field.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter — power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
The range the bull case vs the counter
“Several BYU Players Getting All-Big 12 Buzz As Fall Camp Begins”
“GO-TIME: BYU Cougars HUNTED, Not Hunters—Will Pressure DESTROY Their College Football Playoff Hopes?”