cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / James Smith /Alabama

James Smith

DL · Alabama · Jr · #23

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

26 TACKLES · 2.5 SACKS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Alabama for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Alabama for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Defensive line · Alabama

Returning around him

  • 43% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • 10 Alabama players drafted to NFL
  • Transfer portal: -7 net (17 in / 24 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Alabama · Last season: 11-4 (AP #11) · Talent rank #2 · 2026 recruiting class #3

DL · ALABAMA · SEC

James Smith

  • 3
  • #23
  • 6-3 | 297 lb
  • Montgomery, AL

CFB Zeitgeist Score

69

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 85th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#3774

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★★★
#28 national
CFB
College
Alabama
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds

#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books

+10009.1% implied

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class3
Jersey23
Measurements6-3 | 297 lb
HometownMontgomery, AL
Primary teamAlabama

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 5-star No. 28 recruit
Composite rating 0.9842 HighSchool
Signed with Alabama 2023
Origin Carver Montgomery, AL, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 5-star | 0.9842 No. 28 recruit | HighSchool | Alabama

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 0 No portal entry on file
Latest destination -- --
Transfer stars -- CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility -- Transfer date TBD
Season Move Context
No transfer portal moves on file for this player.

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#3774Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#3797Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★★★

to Alabama

Composite

0.9842

#28 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on James Smith

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about James Smith

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 11g
26Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
2.5Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.6Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Projected (13g)
31Tackles
7.7Tackles for loss
3.0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 26): needs 27/game over remaining 2.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 26): needs 37/game over remaining 2.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 2.5): needs 1.8/game over remaining 2.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 2.5): needs 3.8/game over remaining 2.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

James Smith is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Alabama's defense, with 2.5 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #3774 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Blue-chip pedigree No. 28 recruit

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 26 16 solo | #1609/4942 (67th pct)
TFL 6.5 Backfield disruption | #340/4972 (93rd pct)
Sacks 2.5 Pass-rush finish | #393/4972 (92nd pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
26 67th
SOLO
16 71st
TFL
6.5 93rd
SACK
2.5 92nd
QBH
2 66th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
1 43rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1L 17-31@ Florida State320.00.00
Wk 2W 73-0vs UL Monroe443.00.003.0 TFL
Wk 6W 30-14vs Vanderbilt100.00.00
Wk 7W 27-24@ Missouri100.00.00
Wk 8W 37-20vs Tennessee721.01.00Season-high 7 tackles
Wk 9W 29-22@ South Carolina221.00.00
Wk 11W 20-9vs LSU110.00.00
Wk 12L 21-23vs Oklahoma100.00.00
Wk 14W 27-20@ Auburn551.01.00
Wk 15L 7-28vs Georgia100.50.50
BowlW 34-24@ Oklahoma000.00.01
Total26166.52.51
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Alabama12-2HC: Nick Saban · Run-heavy
2024Alabama9-4HC: Kalen DeBoer · Run-leaning
2025Alabama11-4HC: Kalen DeBoer · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Alabama26166.52.51----
2024Alabama2093.51.02----
2023Alabama210.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons482610.03.53----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 1 Coverage disruption | #1241/2184 (43rd pct)
QB pressures 2 Quarterback hurries | #647/1878 (66th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 26 #1609/4942 67th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 6.5 #340/4972 93rd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 2.5 #393/4972 92nd pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 1 #1241/2184 43rd pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 2 #647/1878 66th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 16 #1348/4584 71st pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home6g2.50.80.20.0
Road5g2.20.40.20.2

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins8g2.60.80.20.1
Losses3g1.70.20.20.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-75g1.80.60.00.2
Weeks 8+6g2.80.60.40.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

69Solid starter
6 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: tackles for loss (87th). Strength: sacks (85th).

Tackles for loss#340 / 2975 · 87th pct
6.5defe
Sacks#389 / 2975 · 85th pct
2.5defe
QB hurries#634 / 2975 · 72nd pct
2defe
Solo tackles#1348 / 2975 · 53rd pct
16defe
Passes defended#1191 / 2975 · 48th pct
1defe
Tackles#1609 / 2975 · 45th pct
26defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
James SmithAlabamaMaverick BaranowskiMinnesota· 71% simTreylin PayneTexas State· 71% simJackson KuwatchMiami (OH)· 71% sim
Tackles for loss
87
Smith
95
Baranowski
87
Payne
96
Kuwatch
Sacks
85
Smith
89
Baranowski
80
Payne
96
Kuwatch
QB hurries
72
Smith
82
Baranowski
82
Payne
55
Kuwatch
Solo tackles
53
Smith
98
Baranowski
95
Payne
95
Kuwatch
Passes defended
48
Smith
48
Baranowski
67
Payne
48
Kuwatch
Tackles
45
Smith
98
Baranowski
98
Payne
98
Kuwatch

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The 3-Tech Penetrator

Disruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Anthony Holmes Jr.’s 2025 season.

Anthony Holmes Jr.

92%match

Texas Tech · 2025

#2

Tommy Dunn

Kansas · 2024

92%
#3

DJ Hicks

Texas A&M · 2025

92%
#4

Tyler Onyedim

Iowa State · 2022

NFL Rd 3 · Pk 2
90%
#5

DJ Dale

Alabama · 2021

88%

Matches Anthony on

Class year
Height
TFL rate

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to DJ Hicks's junior season at Texas A&M (2025).

DJ Hicks

92%match

Texas A&M · 2025

#2

Anthony Holmes Jr.

Houston · 2024

89%
#3

Jalen Carter

Georgia · 2022

Consensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 9
88%
#4

Ansel Din-Mbuh

TCU · 2025

88%
#5

Jer'Zhan Newton

Illinois · 2022

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 4
85%

Matches DJ on

Class year
Height
TFL rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Kalen DeBoer

Pass share

53.4%

523 pass / 456 run

Plays / game

65.3

15 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

6.8%

384 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

2 coaches
2023
Nick Saban
Alabama
2024
Kalen DeBoer
Alabama
era →
2025
Kalen DeBoer
Alabama

Coaching transition mid-career: Nick Saban → Kalen DeBoer. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMontgomery, AL
Height6'3"
Weight297 lb
Class3
PositionDL
Jersey23

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

1 entries
🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2020)

All-AAC

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

1 all-conference honor

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
2020 All-AAC all_conference Cincinnati | AAC P

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Alabama DL3 #3774 #3797 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | SEC
2023 Alabama DL3 #5788 #5520 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Alabama SEC DL 3 No. 23 | 6-3 | 297 lb | Montgomery, AL
2024 Alabama SEC DL 3 No. 23 | 6-3 | 297 lb | Montgomery, AL
2023 Alabama SEC DL 3 No. 23 | 6-3 | 297 lb | Montgomery, AL