CFB Zeitgeist Score
54
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 59th percentile.
Hunter Welcing
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
296 REC YDS · 28 REC · 2 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Northwestern for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Tight end · Northwestern
Returning around him
- 68% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 2 Northwestern players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +9 net (17 in / 8 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Northwestern · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #57 · 2026 recruiting class #66
TE · NORTHWESTERN · BIG TEN
Hunter Welcing
- 4
- #84
- 6-3 | 250 lb
- Deer Park, IL
Heisman Heat
#1904
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2024–2025+1380%
Up 1380% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Northwestern
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3-star | 0.8511 | No. 1167 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8511
#1167 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Hunter Welcing
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
75
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- National · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Hunter Welcing
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
10.6
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #384 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 28th
Why it matters
#384 of 531 All FBS WRs at 10.6 yards per reception (28 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 10.6 (28th)
MODERATE · n=28 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving TDs#302 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#395 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 12 vs Michigan — 81 ypr
Result L 22-24
The week the volume broke through — put up 81 yds vs Michigan.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
296Rec yards
28Receptions
2Rec TDs
Per game
24.7Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
320.7Rec yards
30Receptions
2Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 296): needs 404/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 296): needs 704/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 28): needs 32/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 28): needs 52/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 8/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Hunter Welcing's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Northwestern, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
28 87th
YDS
296 85th
YPR
10.6 60th
TD
2 84th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 3-23@ Tulane | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 2 | W 42-7vs Western Illinois | 2 | 34 | 17.0 | 1 | 28 | |
| Wk 3 | L 14-34vs Oregon | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 5 | W 17-14vs UCLA | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 6 | W 42-7vs UL Monroe | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 8 | W 19-0vs Purdue | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 1 | 15 | |
| Wk 9 | L 21-28@ Nebraska | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 11 | L 17-38@ USC | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 12 | L 22-24vs Michigan | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 0 | 36 | Season-high 81 yds |
| Wk 13 | W 38-35vs Minnesota | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 14 | L 13-20@ Illinois | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | 5 | |
| Bowl | W 34-7vs Central Michigan | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 | 13 | |
| Total | 28 | 296 | 10.8 | 2 | 36 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Northwestern4-8HC: David Braun · Balanced, slow tempo
2025Northwestern7-6HC: David Braun · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Northwestern | 28 | 296 | 10.6 | 2 | -- |
| 2024 | Northwestern | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 29 | 316 | 10.9 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 28 | #63/475 | 87th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 296 | #72/475 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #79/475 | 84th pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 10.6 | #190/475 | 60th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 9.6% | #102/468 | 78th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 36 | #91/475 | 81st pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 5.4% | #132/468 | 72nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.7% | #80/468 | 83rd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 4.5% | #106/468 | 78th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.2% | #117/468 | 75th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 4.0% | #199/468 | 58th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 3.5% | #226/468 | 52nd pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 2.4 | 31.0 | 13.6 | 0.2 |
| Road4g | 2.2 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 2.2 | 24.7 | 13.1 | 0.3 |
| Losses6g | 2.5 | 24.7 | 8.5 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 1.8 | 20.3 | 11.9 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 2.8 | 29.0 | 9.7 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
54Mid-pack
Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Hunter WelcingNorthwesternHouston ThomasUTSA· 89% simD'Andre RogersTCU· 88% simDecker DeGraafWashington· 88% sim
Receptions
Rec yards
Long catch
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Luke Lindenmeyer’s 2025 season.
Luke Lindenmeyer
88%match
#2
Jay Rose
83%
#3
Drew Painter
80%
#4
Justin Joly
NFL Rd 5
78%
#5
Ryan Jones
77%
Matches Luke on
Yards / reception
EPA / play (adj)
Reception volume
Differs from Luke on
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Christian Trahan's sophomore season at Houston (2021).
Christian Trahan
84%match
#2
Jett Carpenter
84%
#3
Nick Muse
All-SECNFL Rd 7
82%
#4
Ryan Jones
82%
#5
Camm McDonald
82%
Matches Christian on
Weight
TD rate
Recruiting rating
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
David Braun
Pass share
46.0%
378 pass / 444 run
Plays / game
63.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.1%
255 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
David Braun
Northwestern
2025
David Braun
Northwestern
Played his entire career under David Braun.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownDeer Park, IL
Height6'3"
Weight250 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey84
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNorthwestern
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Northwestern | TE4 | #1904 | #2339 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Northwestern | TE4 | #3486 | #3371 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Northwestern | TE4 | #4504 | #5007 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2021 | Northwestern | TE4 | #3699 | #3720 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Northwestern | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 84 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Deer Park, IL |
| 2024 | Northwestern | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 84 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Deer Park, IL |
| 2023 | Northwestern | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 84 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Deer Park, IL |
| 2022 | Northwestern | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 84 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Deer Park, IL |
| 2021 | Northwestern | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 84 | 6-3 | 250 lb | Deer Park, IL |