Next game: vs Oregon
Ohio State’s best edge on Oregon is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Ohio State offense against Oregon defense
Oregon offense against Ohio State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.53 EPA/play | 10 | 7 | 131 / 192 | 68.2 | 2007 #21 FBS | 10.5 | 19 #10 FBS | 4 | 184.5 | 87 | 74.9 | 10.2 | 6.8 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #12 right now. This week's matchup — QB Sayin operates within the system without forcing anything. Chiles is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt10.9 100th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-0.2 bottom 12th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Julian Sayin's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.51 EPA/play | 13 | 4 | 30 / 51 | 58.8 | 463 | 9.1 | 3 | 2 | 146.7 | 43 | 46.3 | 8 | 3.8 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.15 EPA/play | 25 | 8 | 128 | 637 #42 FBS | 5.0 | 4 | 65 | 16.4 | 12.5 | |
Yards by week → Workhorse· Boom-or-bustBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 128 carries and 13 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Jackson just keeps getting the ball, series after series. II is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight218 lb 82th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate3.1% bottom 29th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bo Jackson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.24 EPA/play | 24 | 6 | 59 | 354 | 6 | 6 #55 FBS | 49 | 5.1 | 13.6 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 59 carries and 2 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Jackson hits the crease and outruns the angle. II is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry6.3 81th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate10.2% 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Ja'Kobi Jackson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.13 EPA/play | 32 | 7 | 41 | 190 | 4.6 | 1 | 22 | — | — | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. 41 carries and 7 catches in 7 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB West just keeps getting the ball, series after series. II is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Weight222 lb 89th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.4% bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaiah West's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +1.00 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 62 | 1067 #2 FBS | 17.2 | 13 #2 FBS | 72 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. Impact starter — 62 catches and 2 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Smith beats you over the top. Wilde is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception17.7 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume62 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Jeremiah Smith's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.19 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 20 | 285 | 14.2 | 2 | 34 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Devin Mccuin's full player page | ||||||||
| +1.33 EPA/play | 15 | 6 | 8 | 252 | 31.5 | 2 | 75 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +1.12 EPA/play | 83 | 7 | 11 | 178 | 16.2 | 2 | 68 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Roberts shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Dehnicke is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt Yards / reception9.1 bottom 31th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.1 96th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nate Roberts's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.80 EPA/play | — | 5 | 11 | 153 | 13.9 | 1 | 49 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.97 EPA/play | 86 | 5 | 9 | 124 | 13.8 | 1 | 28 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Williams shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Dehnicke is the one who creates mismatches lined up all over the formation. Season receipt Yards / reception13.8 78th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 91th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mason Williams's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.54 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 9 | 114 | 12.7 | 0 | 23 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 11 | 3 | 6 | 110 | 18.3 | 0 | 39 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 2 | 8 | 26 | 10 | 5.5 | 3 | 2 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — 26 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate21.2% 58th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kenyatta Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 94 | 8 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 20 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight316 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jason Moore's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 18 tackles in 7 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 5-star, 2024 class View Eddrick Houston's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 4 | 7 | 16 | 9 | 3.5 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Qua Russaw's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View John Walker's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 53 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2023 class View Will Smith Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 9 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 26 | 8 | 43 | 16 | 27 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 43 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.0% 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Payton Pierce's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 5 | 8 | 27 | 13 | 14 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.4% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate16.7% 89th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Riley Pettijohn's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 14 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Christian Alliegro's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 17 | 8 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume21 bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tarvos Alford's full player page | |||||||||
| 20 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 8 | 43 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 43 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Earl Little II's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 8 | 37 | 4 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2024 class View Jaylen McClain's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 7 | 8 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 3.5 | 1 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 30 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume30 84th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jermaine Mathews Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 6 | 7 | 29 | 6 #43 FBS | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 29 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Devin Sanchez's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 25 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate31.2% 95th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jay Timmons's full player page | |||||||
| 28 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 96 | 8 | 12/14 | 85.7 | 34/34 | 70 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 8 | 23 | 993 | 43.2 | 56 | 8 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.54 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 0 | 31 |
| +0.80 EPA/play | — | 5 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 16 |
Biggest plays from Ohio State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Ohio State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:25 · Texas down 6, takes the leadDaylan Smothers runs 1 yard for a touchdownOhio State at Texas, week 2Q4, 0:25 · Texas 24, Ohio State 230:25Go-ahead touchdown for Texas with 0:25 left0:25Go-ahead touchdown for Texas with 0:25 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Texas with 0:25 leftH.Smothers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 14:21 · USC tiedJayden Maiava finds Trent Mosley for a 69-yard touchdownOhio State at USC, week 9Q1, 14:21 · USC 7, Ohio State 06969-yard touchdown pass6969-yard touchdown pass69-yard touchdown passJ.Maiava pass complete short right to T.Mosley caught at USC32, for 69 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q4, 10:30 · Indiana down 12Josh Hoover finds Nick Marsh for a 19-yard touchdownOhio State at Indiana, week 7Q4, 10:30 · Indiana 15, Ohio State 19▲22%Indiana’s chance to win, 9% to 31%▲22%Indiana’s chance to win, 9% to 31%J.Hoover pass complete short left to N.Marsh caught at OSU00, for 19 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN T.Richard pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q2, 0:07 · Ohio State down 4, takes the leadJulian Sayin finds Bo Jackson for a 2-yard touchdownOhio State at Indiana, week 7Q2, 0:07 · Ohio State 10, Indiana 7Ohio State took the lead in the second quarterOhio State took the lead in the second quarterJ.Sayin pass complete short left to B.Jackson caught at IND00, for 2 yards to the IND00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football- Q1, 2:25 · USC up 4Waymond Jordan runs 9 yards for a touchdownOhio State at USC, week 9Q1, 2:25 · USC 14, Ohio State 3▲10%USC’s chance to win, 64% to 74%▲10%USC’s chance to win, 64% to 74%W.Jordan rush left for 9 yards gain to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
- Q3, 14:21 · Indiana down 3D. Chandler fumbles and Ohio State recoversOhio State at Indiana, week 7Q3, 14:21 · Indiana 7, Ohio State 103Indiana’s turnover led to a field goal3Indiana’s turnover led to a field goalIndiana’s turnover led to a field goalJ.Hoover pass complete short middle to D.Chandler caught at IND44, for 19 yards to the IND45 fumbled by D.Chandler at IND44 forced by J.Timmons recovered by OSU E.Little Jr. at IND45, End Of Play▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
How scary each game got
Ohio State lost at Texas after being 98% to win; the closest win was at Indiana, down to 20%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Ohio State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Ohio State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Ohio StateJeremiah Smith leads Ohio State with 1,067 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Ohio State fields an elite offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Ohio State reads strongest in red-zone finish (top 5%) and EPA allowed (top 8%); the crux lives in field position (O), where Ohio State sits at the 58th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Ohio State is worth +6.7 points more at home than on the road.
Top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile of 133 programs
95% at home, 84% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (53-3 home, 32-6 away). Interval ±3.7.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Ohio State has beaten the number by +2.1 more at home than away over 96 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Ohio Stadium seats 102,780 and has averaged 101% full (103,954, 33 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 279 miles trip since 2018, the 26th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 28% of the 2026 roster (32 of 116 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 58 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downBrandon Inniss is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Garbage timeJames Peoples sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Deep threatJeremiah Smith is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- Money downJeremiah Smith is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- CloserBo Jackson gets less work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict: not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.
- Garbage timeBo Jackson does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Deep threatBrandon Inniss is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatCarnell Tate is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Short yardageCJ Donaldson converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
- Deep threatMax Klare is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Bo Jackson and Ja'Kobi Jackson split the carries (128/187 vs 59/187) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Ja'Kobi Jackson produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jeremiah Smith (WR) and Nate Roberts (TE) split the targets (72/86 vs 14/86) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Nate Roberts produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Ohio State actually scores
79th percentile quality, 23rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Ohio State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 92nd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 78th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Ohio State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
84th percentile success on standard downs, 80th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Ohio State by half
1st-half offense ranks 92nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 64th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Ohio State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.26; 87th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.09. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.67 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Ohio State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Ohio State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 194-play sample) — mid-pack, 94 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Ohio State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 216-play sample) — mid-pack, 9 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 64% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
7 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 9% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.
4 interceptions of 43 disrupted passes (39 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 58 penalties committed vs. 47 drawn on opponents, a 61-yard deficit.
429 penalty yards committed vs. 368 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Ohio State
Most similar programs · Ohio StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 49°, between 38° and 59° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 53°, and 8 in 10 ran between 33° and 69° (44 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.