The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Jimmy Rogers

Washington State, 2025WS2025Iowa State, 2026–nowIS2026now
3-3This season at Iowa State
9-9FBS career

Also coached below FBS: South Dakota State 2023–24

Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
2%Cool seat88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs
See Iowa State’s full coaching history →

Career arc

Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Arizona

Sat Oct 24, 7:30 pm ET ESPN2 · No. 25 Arizona is 5-1 · First meeting between Rogers and Brent Brennan as head coaches · Iowa State’s chance to win: 11% (the site’s model)

His week

He's the right guy for the job”

Iowa State's Jimmy Rogers on new AD Jared Benko

Colorado Springs Gazette headline · Tue Oct 20

12 stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 10–23 from 10 outlets

On the podcasts

Fan threads naming him, Oct 10–23: 4, from 2 people.

Offense: 74th of 138 per play. Defense: 109th.

Offense, per play74thOffense, points per trip inside the 4016thDefense, per play109thDefense, opponents' starting field position121stWorstBest
Offense, per play74th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 4016th of 138Defense, per play109th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position121st of 138WorstBest
Through 6 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Iowa State. The other two rows are where Iowa State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

6 games left

  1. Sat Oct 24at Arizona (5-1)ESPN211%
  2. Sat Oct 31vs. Oklahoma State (4-2)FS147%
  3. Sat Nov 7at Baylor (4-2)16%
  4. Sat Nov 14vs. Cincinnati (4-2)46%
  5. Fri Nov 20at UCF (3-3)FS132%
  6. Sat Nov 28vs. Kansas State (4-2)30%

Percent: Iowa State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Iowa State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

35th41st47thPreseason39thSoutheast Missouri State W 38-10Southeast Missouri State W 38-10W 38-10Southeast Mis…40thIowa L 13-16Iowa L 13-16L 13-16Iowa41stBowling Green W 55-7Bowling Green W 55-7W 55-7Bowling Green41stUtah L 17-31Utah L 17-31L 17-31Utah42ndWest Virginia W 45-42West Virginia W 45-42W 45-42West Virginia43rdBYU L 10-24BYU L 10-24L 10-24BYU43rdBye43rd
  1. Oct 12–18No game3 headlines · 64th of 138Iowa State Should Be Thankful If Jimmy Rogers Gets Them A Bowl Game Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 5–11L 10-24 at BYU8 headlines · 48th of 138What Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers said after losing to BYU Deseret News
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4W 45-42 vs. West Virginia13 headlines · 35th of 138Jimmy Rogers on Iowa State football's win over West Virginia The Des Moines Register
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 17-31 vs. Utah13 headlines · 30th of 138What Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers said after losing to Utah Yahoo Sports
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 55-7 vs. Bowling Green11 headlines · 38th of 138Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers on passing vs. Bowling Green The Des Moines Register
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltL 13-16 at Iowa15 headlines · 32nd of 138Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers vows "to get better" after 16-13 loss at Iowa The Gazette (Cedar Rapids)

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Iowa State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Iowa State

12 stories about him this week

Sat Oct 24: Arizona

37th of 100 FBS head coaches · from 10 outlets and r/CFB

Oct 20: 8Oct 21: 2Oct 22: 2Oct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 8
Oct 20: 8Oct 21: 2Oct 22: 2Oct 17Oct 23Most in a day: 8
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.

“money” hire: isu’s Jimmy Rogers calls new AD Jared Benko “the right guy for the job”

Colorado Springs Gazette +1 Oct 20 · 3 outlets

All 3 articles
Cyclone Fanatic“MONEY” HIRE: ISU’s Jimmy Rogers calls new AD Jared Benko “the right guy for the job”"MONEY" HIRE: ISU's Jimmy Rogers calls new AD Jared Benko "the right guy for the job"Colorado Springs GazetteIowa State's Jimmy Rogers on new AD Jared Benko: "He's the right guy for the job” - The Gazette

What they’re talking about

Quarterback and depth chart3 storiesrising
Press conference and quotes2 storiesfading

176 stories about him this season

from 50 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 20Aug 8 to Aug 14: 16Aug 15 to Aug 21: 18Aug 22 to Aug 28: 10Aug 29 to Sep 4: 18Sep 5 to Sep 11: 24Sep 12 to Sep 18: 10Sep 19 to Sep 25: 12Sep 26 to Oct 2: 16Oct 3 to Oct 9: 10Oct 10 to Oct 16: 10Oct 17 to Oct 23: 12W 38-10 vs Southeast Missouri StateWL 13-16 at IowaLW 55-7 vs Bowling GreenWL 17-31 vs UtahLW 45-42 vs West VirginiaWL 10-24 at BYULAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 24
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 20Aug 8 to Aug 14: 16Aug 15 to Aug 21: 18Aug 22 to Aug 28: 10Aug 29 to Sep 4: 18Sep 5 to Sep 11: 24Sep 12 to Sep 18: 10Sep 19 to Sep 25: 12Sep 26 to Oct 2: 16Oct 3 to Oct 9: 10Oct 10 to Oct 16: 10Oct 17 to Oct 23: 12W 38-10 vs Southeast Missouri StateWL 13-16 at IowaLW 55-7 vs Bowling GreenWL 17-31 vs UtahLW 45-42 vs West VirginiaWL 10-24 at BYULAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 24
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers after Cy-Hawk game loss to Iowa

DBRNews.com +3 Sep 11 · 4 outlets

All 6 articles
Globe GazetteHow are Iowa State football, Jimmy Rogers approaching Cy-Hawk game?The Des Moines RegisterIowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers after Cy-Hawk game loss to IowaThe Des Moines RegisterIowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers on Cy-Hawk game-changing playsThe Des Moines RegisterHow are Iowa State football, Jimmy Rogers approaching Cy-Hawk game?Waterloo-Cedar Falls CourierHow are Iowa State football, Jimmy Rogers approaching Cy-Hawk game?DBRNews.comHow are Iowa State football, Jimmy Rogers approaching Cy-Hawk game?

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes45 storiesfading
Game preview19 storiesrising
Profile and feature14 stories
Win14 storiesfading
Quarterback and depth chart10 storiesrising
Loss6 stories

What was said at each stop

Stories we tracked, by school.

Iowa State122 stories2026 to now

Most about: press conference and quotes, game preview, profile and feature.

Washington State2025not tracked

Could another school hire him? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

We spent our entire time on improving other things from an individual standpoint that our players need to get better at for us to have success
Iowa State Daily · · 2 days before Iowa State's 2026 game against Arizona
See every quote →
Every quote, back to January 2026

In his own words (20)

We spent our entire time on improving other things from an individual standpoint that our players need to get better at for us to have success
Iowa State Daily2 days before Iowa State's 2026 game against Arizona
They came out of timeout, and they just didn’t pump the clock
Iowa State Dailythe day of the 10-24 game
I think the more you talk about things, the worse they are
Iowa State Daily3 days after the 45-42 game
Elevation is like a lot of things; it’s just like heat, I think it’s a little bit of a mindset
Iowa State Daily3 days after the 45-42 game
Overall, he took care of the football
Iowa State Dailythe day after the 45-42 game
We just didn’t play cleanly in certain areas on the defensive side of the ball
Iowa State Dailythe day after the 45-42 game
Us not being able to tackle at all today led to this
Iowa State Dailythe day after the 17-31 game
We came out and shot ourselves in the foot
Iowa State Dailythe day after the 17-31 game
We can’t give up 200 yards on the ground and in the air and expect to win the football game
Iowa State Dailythe day after the 17-31 game
You kind of saw the heartbeat of this team
Iowa State Dailythe day of the 55-7 game
Their most explosive pass play was on Beni
Iowa State Daily3 days after the 38-10 opener
You have to get your players to believe in it. They have to execute. You’ve got to put in the work with them to allow it to happen, and if you can hold people to two scores, you have a great shot at winning in college football when you look at the top scoring defenses in the country
Iowa State Daily4 days before the opener
He’s a guy that backs up what he says with his actions
Iowa State Daily6 days before the opener
He’s a great leader. He’s a part of our leadership council because of how he acts and really how he works, and the guys respect him. So I think any time you add a player like that to your team, it actually uplifts the youth of your team because they see a guy doing it right all the time
Iowa State Daily8 days before the opener
What would you think if I didn’t vote on us? You’d wonder why I’m the head coach at Iowa State
FOX Sports
This is a perfect fit for me. I’m a big people person. I’ve recruited the state for seven years when I was at my prior tenure at South Dakota State, had a prior relationship with (athletic director) Jamie Pollard and felt really confident about the leadership that was in place here
FOX Sports
To say that this is a rebuilding year, I don’t think anybody in the NFL says that, and they have a new roster every year. I don’t buy into that
Heartland College Sports
The mission is winning
Widerightnattylite
If you don’t adapt, you’re going to be dying in this profession
Heartland College Sports
Then there are things along the way that you have to adjust that you know aren’t good enough
Heartland College Sports
Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 38–39, National Program I. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 1 left the program higher than he found it and 4 left it lower. Median stay: 6 seasons.
Every coach hired into a National Program I job since 1990 (55): typically -1.8 after year 1, -2.2 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+8+4what he inherited-4-8hiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10yr 11yr 12Dykes: -7.1 vs. inheritedKingsbury: -5.4 vs. inheritedNarduzzi: +2.6 vs. inheritedGraham: -0.2 vs. inheritedTaylor: -7.9 vs. inheritedRogers: -2.7 vs. inherited▏ Narduzzi +2.6▏ Graham -0.2Rogers -2.7▏ Kingsbury -5.4▏ Dykes -7.1▏ Taylor -7.9
1Sonny Dykes →
→ California, 2013
1–11 · 5–7 · 8–5 · 5–7
4 seasons
-7.1 vs. what he inherited
2Kliff Kingsbury →
→ Texas Tech, 2013
8–5 · 4–8 · 7–6 · 5–7 · 6–7 · 5–7
6 seasons
-5.4 vs. what he inherited
3Pat Narduzzi →
→ Pittsburgh, 2015
8–5 · 8–5 · 5–7 · 7–7 · 8–5 · 6–5 · 11–3 · 9–4 · 3–9 · 7–6 · 8–5 · 5–2
12 seasons
+2.6 vs. what he inherited
4Todd Graham →
→ Arizona State, 2012
8–5 · 10–4 · 10–3 · 6–7 · 5–7 · 7–6
6 seasons
-0.2 vs. what he inherited
5Troy Taylor No page yet
→ Stanford, 2023
3–9 · 3–9
2 seasons
-7.9 vs. what he inherited
Résumé
Previous stops: South Dakota State (2023–2024) · Washington State (2025–2025)
No single prior tenure of 4+ seasons to profile.
The job he took
Followed Matt Campbell (2016–2025), after the season
72–55
Program was climbing in the 2023–2025 run-up.
A National Program I job.
Rivalry record so far
Cy-Hawk vs. Iowa0–1
How new coaches start here
  • Matt Campbell20163–9+0.1
  • Paul Rhoads20097–6+0.4
  • Gene Chizik20073–9-1.9
  • Dan McCarney19953–8-0.7
  • Jim Walden19873–8-2.0
  • Jim Criner19834–7-3.3
  • Donnie Duncan19793–8-3.6
  • Earle Bruce19734–7+2.9

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (6 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-3, outscoring opponents by 48
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-3 after 6 games
11% pushed out over results · of 653 coaches
Were in year 1, after 6 games
1% pushed out over results · of 525 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled101st-highest of 137 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Iowa State
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 3-3, outscoring opponents by 8.0 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Part three · The career

Coaching career

Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder

2026–now
Iowa State
too new to grade yet

Followed Matt Campbell (2016–2025).

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 234 lbs
across 34 of 48 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.9 lbs
#126 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: CA (3), MN (3), AZ (3), FL (2), TX (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.1
position-weighted
Net
-7.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Zane Flores (QB) from Oklahoma State
Biggest loss: Rocco Becht (QB) to Penn State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Interior line via the portal
86%
#6 of 224 stints
Buys Linebacker via the portal
75%
#10 of 225 stints

AI Narratives — “Iowa State — stat check”.

3-3
2025
Washington State Steady
Regional Program I → Regional Program I
Jimmy Rogers held Washington State at Regional Program I for 1 season.

Followed Jake Dickert (2021–2024) · succeeded by Kirby Moore (2026–now).

System Shift, on arrival
Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+8.7 pts
#67 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
+43.9 pts
#2 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
34
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
70
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-36
#7 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 236 lbs
across 33 of 34 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.1 lbs
#168 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Jr
#179 of 255 · middle half
Top states: CA (4), IL (3), SD (3), WA (2), TX (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.6
position-weighted
Net
-7.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Julian Dugger (QB) from Pittsburgh
Biggest loss: John Mateer (QB) to Oklahoma
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Running back via the portal
75%
#20 of 208 stints
Buys Tackle via the portal
60%
#40 of 223 stints
Grows Wide receiver from high school
75%
#204 of 243 stints
6-6

Big games

Pick a job to see its years on their own.

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0-1 against his rivals at Washington State.

Rivalry record
0-1
0.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
1-4
20.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
8-4
all 12 had a line
Rivalry ledger
Washington0-10%
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-2 0.0%
National Program
1-2 33.3%
Regional Program
4-2 66.7%

Signature games

0-3 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
top 102025 vs #4 Ole Miss (L 21-24)2025 vs #18 Virginia (L 20-22)2025 vs #21 James Madison (L 20-24)
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
W
San Diego State · 2025
36-13
Quality opponent
W
Oregon State · 2025
32-8
Quality opponent
W
Toledo · 2025
28-7
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
L
Washington · 2025
24-59
Rival
L
North Texas · 2025
10-59
L
Oregon State · 2025
7-10
Upset

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0-1 against his rivals at Iowa State.

Rivalry record
0-1
0.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
1-1
50.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
2-3-1
all 6 had a line
Rivalry ledger
Iowa0-10%
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-2 0.0%
National Program
1-1 50.0%
Regional Program
1-0 100.0%

Signature games

0-3 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
top 102026 vs #21 Iowa (L 13-16)2026 vs #15 Utah (L 17-31)2026 vs #8 BYU (L 10-24)
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
W
Bowling Green · 2026
55-7
Quality opponent
W
West Virginia · 2026
45-42
Quality opponent
Signature losses
L
Iowa · 2026
13-16
Rival
L
Utah · 2026
17-31
L
BYU · 2026
10-24

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0-2 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
0-2
0.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
2-5
28.6% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
10-7-1
all 18 had a line
Rivalry ledger
Washington0-10%
Iowa0-10%
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-4 0.0%
National Program
2-3 40.0%
Regional Program
5-2 71.4%

Signature games

0-6 vs. AP top 25 · 0-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
top 102025 vs #4 Ole Miss (L 21-24)2025 vs #18 Virginia (L 20-22)2025 vs #21 James Madison (L 20-24)2026 vs #21 Iowa (L 13-16)2026 vs #15 Utah (L 17-31)2026 vs #8 BYU (L 10-24)
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
W
San Diego State · 2025
36-13
Quality opponent
W
Oregon State · 2025
32-8
Quality opponent
W
Toledo · 2025
28-7
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
L
Washington · 2025
24-59
Rival
L
Iowa · 2026
13-16
Rival
L
North Texas · 2025
10-59

Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%FBS avg 41%Washington State2025–20251 seasonIowa State2026–20261 season
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Iowa State’s composite stature has fallen since preseason: 38.3 entering the year to 35.8 through week 8 (National Program II) · #11 of 138 in movement since preseason · top quarter.
Part four · How he builds a team

Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Who followed him
  3. 3Roster ownership
  4. 4Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

No class below is fully his yet — every one was inherited or signed mid-transition, so none counts toward a verdict.

Washington State
2025
#71
Transition
Iowa State
2026
#54
Transition

Transition — he was hired mid-cycle

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Followed him here

Washington State→Iowa State2026
At least 15 players followed him from Washington State to Iowa State.
  • Adlai Lounsbury PK
  • Brody Miller S
  • Bryson Lamb DT
  • Carter Pabst WR
  • Damarius Russell S
  • Donovan Fitzmaurice DT
  • Duhron Goodman S
  • Isaac Terrell DE
  • Jack Janikowski DE
  • Malaki Ta'ase DE
  • Max Baloun DT
  • Sullivan Schlimgen LB
  • Trevor Bindel OL
  • Trillion Sorrell CB
  • Tyrone Cotton III CB

Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

66%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 83 of 126 players. The other 43 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 83Inherited 43

Of his own players on this roster, 41% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 41% of the 83 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

TXTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 4 of 26 signees (15%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 17 states in all. Next: AZ (3).

Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (26 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

23% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (LA 1, OK 1).

1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee
By region
West
11
Midwest
8
South
7
Roster distance from campus (Jack Trice Stadium, IA)
median hometown distance
309 mi
within 100 mi
12%
within 500 mi
54%
beyond 1,000 mi
18%
122 of 126 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.