cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jalen Berger /UCLA

Jalen Berger

RB · UCLA · Sr

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

364 RUSH YDS · 2 RUSH TD · 81 CARRIES

2026 RETURNINGReturning to UCLA for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to UCLA for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Running back · UCLA

Returning around him

  • 22% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
  • Transfer portal: +12 net (41 in / 29 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

UCLA · Last season: 3-9 · Talent rank #26 · 2026 recruiting class #46

RB · UCLA · BIG TEN

Jalen Berger

  • 4
  • 6-1 | 215 lb
  • Newark, NJ

CFB Zeitgeist Score

33

Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 33rd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#701

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP RB AWARD

Doak Walker

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · rushing yards

2021–2025
88.02021
6832022
93.02023
1782024
3642025

+314%

Up 314% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★
#136 national
CFB
College
3 teams
2021–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionRB
Class4
Jersey--
Measurements6-1 | 215 lb
HometownNewark, NJ
Primary teamUCLA

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 4-star No. 136 recruit
Composite rating 0.9374 HighSchool
Signed with Wisconsin 2020
Origin Don Bosco Prep Ramsey, NJ, USA
Class Profile Context
2020 4-star | 0.9374 No. 136 recruit | HighSchool | Wisconsin

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination -- 2024
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Apr 23, 2024
Season Move Context
2024 Michigan State -> -- 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate
2022 Wisconsin -> Michigan State 3-star | 0.8900 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#701Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#988Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

  • Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (364).

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★☆

to Wisconsin

Composite

0.9374

#136 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jalen Berger

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jalen Berger

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

Yards per carry

4.5

yds

P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries

National rank #51 of 69
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 26th

Why it matters

#51 of 69 P4 + Notre Dame RBs at 4.5 yards per carry (81 carries).

Vs cohort

This player 4.5 (26th)

MODERATE · n=81 cohort 69

  • Also strong
  • Rushing yards (total)#65 / 69

Signature Moment

Week 7 at Michigan State — 89 ypc

Result W 38-13

The week the volume broke through — put up 89 yds at Michigan State.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the rushing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 12g
364Rush yards
81Carries
2Rush TDs
Per game
30.3Rush yards
7Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
394.3Rush yards
88Carries
2Rush TDs

To hit 750-yard season (currently 364): needs 386/game over remaining 1.

To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 364): needs 636/game over remaining 1.

To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 364): needs 1,136/game over remaining 1.

To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 8/game over remaining 1.

To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 13/game over remaining 1.

To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 2): needs 18/game over remaining 1.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jalen Berger's story is about how role and output meet each other. For UCLA, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #701 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 12.2% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 136 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

RB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Scrimmage yards 434 364 rush | 70 rec | #227/735 (69th pct)
Rush TD 2 81 carries | #247/739 (67th pct)
Yards/carry 4.5 Per-rush efficiency | #383/735 (48th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Rushing

CAR
81 72nd
YDS
364 69th
YPC
4.5 48th
TD
2 67th

Receiving

REC
10 61st
YDS
70 59th
YPR
7.0 51st
TD
2 97th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCARYDSAVGTDLONGNote
Wk 1L 10-43vs Utah571.404
Wk 2L 23-30@ UNLV6315.2020
Wk 3L 10-35vs New Mexico2-2-1.001
Wk 5L 14-17@ Northwestern4133.305
Wk 6W 42-37vs Penn State6294.809
Wk 7W 38-13@ Michigan State12897.4124Season-high 89 yds
Wk 8W 20-17vs Maryland19653.409
Wk 9L 6-56@ Indiana5173.4014
Wk 11L 21-28vs Nebraska5193.817
Wk 12L 10-48@ Ohio State4133.306
Wk 13L 14-48vs Washington6264.3014
Wk 14L 10-29@ USC7578.1023
Total813643.9224
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2021Wisconsin8-4HC: Paul Chryst · Run-heavy
2022Michigan State5-7HC: Mel Tucker · Balanced
2023Michigan State4-8HC: Mel Tucker · Balanced
2024UCLA5-7HC: Deshaun Foster · Balanced, slow tempo
2025UCLA3-9HC: Deshaun Foster · Balanced, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2025UCLA813644.52--
2024UCLA481783.70--
2023Michigan State25933.71--
2022Michigan State1486834.66--
2021Wisconsin24883.71--
Career5 loaded seasons3261,4064.310--
SeasonTeam
2025UCLA10707.02--
2024UCLA10595.92--
2023Michigan State5408.00--
2022Michigan State191286.70--
2021Wisconsin2178.50--
Career5 loaded seasons463146.84--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Rushing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.

Role share

How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Receiving work 10 70 rec yds | #217/552 (61st pct)
Usage 12.2% 22.7% rush share | #244/738 (67th pct)
Rushing WEPA +0.15 Opponent-adjusted rush value | #126/362 (65th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Rushing Rushing yards 364 #227/735 69th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rush TD 2 #247/739 67th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Rushing Yards / carry 4.5 #383/735 48th pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receptions 10 #217/552 61st pct Volumevs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving yards 70 #227/548 59th pct Volumevs FBS RB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.15 #126/362 65th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 79 weighted playsvs FBS RB
Usage Role share 12.2% #244/738 67th pct Share of team offensevs FBS RB
Rushing Carries 81 #210/739 72nd pct Volumevs FBS RB
Rushing Rushing LONG 24 #347/733 53rd pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving LONG 15 #296/540 45th pct Metricvs FBS RB
Receiving Yards / catch 7.0 #267/548 51st pct Efficiencyvs FBS RB
Receiving Receiving TD 2 #20/552 97th pct Scoringvs FBS RB
Usage Rush share 22.7% #218/738 71st pct Ground-game usagevs FBS RB
Usage 1st-down usage 15.8% #212/738 71st pct Early-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Standard-down usage 14.6% #226/738 70th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS RB
Usage 2nd-down usage 11.0% #303/738 59th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Passing-down usage 6.7% #365/738 51st pct Known-passing sharevs FBS RB
Usage 3rd-down usage 6.3% #378/738 49th pct Money-down loadvs FBS RB
Usage Pass share 2.9% #318/738 57th pct Air-game usagevs FBS RB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #78/256 70th pct Turnoversvs FBS RB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Home6g24.02.80.2
Road6g36.75.10.2

Win vs Loss

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Wins3g61.05.20.3
Losses9g20.13.50.1

First half vs Second half

YDS/gYPCTD/g
Weeks 1-76g27.83.50.2
Weeks 8+6g32.84.40.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

33Below cohort
8 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: long run (18th).

Fumbles lost#55 / 201 · 49th pct
1fumb
Rec yards#202 / 338 · 40th pct
70rece
Carries#210 / 349 · 40th pct
81rush
Receptions#198 / 338 · 39th pct
10rece
Rush yards#227 / 349 · 35th pct
364rush
Yards / carry#227 / 349 · 33rd pct
4.5rush
Rush TDs#236 / 349 · 26th pct
2rush
Long run#282 / 349 · 19th pct
24rush

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · RB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_rushing0.15Mid (p50–p75) (n=178)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Jalen BergerUCLATae MeadowsTroy· 71% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 68% simKamari MoultonIowa· 67% sim
Fumbles lost
49
Berger
49
Meadows
49
Wright
Rec yards
40
Berger
38
Meadows
10
Wright
53
Moulton
Carries
40
Berger
84
Meadows
92
Wright
86
Moulton
Receptions
39
Berger
45
Meadows
32
Wright
63
Moulton
Rush yards
35
Berger
74
Meadows
84
Wright
84
Moulton
Yards / carry
33
Berger
29
Meadows
33
Wright
62
Moulton
Rush TDs
26
Berger
72
Meadows
62
Wright
62
Moulton
Long run
19
Berger
53
Meadows
49
Wright
33
Moulton

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Balanced Back

Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.

RB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jovantae Barnes’s 2024 season.

Jovantae Barnes

76%match

Oklahoma · 2024

#2

Donerio Davenport

Texas State · 2023

76%
#3

Ari Broussard

Rice · 2021

73%
#4

Darwin Barlow

USC · 2021

73%
#5

Carson Hansen

Iowa State · 2025

All-Big 12
73%

Matches Jovantae on

Yards / carry
Receiving share
Weight

Differs from Jovantae on

Height (higher)

Through 6 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Garrett Groshek’s path through Wisconsin.

Garrett Groshek

100%match

Wisconsin · 2020

#2

Narii Gaither

Gardner-Webb · 2023

97%
#3

Joshua Samuel

Austin Peay · 2022

92%
#4

Jordan Mason

Georgia Tech · 2021

92%
#5

Seth McGowan

Kentucky · 2025

All-Conference USANFL Rd 7
92%

Matches Garrett on

Yards per carry

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Deshaun Foster

Pass share

48.9%

358 pass / 374 run

Plays / game

61.0

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

9.3%

280 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025

2 coaches
2021
Chip Kelly
UCLA
2022
Chip Kelly
UCLA
2023
Chip Kelly
UCLA
2024
Deshaun Foster
UCLA
era →
2025
Deshaun Foster
UCLA

Coaching transition mid-career: Chip Kelly → Deshaun Foster. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownNewark, NJ
Height6'1"
Weight215 lb
Class4
PositionRB

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 UCLA RB4 #701 #988 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Big Ten
2023 Michigan State RB4 #1831 #2333 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | Big Ten
2022 Michigan State RB4 #501 #690 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big Ten
2021 Wisconsin RB4 #1399 #1384 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Big Ten

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 UCLA Big Ten RB 4 6-1 | 215 lb | Newark, NJ
2024 UCLA Big Ten RB 4 6-1 | 215 lb | Newark, NJ
2023 Michigan State Big Ten RB 4 6-1 | 215 lb | Newark, NJ
2022 Michigan State Big Ten RB 4 6-1 | 215 lb | Newark, NJ
2021 Wisconsin Big Ten RB 4 6-1 | 215 lb | Newark, NJ