Matt Drinkall
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 0-1
2025GameAbove Sports BowlL 7-34
As of Fri Oct 23
- Last gameL 14-21 vs. Western Michigan Sat Oct 17
- This season3-4 lost 2 straight
- On track for6-6 regular season
- Nextvs. Miami (OH) Sat Oct 24
- Stature111th of 138 FBS programs
Saturday: vs. Miami (OH)
Sat Oct 24, 1 pm ET 
· Miami (OH) is 4-3 · First meeting between Drinkall and Chuck Martin as head coaches · Central Michigan’s chance to win: 37% (the site’s model)
5 stories this week →
The headlines, Oct 18–23 from 4 outlets
- The Galveston County Daily NewsCentral Michigan head coach Matt Drinkall against Northwestern during the second half of the Game Above Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025.Wed Oct 21
BroBibleCentral Michigan Coach Matt Drinkall Makes Hilarious Reference While Slamming College Football Playoff ExpansionTue Oct 20
Awful AnnouncingCMU's Matt Drinkall goes scorched earth on college football's leaders: 'Prostitute the sport for financial gain'Tue Oct 20
PFSN‘Smoldering Dumpster Fire,’ ‘A Downward Spiral’ — Central Michigan HC Matt Drinkall Rips CFB Leaders Over 24-Team PlayoffTue Oct 20
Fan threads naming him, Oct 18–23: 1, from 1 person.
Offense: 92nd of 138 per play. Defense: 96th.
5 games left
- Sat Oct 24vs. Miami (OH) (4-3)37%
- Wed Nov 4vs. Eastern Michigan (4-4)59%
- Wed Nov 11vs. Sacramento State (1-6)87%
- Wed Nov 18at Buffalo (4-3)42%
- Sat Nov 28at Ball State (2-5)55%
Percent: Central Michigan’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Central Michigan stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
- Oct 12–18L 14-21 vs. Western Michigan0 headlines
- Oct 5–11L 14-31 at Ohio0 headlines
- Sep 28–Oct 4W 41-17 vs. Akron0 headlines
- Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 3-52 at Miami0 headlines
- Sep 14–20 · rebuiltW 24-10 vs. Wyoming0 headlines
- Sep 7–13 · rebuiltW 13-10 vs. Colgate0 headlines
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Central Michigan’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
5 stories about him this week
Sat Oct 24: Miami (OH)
64th of 100 FBS head coaches · from 4 outlets
The Galveston County Daily News Oct 21 · 1 outlet
What they’re talking about
Conference and schedule2 stories
- BroBibleCentral Michigan Coach Matt Drinkall Makes Hilarious Reference While Slamming College Football Playoff ExpansionOct 20
- The Galveston County Daily NewsCentral Michigan head coach Matt Drinkall against Northwestern during the second half of the Game Above Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025. - The Daily NewsOct 21
Press conference and quotes2 stories
- [Dellenger] An evisceration of CFP expansion from CMU coach Matt Drinkall, who says college football is on a "downward spiral" toward a "dumpster fire" and that executives will "prostitute" the sport for financial gainOct 20
- PFSN‘Smoldering Dumpster Fire,’ ‘A Downward Spiral’ — Central Michigan HC Matt Drinkall Rips CFB Leaders Over 24-Team PlayoffOct 20
12 stories about him this season
from 11 outlets
Central Michigan looks to ‘Own the Ugly’ in year two under Matt Drinkall
AOL.com +2 Aug 6 · 3 outlets
What they’re talking about
Press conference and quotes4 stories
- Central Michigan University AthleticsMatt Drinkall Preseason Press Conference (August 6, 2026) - Chippewas All-Access - Powered by SIDEARM ShowcaseAug 6
- WLNS 6 NewsPress conference: Central Michigan’s Matt Drinkall on the opening of fall campAug 6
- [Dellenger] An evisceration of CFP expansion from CMU coach Matt Drinkall, who says college football is on a "downward spiral" toward a "dumpster fire" and that executives will "prostitute" the sport for financial gainOct 20
- PFSN‘Smoldering Dumpster Fire,’ ‘A Downward Spiral’ — Central Michigan HC Matt Drinkall Rips CFB Leaders Over 24-Team PlayoffOct 20
Conference and schedule2 stories
- BroBibleCentral Michigan Coach Matt Drinkall Makes Hilarious Reference While Slamming College Football Playoff ExpansionOct 20
- The Galveston County Daily NewsCentral Michigan head coach Matt Drinkall against Northwestern during the second half of the Game Above Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025. - The Daily NewsOct 21
Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.
In his own words
Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into 13–13, Regional Program IV. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
- Jim McElwain20198–6+0.2
- John Bonamego20157–6-0.1
- Dan Enos20103–9-0.4
- Butch Jones20078–6+1.3
- Brian Kelly20044–7+0.1
- Mike DeBord20002–9-3.1
- Dick Flynn19949–3-0.3
- Herb Deromedi19789–2+1.9
Hot seat
See every job →This season
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Now right where 2025 was at this point.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
- ▲ Hotter3-4, outscored by 63
- ▼ CoolerYear 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
- Were 3-4 after 7 games
- 13% pushed out over results · of 522 coaches
- Were in year 2, after 7 games
- 5% pushed out over results · of 473 coaches
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Poach watch
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
- ▲ HigherPaid $622,450 in 2025, the 3rd percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
- ▲ HigherHis age is not on file · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
- ▼ Lower7-6 over his previous season here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
- The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
- Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
- A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Coaching career
Followed Jim McElwain (2019–2024).
| Season | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||
| Record | 7-6 | 3-4 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | |||
| OC | Jim Chapin / Derek Fulton | Jim Chapin / Derek Fulton | |
| DC | Sean Cronin | Sean Cronin | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||
| Offense | 34 | 28 | |
| Defense | 81 | 22 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||
| 1st-down pass% | 32.5 | 31.0 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 23.1 | 22.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 38.9 | 61.9 | |
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
AI Narratives — “Central Michigan — stat check”.
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-2 against his rivals.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Ran more than the situation called for under Chapin.
782 run and pass snaps at Central Michigan, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
How good is he so far?
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His recruiting, really
His one ranked Central Michigan class of his own finished #95 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 82 of 113 players. The other 31 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 8% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 12% of the 96 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 19 of 52 signees (37%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 16 states in all. Next: CA (7).
52% of his signees come from MI and its 3 border states (IN 3, WI 3, OH 2).
- median hometown distance
- 331 mi
- within 100 mi
- 19%
- within 500 mi
- 56%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 25%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.