Washington State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2026–now

Kirby Moore Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

1-8

2025

Jesse Bobbit Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

1-0

2025

Jimmy Rogers Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

6-6

2024

Pete Kaligis Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

0-1

2021–2024

Jake Dickert Steady

Jake Dickert slid the Cougars from National Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−3.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 49% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Chryst’s Pittsburgh run (2012–2014)

8th-best Washington State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Nick Rolovich (2020–2021) · succeeded by Jimmy Rogers (2025).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	3-3	7-6	5-7	8-4
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#60	#60	#63	#62
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	52.9	57.8	60.0	46.0
Coordinators
OC	Craig Stutzmann / Brian Smith	Eric Morris	Ben Arbuckle	Ben Arbuckle
DC	Jake Dickert	Brian Ward	Jeff Schmedding	Jeff Schmedding
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	56	26	42	86
Defense	60	36	67	14
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	52.0	67.3	66.8	43.4
Red-zone pass%	49.0	61.8	56.2	39.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	50.0	45.9	37.1	50.0

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+3.5 pts

#96 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-5.0 pts

#127 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

117

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-80

#135 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 221 lbs

across 34 of 37 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+1.2 lbs

#216 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: CA (11), TX (7), WA (5), LA (2), NJ (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

54.6

position-weighted

Talent lost

59.7

position-weighted

Net

-5.0

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Cameron Ward (QB) from Incarnate Word

Biggest loss: Cameron Ward (QB) to Miami

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Eric Morris → Ben Arbuckle · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 67.3% → 66.8% (-0.5 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 58% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Brian Ward → Jeff Schmedding · 2023

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

219 lbs

6′2″ avg · #189 of 767 · top quarter

Running back

204 lbs

5′11″ avg · #514 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

188 lbs

5′11″ avg · #618 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

239 lbs

6′3″ avg · #585 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

303 lbs

6′5″ avg · #620 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

294 lbs

6′3″ avg · #178 of 753 · top quarter

Edge

249 lbs

6′3″ avg · #124 of 188 · middle half

Linebacker

225 lbs

6′1″ avg · #555 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

189 lbs

6′0″ avg · #429 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tackle from high school

80%

#171 of 223 stints

Grows Quarterback from high school

78%

#178 of 206 stints

Postseason detail2021: Lost to Central Michigan 21-24 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl2022: Lost to Fresno State 6-29 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel

7 NFL Draft picks: Abraham Lucas (2022), Jaylen Watson (2022), Daiyan Henley (2023), Jaden Hicks (2024), Brennan Jackson (2024), Chau Smith-Wade (2024), Kyle Williams (2025)

−3.0

23-20

2020–2021

Nick Rolovich Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

5-6

2012–2019

Mike Leach Steady≈

Mike Leach moved Washington State from Regional Program III to National Program III in 8 seasons.

Averaged a 72% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

+11.7 pts over 8 seasons · top 13% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: June Jones’s SMU run (2008–2014)

5th-best Washington State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Paul Wulff (2008–2011) · succeeded by Nick Rolovich (2020–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	3-9	6-7	3-9	9-4	8-5	9-4	11-2	6-7
Postseason	—	L bowl	—	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#58	#50	#53	#42	#56	#44	#46	#65
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	71.2	75.7	76.0	71.5	64.7	70.2	70.8	77.2
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	Mike Leach	Mike Leach	Mike Leach	Mike Leach	Mike Leach
DC	—	—	Mike Breske	Alex Grinch	Alex Grinch	Alex Grinch	Tracy Claeys	Tracy Claeys / Darcel McBath / Roc Bellantoni (interim; games 6–13)
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	21	46	61	50	68	51	87	74
Defense	67	60	14	62	46	67	24	15
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	68.8	75.5	73.0	68.3	62.9	67.0	65.0	77.0
Red-zone pass%	74.3	75.0	77.3	70.7	59.5	67.5	62.0	78.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	46.2	40.0	48.8	45.9	52.4	22.2	54.8	41.9

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+15.8 pts

#51 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-7.5 pts

#136 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Mike Breske → Alex Grinch · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Alex Grinch → Tracy Claeys · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2013: Lost to Colorado State 45-48 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2015: Beat Miami 20-14 Hyundai Sun Bowl2016: Lost to Minnesota 12-17 National Funding Holiday Bowl2017: Lost to Michigan State 17-42 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl2018: Beat Iowa State 28-26 Valero Alamo Bowl2019: Lost to Air Force 21-31 Cheez-It Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Marquess Wilson (2013), Deone Bucannon (2014), Xavier Cooper (2015), Vince Mayle (2015), Joe Dahl (2016), Shalom Luani (2017), Cole Madison (2018), Luke Falk (2018) + 3 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Gardner Minshew (2018)

+11.7

55-47

2008–2011

Paul Wulff Decliner

Washington State fell from National Program II to Regional Program III under Paul Wulff.

2009 offense ranked in the 1th percentile nationally — historically bad

−17.5 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 1% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Greg Robinson’s Syracuse run (2005–2008)

11th-best Washington State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Doba (2003–2007) · succeeded by Mike Leach (2012–2019).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2008	2009	2010	2011
Record & result
Record	2-11	1-11	2-10	4-8
Postseason	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#66	#63	#65	#68
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.5	51.2	47.9	55.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	3	1	41	36
Defense	20	3	3	24
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	36.1	47.2	45.9	49.5
Red-zone pass%	32.1	50.0	31.8	58.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	29.6	19.2	36.4	28.1

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Brandon Gibson (2009), Zachary Williams (2011)

−17.5

9-40

2003–2007

Bill Doba Steady

Bill Doba slid the Cougars from National Program I to National Program II in 5 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−2.7 pts over 5 seasons · top 48% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tim DeRuyter’s Fresno State run (2012–2016)

1st-best Washington State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Price (1989–2002) · succeeded by Paul Wulff (2008–2011).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Record & result
Record	10-3	5-6	4-7	6-6	5-7
Postseason	W bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	#22	#43	#45	#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	48.7	46.6	52.3	58.5
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	11	59	77	74
Defense	—	90	31	75	33
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	38.5	38.9	48.4	49.8
Red-zone pass%	—	51.5	47.8	55.6	52.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	42.9	28.6	20.0	32.4

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Running back from high school

100%

#196 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2003: Beat Texas 28-20 Bowl

10 NFL Draft picks: Devard Darling (2004), Jason David (2004), Erik Coleman (2004), Karl Paymah (2005), Calvin Armstrong (2005), Hamza Abdullah (2005), Jerome Harrison (2006), Jason Hill (2007) + 2 more

−2.7

30-29

1989–2002

Mike Price Steady

Mike Price moved the Cougars from National Program III to National Program I in 14 seasons.

+8.7 pts over 14 seasons · bottom 37% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tom O'Brien’s Boston College run (1997–2006)

2nd-best Washington State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Dennis Erickson (1987–1988) · succeeded by Bill Doba (2003–2007).

Season	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
Record & result
Record	6-5	3-8	4-7	9-3	5-6	8-4	3-8	5-6	10-2	3-8	3-9	4-7	10-2	10-3
Postseason	—	—	—	W bowl	—	W bowl	—	—	L bowl	—	—	—	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Interior line from high school

100%

#198 of 224 stints

Postseason detail1992: Beat Utah 31-28 Bowl1994: Beat Baylor 10-3 Bowl1997: Lost to Michigan 16-21 Bowl2001: Beat Purdue 33-27 Bowl2002: Lost to Oklahoma 14-34 Rose Bowl

27 NFL Draft picks: Steve Broussard (1990), Tony Savage (1990), Tim Stallworth (1990), Dan Grayson (1990), Jason Hanson (1992), Michael Wright (1992), Drew Bledsoe (1993), Lewis Bush (1993) + 19 more

+8.7

83-78

1987–1988

Dennis Erickson Short tenure

12-10-1

1978–1986

Jim Walden Steady

Jim Walden moved Washington State from Regional Program II to National Program III in 9 seasons.

+6.0 pts over 9 seasons · top 30% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gene Stallings’s Alabama run (1990–1996)

9th-best Washington State tenure of 12 by the numbers.

Followed Warren Powers (1977) · succeeded by Dennis Erickson (1987–1988).

Season	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986
Record & result
Record	3-7-1	3-8	4-7	8-3-1	3-7-1	7-4	6-5	4-7	3-7-1
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1981: Lost to BYU 36-38 Bowl

13 NFL Draft picks: Jack Thompson (1979), Bob Gregor (1980), Scott Pelluer (1981), Paul Sorensen (1982), Pat Beach (1982), Keith Millard (1984), Eric Williams (1984), Erik Howard (1986) + 5 more

+6.0

41-55-4

1977

Warren Powers Short tenure

6-5

1976

Jackie Sherrill Short tenure

3-8

1968–1975

Jim Sweeney Steady

Jim Sweeney slid Washington State from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 8 seasons.

−5.1 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 21% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)