Next game: at Baylor
Baylor’s best edge on Iowa State is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Iowa State offense against Baylor defense
Baylor offense against Iowa State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.20 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 111 / 186 | 59.7 | 1416 | 7.6 | 10 #72 FBS | 5 | 136.0 | 43 | 54.0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 186 pass attempts and 67 carries in 8 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaylen Raynor's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.09 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 9 / 19 | 47.4 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 | 0 | 84.1 | — | 32.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.25 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 131 | 937 #7 FBS | 7.2 | 8 #26 FBS | 75 | 19.8 | 22.1 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — 131 carries, 13 catches and 2 pass attempts in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Flora hits the crease and outruns the angle. Tabb is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry7.4 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.1% 70th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Aiden Flora's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.15 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 28 | 102 | 3.6 | 2 | 10 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| -0.14 EPA/play | — | 8 | 22 | 52 | 2.4 | 0 | 11 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.60 EPA/play | 13 | 7 | 14 | 286 | 20.4 | 2 | 53 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Jr. beats you over the top. Fenner is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception28.4 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume14 bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamal Polite Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.40 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 21 | 246 | 11.7 | 1 | 34 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 21 catches and 4 carries in 8 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Hayes moves the chains on third down. Fenner is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception11.0 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate4.8% bottom 27th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Omari Hayes's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.71 EPA/play | 2 | 4 | 13 | 236 | 18.2 | 1 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Jackson beats you over the top. Fenner is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception19.2 95th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 15th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cody Jackson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 10 | 212 | 21.2 | 1 | 45 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.31 EPA/play | 89 | 7 | 16 | 156 | 9.8 | 0 | 17 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Claiborne moves the chains on third down. Fenner is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception9.5 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ty Claiborne's full player page | ||||||||
| Move TE · +0.46 EPA/play | 37 | 7 | 10 | 113 | 11.3 | 3 | 32 | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. This week's matchup — TE Benetti creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Grover is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception15.3 88th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate30.0% 99th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Vince Benetti's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.64 EPA/play | 19 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 | 12 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 93 | 7 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jack Janikowski's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Bryson Lamb's full player page | |||||||
| Speed Rusher | 88 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate21.4% 90th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Isaac Terrell's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | — | 7 | 13 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Zaimir Hawk's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 98 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Malaki Ta'ase's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 55 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.4 99th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jace J. Gilbert's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate5.0% bottom 19th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Max Baloun's full player page | |||||||
| 89 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 91 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 92 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 7 | 8 | 79 | 42 | 37 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Impact starter — 79 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.3% 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume79 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sullivan Schlimgen's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 8 | 50 | 24 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 50 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Carson Willich's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 34 | 7 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Beau Goodwin's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 7 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Willie Breland III's full player page | |||||||||
| 31 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 40 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cover Corner | 3 | 8 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Seth Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 8 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Duhron Goodman's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Brody Miller's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 18 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View David Coffey's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Drew Surges's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 1 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Keyon Washington's full player page | |||||||
| 5 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 26 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 97 | 8 | 12/14 | 85.7 | 28/28 | 64 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 99 | 7 | 31 | 1359 | 43.8 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 95 | 7 | 8 | 304 | 38 | 50 | 5 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.14 EPA/play | — | 8 | 8 | 245 | 30.6 | 1 | 100 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.25 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 7 | 125 | 17.9 | 1 | 66 |
Biggest plays from Iowa State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Iowa State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 11:08 · Iowa State up 3Aiden Flora runs 75 yards for a touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q4, 11:08 · Iowa State 45, Oklahoma State 357575-yard touchdown run7575-yard touchdown run75-yard touchdown runA.Flora rush right for 75 yards gain to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 0:53 · Oklahoma State down 6, takes the leadDrew Mestemaker finds Wyatt Young for a 7-yard touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q4, 0:53 · Oklahoma State 49, Iowa State 480:53Go-ahead touchdown for Oklahoma State with 0:53 left0:53Go-ahead touchdown for Oklahoma State with 0:53 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Oklahoma State with 0:53 leftD.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to W.Young caught at ISU11, for 7 yards to the ISU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 5:04 · West Virginia down 3, takes the leadMichael Hawkins Jr. finds DJ Epps for a 47-yard touchdownWest Virginia at Iowa State, week 5Q4, 5:04 · West Virginia 42, Iowa State 38▲33%West Virginia’s chance to win, 21% to 54%▲33%West Virginia’s chance to win, 21% to 54%M.Hawkins Jr. pass complete deep right to D.Epps caught at ISU23, for 47 yards to the ISU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Big 12 Conference- Q4, 11:19 · Oklahoma State down 10Drew Mestemaker finds Justin Bowick for a 41-yard touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q4, 11:19 · Oklahoma State 35, Iowa State 38▲31%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 19% to 50%▲31%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 19% to 50%D.Mestemaker pass complete deep left to J.Bowick caught at ISU03, for 41 yards to the ISU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 12:17 · Iowa State down 7, ties itJaylen Raynor finds Easton Miller for a 2-yard touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q2, 12:17 · Iowa State 14, Oklahoma State 14Iowa State tied the game in the second quarterIowa State tied the game in the second quarterJ.Raynor pass complete short right to E.Miller caught at OSU02, for 2 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 7:34 · West Virginia down 3, takes the leadCam Cook runs 8 yards for a touchdownWest Virginia at Iowa State, week 5Q4, 7:34 · West Virginia 35, Iowa State 31Go-ahead touchdown for West Virginia in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for West Virginia in the fourth quarterC.Cook rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ISU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Big 12 Conference
How scary each game got
Iowa State lost at Iowa after being 82% to win; the closest win was against Oklahoma State, down to 3%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Iowa State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Iowa State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Iowa StateSullivan Schlimgen leads Iowa State with 79 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Iowa State fields a limited run-heavy, explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Iowa State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 25%) and red-zone finish (top 36%); the crux lives in field position (O), where Iowa State sits at the 14th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Iowa State is worth +4.3 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 53rd percentile of 133 programs
66% at home, 49% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (33-17 home, 21-22 away). Interval ±3.6.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Iowa State has beaten the number by +1.9 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Jack Trice Stadium seats 61,500 and has averaged 94% full (57,507, 32 games reported). Visitors cover a median 518 miles to get here since 2018 — 44th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 12% of the 2026 roster (15 of 122 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 58 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Short yardageCarson Hansen converts 3rd/4th-and-short at a below-average rate.
- Deep threatChase Sowell is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Aiden Flora and Arnold Barnes split the carries (131/158 vs 27/158) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Omari Hayes (WR) and Vince Benetti (TE) split the targets (31/43 vs 12/43) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Iowa State actually scores
43rd percentile quality, 62nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Iowa State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 72nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 79th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Iowa State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
18th percentile success on standard downs, 31st on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Iowa State by half
1st-half offense ranks 29th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 60th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Iowa State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.11; 44th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.24 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Iowa State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 170-play sample) — mid-pack, 30 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Iowa State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 179-play sample) — mid-pack, 110 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 64% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
7 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Deflections without payoff: 10% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
3 interceptions of 30 disrupted passes (27 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 49 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 45 committed, 32 yards to the good.
387 penalty yards committed vs. 419 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Iowa State
Most similar programs · Iowa StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 43°, between 28° and 51° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 64°, and 8 in 10 ran between 47° and 85° (51 of 52 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.