North Dakota State routs Fordham 38-0

Fordham0-20
North Dakota State2-038Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Fargodome, Fargo, N.D. · Crowd 15,212The CW

North Dakota State routed Fordham 38-0.

We had North Dakota State favored. It won.

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota State a 92% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota State was a 41.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

North Dakota State led by 3 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+38+38
Pick-sixNorth Dakota State · Q3 13:56
FinalNorth Dakota State 38-0 FordhamNorth Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won38-0ScoresPick-six
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won38-0ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost0-38ScoresPick-six
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost0-38ScoresPick-six

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

North Dakota State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Dakota State -41.5), at 99% for North Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

North Dakota State scored on 5 of its 9 drives; Fordham on 0 of its 10.

North Dakota State’s drives are teal, Fordham’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Dakota State: Field goal, from 77 yards out to 19Field goalFordham: Punt, from 75 yards out to 63PuntNorth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Fordham: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 43FumbleNorth Dakota State: Turned over on downs, from 57 yards out to 5DownsFordham: Punt, from 94 yards out to 75PuntNorth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownFordham: End of half, from 79 yards out to 83End of halfQ3Fordham: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 80 yards out to 78Interception TDFordham: Interception, from 75 yards out to 64InterceptionNorth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 15 yards out to 0TouchdownFordham: Punt, from 75 yards out to 91PuntNorth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 59 yards out to 0TouchdownFordham: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntNorth Dakota State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 65PuntFordham: Punt, from 70 yards out to 57PuntQ4North Dakota State: Missed field goal, from 77 yards out to 31Missed FGFordham: Interception, from 69 yards out to 20InterceptionNorth Dakota State: End of game, from 78 yards out to 81End of game

Never in doubt.

Box score

North Dakota State 38, Fordham 0

Fordham covered +41.5 by 3.5. The total, 38, stayed under 54.5.

FordhamNorth Dakota StateTotal yardsFordham 135North Dakota State 373135373Passing yardsFordham 116North Dakota State 245116245Rushing yardsFordham 19North Dakota State 12819128First downsFordham 9North Dakota State 22922TurnoversFordham 4North Dakota State 040Time of possessionFordham 26:33North Dakota State 33:2726:3333:27
Team totalsFordhamNorth Dakota State
Total yards135373
Passing12 of 22, 116 yds21 of 26, 245 yds
Rushing26 for 19 yds43 for 128 yds
First downs922
Third down4 of 127 of 14
Fourth down1 of 13 of 4
Turnovers40
Penalties7 for 42 yds4 for 45 yds
Time of possession26:3333:27

Fordham leaders

  • Passing Gunnar Smith 12 of 22, 116 yds, 3 INT
  • Rushing Yohan-Li Louis 9 for 23 yds; Jamell James 4 for 17 yds
  • Receiving John Morris 3 for 37 yds; Chris Tuck 2 for 31 yds

North Dakota State leaders

  • Passing Nathan Hayes 18 of 22, 210 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing DJ Scott 11 for 60 yds, 2 TD; Myles Mitchell 10 for 45 yds
  • Receiving Chris Kiel 4 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Mekhi Collins 4 for 41 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Fordham · 1-11

Rated 244th in our preseason ratings, 244th now.

Three straight losses.

L 26-27 @ Merrimack #229 of 667

lost by 1 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 0-14 @ Georgetown #225 of 667

lost by 14 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 19-37 vs Bucknell #221 of 667

lost by 18 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 14-17 @ Richmond #200 of 667

lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 6-27 vs Lehigh #121 of 667

lost by 21 as a 24.5-point underdog

L 13-30 vs Dartmouth #182 of 667

lost by 17 as a 12.5-point underdog

L 10-24 @ Lafayette #179 of 667

lost by 14 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 26-21 vs Holy Cross #197 of 667

won by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 21-44 @ Colgate #230 of 667

lost by 23 as a 7-point underdog

L 18-41 @ Stony Brook #204 of 667

lost by 23 as a 4-point underdog

L 28-49 vs Monmouth #157 of 667

lost by 21 as a 14.5-point underdog

L 10-66 @ Boston College #61 of 667

lost by 56 as a 34.5-point underdog

Fordham lost 10-66 at Boston College. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Last three games · 2025 season

North Dakota State · 12-1

Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 89th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 28-29 vs Illinois State #106 of 667

North Dakota State lost 28-29 vs Illinois State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 8%, high 99%.

W 62-7 vs St. Thomas (MN) #152 of 667

won by 55 as a 33.5-point favorite

North Dakota State won 62-7 vs St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 48-16 vs Northern Iowa #223 of 667

won by 32 as a 34-point favorite

North Dakota State won 48-16 vs Northern Iowa. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 15-10 @ North Dakota #87 of 667

won by 5 as a 10.5-point favorite

North Dakota State won 15-10 at North Dakota. Chance to win started at 71%, low 41%, high 93%.

W 38-30 vs Youngstown State #144 of 667

won by 8 as a 26.5-point favorite

North Dakota State won 38-30 vs Youngstown State. Chance to win started at 97%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 38-7 @ South Dakota State #94 of 667

won by 31 as a 9-point favorite

North Dakota State won 38-7 at South Dakota State. Chance to win started at 68%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 38-7 @ Indiana State #234 of 667

won by 31 as a 33.5-point favorite

North Dakota State won 38-7 at Indiana State. Chance to win started at 97%, low 88%, high better than 99%.

W 45-17 vs Southern Illinois #130 of 667

won by 28 as a 20-point favorite

North Dakota State won 45-17 vs Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 92%, low 84%, high better than 99%.

W 33-16 @ Illinois State #154 of 667

North Dakota State won 33-16 at Illinois State. Chance to win started at 40%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

W 51-13 vs South Dakota #141 of 667

won by 38 as a 25.5-point favorite

North Dakota State won 51-13 vs South Dakota. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 41-14 vs Southeast Missouri State #188 of 667

won by 27 as a 31.5-point favorite

North Dakota State won 41-14 vs Southeast Missouri State. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 59-3 @ Tennessee State #206 of 667

won by 56 as a 32.5-point favorite

North Dakota State won 59-3 at Tennessee State. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 38-0 @ The Citadel #230 of 667

North Dakota State won 38-0 at The Citadel. Chance to win started at 48%, low 38%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

North Dakota State

  • Wk 1Wvs Jacksonville State33-7

Fordham

  • Wk 1Lvs Colgate14-24

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Dakota State’s chances here.

50-50Model 92% · Line 100%FordhamNorth Dakota State

North Dakota State favored by 41.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota State by 41.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward North Dakota State.

opened −39.5now −41.5

The total fell 3 points.

opened 57.5now 54.5

Spread: −39.5 → −41.5 · Total: 57.5 → 54.5

Home field

North Dakota State is worth +3.9 points (±6.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 47th percentile.

100% at home, 62% on the road against FBS opponents (8-0 home, 5-3 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.9 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,211 miles to get here.

Where next