Next game: at Arizona
TCU’s best edge on Arizona is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
TCU offense against Arizona defense
Arizona offense against TCU defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.14 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 175 / 269 | 65.1 | 2207 #11 FBS | 8.2 | 11 #57 FBS | 6 | 143.0 | 44 | 57.3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 269 pass attempts and 67 carries in 8 games, more passes and runs a game than nearly every FBS quarterback who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaden Craig's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · -0.08 EPA/play | 26 | 6 | 88 | 429 | 4.9 | 2 | 48 | 16.1 | 13.8 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 88 carries and 18 catches in 6 games. More touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Payne wins in space out of the backfield. Jr. is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Receiving share17.0% 88th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.8 bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremy Payne's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.22 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 47 | 158 | 3.4 | 2 | 28 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 47 carries and 2 catches in 7 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Denman does a little of everything without one standout trait. Jr. is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry3.7 bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share4.1% bottom 12th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Jon Denman's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Move TE · +0.83 EPA/play | 81 | 8 | 38 | 560 #52 FBS | 14.7 | 4 #70 FBS | 37 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. Impact starter — 38 catches and 5 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Ashley creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Oakley is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception14.9 86th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume38 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kari Ashley's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.53 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 40 | 548 #56 FBS | 13.7 | 2 | 57 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Starter — 40 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Ed Small's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.68 EPA/play | 7 | 4 | 27 | 409 | 15.1 | 0 | 67 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Dwyer moves the chains on third down. Tibbs is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.4 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Dwyer's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.32 EPA/play | 6 | 6 | 15 | 203 | 13.5 | 1 | 52 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Scott beats you over the top. Tibbs is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.6 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jeremy Scott's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.36 EPA/play | 80 | 7 | 14 | 196 | 14 | 0 | 29 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Hayes moves the chains on third down. Tibbs is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.6 62th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacobe Hayes's full player page | ||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +0.49 EPA/play | 88 | 8 | 13 | 152 | 11.7 | 4 #70 FBS | 40 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. This week's matchup — TE Pimpton is the first read once you cross the 20. Oakley is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt TD rate30.8% 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Yards / reception5.4 bottom 6th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ka'Morreun Pimpton's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 92 | 8 | 32 | 22 | 5.5 | 4 | 0 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — 32 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.2% 57th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ansel Din-Mbuh's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 95 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Markis Deal's full player page | |||||||
| 90 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 37 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 50 tackles in 7 games. More tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Hudson Hooper's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 3 | 7 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 36 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Max Carroll's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 97 | 8 | 26 | 19 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Starter — 26 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate3.8% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Paul Oyewale's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 14 | 8 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.2% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate11.1% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View John Schobel's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 4 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Michael Short's full player page | |||||||||
| 16 | 6 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 5.5 | 5.5 #29 FBS | 1 | 0 | |
| — | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 2 | 7 | 50 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 50 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume50 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jamel Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 1 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 27 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Vernon Glover's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 22 | 8 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 67th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jordan Lester's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 4 | 6 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'3" 96th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Gil Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 6 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 6.5 | 2 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume19 bottom 17th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kylin Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Kaden Mcfadden's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 15 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Devyn Hidrogo's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Julius Simms's full player page | |||||||
| 21 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 99 | 6 | 7/10 | 70 | 19/19 | 40 | 45 |
| 34 | 2 | 1/1 | 100 | 3/3 | 6 | 31 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 48 | 8 | 34 | 1466 | 43.1 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.79 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 7 | 129 | 18.4 | 0 | 24 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.79 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 9 | 99 | 11 | 0 | 22 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.53 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 9 | 79 | 8.8 | 0 | 33 |
Biggest plays from TCU’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in TCU’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:11 · TCU down 2, takes the leadJaden Craig runs 17 yards for a touchdownKansas at TCU, week 9Q4, 1:11 · TCU 22, Kansas 161:11Go-ahead touchdown for TCU with 1:11 left1:11Go-ahead touchdown for TCU with 1:11 leftGo-ahead touchdown for TCU with 1:11 leftJ.Craig rush right for 17 yards gain to the KU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN J.Dwyer pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
Q4, 0:34 · TCU down 4TCU turns it overWest Virginia at TCU, week 8Q4, 0:34 · TCU 20, West Virginia 24▼24%TCU’s chance to win, 52% to 28%▼24%TCU’s chance to win, 52% to 28%J.Craig sacked for loss of 9 yards to the WVU23 (N.Gabriel), fumble by J.Craig recovered by WVU B.Cutter at WVU23, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 4:38 · TCU down 13Max Carroll takes an interception 60 yards for a pick-sixKansas at TCU, week 9Q3, 4:38 · TCU 7, Kansas 1360Pick-six60Pick-sixPick-sixC.Ballard pass intercepted by M.Carroll at TCU40 broken up by K.Carroll QB hurried by K.Hayward M.Carroll return 60 yards to the KU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 4:58 · UCF down 3, takes the leadKeyone Jenkins finds Caden Piening for a 19-yard touchdownTCU at UCF, week 4Q2, 4:58 · UCF 14, TCU 10UCF took the lead in the second quarterUCF took the lead in the second quarterK.Jenkins pass complete short middle to C.Piening caught at TCU04, for 19 yards to the TCU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 14:16 · TCU up 1Jaden Craig finds Ka'Morreun Pimpton for an 8-yard touchdownTCU at Baylor, week 7Q3, 14:16 · TCU 14, Baylor 6▲18%TCU’s chance to win, 46% to 64%▲18%TCU’s chance to win, 46% to 64%J.Craig pass complete short left to K.Pimpton caught at BAYLOR00, for 8 yards to the BAYLOR00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 10:49 · TCU tiedFaletau Satuala intercepts Jaden Craig and returns it 59 yardsBYU at TCU, week 5Q2, 10:49 · TCU 0, BYU 0Faletau Satuala's 5th career interceptionFaletau Satuala's 5th career interceptionJ.Craig pass intercepted by F.Satuala at BYU25 F.Satuala return 59 yards to the TCU16 (E.Small; T.Shelton)▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
TCU lost to North Carolina after being 80% to win; the closest win was against Kansas, down to 8%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave TCU during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · TCU
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · TCUJaden Craig leads TCU with 2,207 passing yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+17 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
TCU fields a limited offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
TCU reads strongest in EPA allowed (top 6%) and rushing EPA allowed (top 7%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where TCU sits at the 9th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
TCU is worth +4.6 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 58th percentile of 133 programs
60% at home, 50% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (28-19 home, 22-22 away). Interval ±3.6.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, TCU has beaten the number by +2.8 more at home than away over 99 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Amon G. Carter Stadium seats 46,000 and has averaged 96% full (44,302, 30 games reported). Visitors cover a median 326 miles to get here since 2018 — 46th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 32% of the 2026 roster (37 of 117 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downEric McAlister is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- CloserJon Denman gets meaningfully more work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict, mostly in real, competitive games: not just mop-up snaps.
- Garbage timeJon Denman sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Deep threatJoseph Manjack is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jeremy Payne and Jon Denman split the carries (87/133 vs 46/133) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Ed Small (WR) and Kari Ashley (TE) split the targets (54/96 vs 42/96) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How TCU actually scores
21st percentile quality, 75th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
TCU’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 49th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 27th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does TCU hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
70th percentile success on standard downs, 10th on passing downs — a 60-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
TCU by half
1st-half offense ranks 19th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 38th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of TCU’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.10; 26th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.29 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How TCU’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), TCU’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 229-play sample) — mid-pack, 83 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), TCU’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 163-play sample) — mid-pack, 19 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
59% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~52% league baseline.
10 of 17 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 14 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
17% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
5 interceptions of 29 disrupted passes (24 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
56 penalties committed, 42 drawn on opponents — ceding 195 yards of field position.
541 penalty yards committed vs. 346 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · TCU
Most similar programs · TCUReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 65°, between 56° and 75° in about 7 in 10 games (27 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 63°, and 8 in 10 ran between 40° and 81° (51 of 53 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.