Heisman / Players / Kaytron Allen /Penn State

Kaytron Allen

RB · Penn State · Sr · #13

The Hope Economyas of 2026-06-22

Kaytron Allen carries five-star expectation into Penn State's season — promise, not yet proof.

1,303RUSH YDS15RUSH TD210CARRIES

RUSHING VALUE · WEPA

+0.24

via your WEPA model · 2025 · 201 plays

Penn State fans frame him as a player to bet on — the case is potential, not production.

medium confidence2 sources

Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.

Read the story so far

Kaytron Allen arrived as a 4-star prospect, the No.155 recruit nationally. He lines up at RB for Penn State.

On the field, the headline is 1,303 rush yds, with 15 rush td.

Penn State fans frame him as a player to bet on — the case is potential, not production.

The number to watch: +0.24 — rushing value · wepa.

Why nowHe is squarely in the 2026 hype cycle — projection season.

season totals
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 201 plays
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes
compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 NFL DRAFTDrafted by Washington — Rd 6, Pick 6, #187 overallAs of Jun 22, 2026

Where He Ended Up · NFL

Washington2026 NFL rookie season

#187Rd 6 · Pick 6

Washington2026 NFL rookie season

View college career stats ↓

RB · PENN STATE · BIG TEN

Kaytron Allen

4
#13
5-11 | 217 lb
Norfolk, VA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 97th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#1103

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Hype = tape +2aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 93rd percentile of RBs; the tape says 92nd — the discourse is fair.

Aura — fan perception93rd pctl

Production — on-field92nd pctl

n=31 mentions · cohort: RBs · 140 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_rushing

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

3 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2023

2022

Penn State · RB

—

★

2023

Penn State · RB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2025

Penn State · RB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 6, Pick 6 · #187 overall · Washington

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2022–2025

8672022

9022023

1,3032025

+50%

Up 50% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★★

#155 national

CFB

College

Penn State

2022–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

R6 · #187

Washington · 2026

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB

Class4

Jersey13

Measurements5-11 | 217 lb

HometownNorfolk, VA

Primary teamPenn State

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 155 recruit

Composite rating 0.9385 HighSchool

Signed with Penn State 2022

Origin IMG Academy Bradenton, FL, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2022	4-star \| 0.9385	No. 155 recruit \| HighSchool \| Penn State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file

Latest destination -- --

Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD

Season	Move	Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#1103Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#808Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Penn State

Composite

0.9385

#155 national

NFL Draft

2026 · Rd 6, Pick 6

#187 overall · Washington

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 28 mentions

Confidence MEDIUM

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=28
Rivals · n=1
National · n=4

Only 1 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game

Through 12g

1,303Rush yards

210Carries

15Rush TDs

Per game

108.6Rush yards

18Carries

1Rush TDs

Projected (13g)

1,412Rush yards

228Carries

16Rush TDs

✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 1,303.

✓ Hit 1,000-yard season · finished with 1,303.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 1,303): needs 197/game over remaining 1.

✓ Hit 10 rushing TDs · finished with 15.

✓ Hit 15 rushing TDs · finished with 15.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 15): needs 5/game over remaining 1.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Kaytron Allen already has 3 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #1103 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 29.4% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 155 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Scrimmage yards 1,371 1,303 rush | 68 rec | #12/735 (99th pct)

Rush TD 15 210 carries | #8/739 (99th pct)

Yards/carry 6.2 Per-rush efficiency | #99/735 (87th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Workhorse | Efficient runner | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.

WorkhorseEfficient runnerPassing-game back

Rushing

CAR

210 97th

YDS

1,303 99th

YPC

6.2 87th

15 99th

Receiving

REC

18 83rd

YDS

68 58th

YPR

3.8 14th

0 70th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 46-11vs Nevada	8	43	5.4	1	12
Wk 2	W 34-0vs Florida International	16	144	9.0	1	67
Wk 3	W 52-6vs Villanova	10	86	8.6	1	18
Wk 5	L 24-30vs Oregon	12	54	4.5	1	19
Wk 6	L 37-42@ UCLA	8	50	6.3	2	13
Wk 7	L 21-22vs Northwestern	16	90	5.6	1	18
Wk 8	L 24-25@ Iowa	28	145	5.2	2	30
Wk 10	L 14-38@ Ohio State	21	76	3.6	1	26
Wk 11	L 24-27vs Indiana	19	48	2.5	0	7
Wk 12	W 28-10@ Michigan State	25	181	7.2	2	42	181-yard day
Wk 13	W 37-10vs Nebraska	25	160	6.4	2	50	160-yard day
Wk 14	W 40-36@ Rutgers	22	226	10.3	1	55	Season-high 226 yds
Total		210	1303	6.2	15	67

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2022Penn State11-2HC: James Franklin · Run-leaning

2023Penn State10-3HC: James Franklin · Run-leaning

2025Penn State7-6HC: James Franklin · Run-leaning

Season	Team
2025	Penn State	210	1,303	6.2	15	--
2023	Penn State	172	902	5.2	6	--
2022	Penn State	167	867	5.2	10	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	549	3,072	5.6	31	--

Season	Team
2025	Penn State	18	68	3.8	0	--
2023	Penn State	14	81	5.8	1	--
2022	Penn State	20	188	9.4	1	--
Career	3 loaded seasons	52	337	6.5	2	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 18 68 rec yds | #96/552 (83rd pct)

Usage 29.4% 47.3% rush share | #13/738 (98th pct)

Rushing WEPA +0.24 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #26/362 (93rd pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Rushing	Rushing yards	1,303	#12/735	99th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rush TD	15	#8/739	99th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing	Yards / carry	6.2	#99/735	87th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receptions	18	#96/552	83rd pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving yards	68	#232/548	58th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.24	#26/362	93rd pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 201 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage	Role share	29.4%	#13/738	98th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing	Carries	210	#23/739	97th pct	Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	67	#72/733	90th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving LONG	11	#395/540	27th pct	Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving	Yards / catch	3.8	#471/548	14th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving	Receiving TD	0	#169/552	70th pct	Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage	Rush share	47.3%	#23/738	97th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage	Standard-down usage	32.9%	#19/738	98th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage	2nd-down usage	32.5%	#11/738	99th pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	1st-down usage	32.4%	#23/738	97th pct	Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	3rd-down usage	22.1%	#18/738	98th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage	Passing-down usage	19.6%	#21/738	97th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage	Pass share	6.2%	#111/738	85th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	1	#78/256	70th pct	Turnoversvs FBS RB

ALL-CONF HM

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16

Why he’s here

All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.

What moves him up

A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.

What moves him down

A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home7g	89.3	6.0	1.0
Road5g	136	6.5	1.6

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Wins6g	140	7.8	1.3
Losses6g	77.2	4.6	1.2

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	77.8	6.6	1.2
Weeks 8+6g	139	5.9	1.3

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

83All-Conference

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (97th). Strength: rush yards (96th).

Rush TDs#8 / 349 · 97th pct

15rush

Rush yards#12 / 349 · 97th pct

1303rush

Carries#23 / 349 · 93rd pct

210rush

Yards / carry#38 / 349 · 89th pct

6.2rush

Long run#66 / 349 · 81st pct

67rush

Receptions#93 / 338 · 71st pct

18rece

Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct

1fumb

Rec yards#205 / 338 · 39th pct

68rece

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

EPA / dropback—

awaiting

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_rushing0.24Elite (≥p90) (n=178)Elite (≥p90) (n=184)Elite (≥p90) (n=362)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Kaytron AllenPenn StateJalen BuckleyWestern Michigan· 89% simSieh BanguraOhio· 88% simJoe JacksonKansas State· 86% sim

Rush TDs

97
Allen

87
Buckley

97
Bangura

84
Jackson

Rush yards

97
Allen

89
Buckley

98
Bangura

86
Jackson

Carries

93
Allen

88
Buckley

98
Bangura

86
Jackson

Yards / carry

89
Allen

74
Buckley

82
Bangura

68
Jackson

Long run

81
Allen

81
Buckley

55
Bangura

93
Jackson

Receptions

71
Allen

49
Buckley

54
Bangura

81
Jackson

Fumbles lost

49
Allen

49
Buckley

49
Bangura

49
Jackson

Rec yards

39
Allen

43
Buckley

44
Bangura

63
Jackson

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Speed Merchant

Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kendre Miller’s 2022 season.

Kendre Miller

67%match

TCU · 2022

All-Big 12NFL Rd 3 · Pk 8

Devin Neal

Kansas · 2023

67%

Oscar Adaway III

North Texas · 2020

60%

Eric Gray

Oklahoma · 2022

NFL Rd 5

64%

Zach Charbonnet

UCLA · 2021

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 21

64%

Matches Kendre on

Yards / carry

Total rush EPA (college ability)

Differs from Kendre on

Class year (higher)

Yards / reception (lower)

Height (lower)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Jalen White's senior season at Georgia Southern (2023).

Jalen White

68%match

Georgia Southern · 2023

All-Sun Belt

Kay'Ron Adams

Massachusetts · 2023

66%

Montrell Johnson

Florida · 2024

66%

Diego Pavia

Vanderbilt · 2025

Unitas Golden ArmAll-Conference USA

62%

Jarquez Hunter

Auburn · 2024

All-SECNFL Rd 4

65%

Matches Jalen on

Total rush EPA (college ability)

Yards / carry

Rush TD rate

Differs from Jalen on

Recruiting rating (higher)

Height (lower)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

James Franklin

Pass share

42.0%

339 pass / 469 run

Plays / game

62.2

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.4%

230 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025

1 coach

2022

James Franklin

Penn State

2023

James Franklin

Penn State

2025

James Franklin

Penn State

Played his entire career under James Franklin.

HometownNorfolk, VA

Height5'11"

Weight217 lb

Class4

PositionRB

Jersey13

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

3 entries

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2025)

All-Big Ten

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

3 all-conference honors

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
2025	All-Big Ten	all_conference	Penn State \| Big Ten	RB
2024	All-Big Ten	all_conference	Big Ten	OTHE
2023	All-Big Ten	all_conference	Penn State \| Big Ten	RB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	Penn State	RB4	#1103	#808	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Big Ten
2023	Penn State	RB4	#97	#80	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Big Ten
2022	Penn State	RB4	#74	#67	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W20 snapshot \| Big Ten

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Penn State	Big Ten	RB	4	No. 13 \| 5-11 \| 217 lb \| Norfolk, VA
2024	Penn State	Big Ten	RB	4	No. 13 \| 5-11 \| 217 lb \| Norfolk, VA
2023	Penn State	Big Ten	RB	4	No. 13 \| 5-11 \| 217 lb \| Norfolk, VA
2022	Penn State	Big Ten	RB	4	No. 13 \| 5-11 \| 217 lb \| Norfolk, VA

Kaytron Allen

R07 · Impact starter

+50%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Kaytron Allen

How rival fanbases talk about Kaytron Allen

Awaiting candidate metric

Why the honors trail matters

2025 Season · Final

RB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Speed Merchant

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

3 all-conference honors

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline