The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

Eddie George

Bowling Green, 2025–nowBG2025now
2-5This season at Bowling Green
6-13Career
Program lift
Year 2
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
23%Hot seat16th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs
See Bowling Green’s full coaching history →

Career arc

Part one · This week

As of Fri Oct 23

Win and he’s at 18%. Lose and he’s at 25%.

at Buffalo, Sat Oct 24, 3:30 pm ET ESPN+ · Buffalo is 4-3 · George vs. Pete Lembo: 0-1 · Bowling Green’s chance to win: 35% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Bowling Green wins: 18%, 26th of 137Now: 23%If Bowling Green loses: 25%, 14th of 1370%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Bowling Green wins: 18%, 26th of 137
  • Now: 23%
  • If Bowling Green loses: 25%, 14th of 137
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

23% chance he’s out after the season · 16th of 137 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow15% had they won15% had they wonLoss 25%Win 18%17%19%22%29%31%21%17%23%Pre1L vs. Tarleton StateL2L at NebraskaL3L at Iowa StateL4L vs. South FloridaL5W at Miami (OH)W6W vs. Sacramento StateW7L vs. Ball StateL8Chance to win at Buffalo35%9Chance to win at Western Michigan11%10Chance to win vs. Kent State57%11Chance to win at Toledo10%12Chance to win vs. Massachusetts49%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow15% had they wonLoss 25%Win 18%17%23%Pre367912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1031%
  2. 3-923%
  3. 4-817%
  4. 5-711%
  5. 6-67%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 137 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 29%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 31%, 13th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 21%, 24th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 17%, 27th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 22%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 23%, 16th-hottest of 137 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 4▲ 0-4, outscored by 112

Hottest: 2026, week 4 (31%, 13th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 0-4, outscored by 112

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-5, outscored by 81
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-8 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.7M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 2.4× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-5 after 7 games
19% pushed out over results · of 339 coaches
Were in year 2, after 7 games
5% pushed out over results · of 473 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,676,220 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 2.4× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 15%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

1 headline named him in the last 7 days

82nd of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Oct 18–23

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 126th of 138 per play. Defense: 79th.

Offense, per play126thOffense, points per trip inside the 40133rdDefense, per play79thRun defense122ndWorstBest
Offense, per play126th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 40133rd of 138Defense, per play79th of 138Run defense122nd of 138WorstBest
Through 7 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Bowling Green. The other two rows are where Bowling Green stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

5 games left

  1. Sat Oct 24at Buffalo (4-3)ESPN+35%
  2. Sat Oct 31at Western Michigan (5-2)CBS Sports Network11%
  3. Tue Nov 10vs. Kent State (2-5)57%
  4. Fri Nov 20at Toledo (5-2)ESPN210%
  5. Sat Nov 28vs. Massachusetts (4-3)49%

Percent: Bowling Green’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Bowling Green stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

111th117th123rdPreseason117thTarleton State L 13-20Tarleton State L 13-20L 13-20Tarleton State117thNebraska L 7-56Nebraska L 7-56L 7-56Nebraska116thIowa State L 7-55Iowa State L 7-55L 7-55Iowa State117thSouth Florida L 6-14South Florida L 6-14L 6-14South Florida118thMiami (OH) W 24-20Miami (OH) W 24-20W 24-20Miami (OH)118thSacramento State W 38-10Sacramento State W 38-10W 38-10Sacramento St…118thBall State L 31-32Ball State L 31-32L 31-32Ball State118th
  1. Oct 12–18L 31-32 vs. Ball State0 headlines
  2. Oct 5–11W 38-10 vs. Sacramento State1 headline · 83rd of 138
  3. Sep 28–Oct 4W 24-20 at Miami (OH)0 headlines
  4. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 6-14 vs. South Florida0 headlines
  5. Sep 14–20 · rebuiltL 7-55 at Iowa State2 headlines · 79th of 138
  6. Sep 7–13 · rebuiltL 7-56 at Nebraska4 headlines · 65th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Bowling Green’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Bowling Green

13 stories about him in the last 60 days

Sat Oct 24: Buffalo

from 12 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 29 to Sep 4: 2Sep 5 to Sep 11: 5Sep 12 to Sep 18: 4Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 17 to Oct 23: 1L 13-20 vs Tarleton StateLL 7-56 at NebraskaLL 7-55 at Iowa StateLL 6-14 vs South FloridaLW 24-20 at Miami (OH)WW 38-10 vs Sacramento StateWL 31-32 vs Ball StateLAug 29Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Aug 29 to Sep 4: 2Sep 5 to Sep 11: 5Sep 12 to Sep 18: 4Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 17 to Oct 23: 1L 13-20 vs Tarleton StateLL 7-56 at NebraskaLL 7-55 at Iowa StateLL 6-14 vs South FloridaLW 24-20 at Miami (OH)WW 38-10 vs Sacramento StateWL 31-32 vs Ball StateLAug 29Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games.

FCS Program Upsets Eddie George’s Team in Dramatic Fashion

Heavy +1 Sep 5 · 2 outlets

All 2 articles
HeavyFCS Program Upsets Eddie George’s Team in Dramatic Fashion - heavy.comYahoo SportsFCS Program Upsets Eddie George’s Team in Dramatic Fashion

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes3 stories
Profile and feature2 stories

15 stories about him this season

from 14 outlets and r/CFB

Aug 1 to Aug 7: 1Aug 15 to Aug 21: 1Aug 29 to Sep 4: 2Sep 5 to Sep 11: 5Sep 12 to Sep 18: 4Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 17 to Oct 23: 1L 13-20 vs Tarleton StateLL 7-56 at NebraskaLL 7-55 at Iowa StateLL 6-14 vs South FloridaLW 24-20 at Miami (OH)WW 38-10 vs Sacramento StateWL 31-32 vs Ball StateLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Aug 1 to Aug 7: 1Aug 15 to Aug 21: 1Aug 29 to Sep 4: 2Sep 5 to Sep 11: 5Sep 12 to Sep 18: 4Oct 3 to Oct 9: 1Oct 17 to Oct 23: 1L 13-20 vs Tarleton StateLL 7-56 at NebraskaLL 7-55 at Iowa StateLL 6-14 vs South FloridaLW 24-20 at Miami (OH)WW 38-10 vs Sacramento StateWL 31-32 vs Ball StateLAug 1Oct 23Most in a week: 5
Gold: stories about him each week. W and L: his games. Counted from Aug 1, when tracking began.

FCS Program Upsets Eddie George’s Team in Dramatic Fashion

Heavy +1 Sep 5 · 2 outlets

All 2 articles
HeavyFCS Program Upsets Eddie George’s Team in Dramatic Fashion - heavy.comYahoo SportsFCS Program Upsets Eddie George’s Team in Dramatic Fashion

What they’re talking about

Press conference and quotes3 stories
Profile and feature2 stories

22 stories about him across 2 seasons

2025: 132026: 9Bowling Green20252026Most in a year: 13
2025: 132026: 9Bowling Green20252026Most in a year: 13
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.

Is he on the hot seat? What has he said?

Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Oct 23.

In his own words

We didn’t execute in those situations
Bgfalconmedia · · the day after Bowling Green's 2026 game against Ball State
See every quote →
Every quote, back to July 2026

In his own words (28)

We didn’t execute in those situations
Bgfalconmediathe day after Bowling Green's 2026 game against Ball State
We talked all week long about defensively getting knockback on the edges
Bgfalconmediathe day after the 31-32 game
We know what we do, and we’ve seen it.
Bgfalconmediathe day of the 38-10 game
It’s gonna start to slow down for him
Bgfalconmediathe day after the 24-20 game
That was the mindset all along
Bgfalconmediathe day after the 24-20 game
We certainly feel like there are things to be built on
Bgfalconmediathe day before the Miami (OH) game
The biggest change that I saw was everyone doing their job
Bgfalconmedia2 days after the 6-14 game
We gave up some big runs toward the end due to attrition
Bgfalconmediathe day after the 6-14 game
Our defense gave us an outstanding chance to win that ball game
Bgfalconmediathe day after the 6-14 game
Success for me is going to be no pre-snap penalties
Bgfalconmediathe day before the South Florida game
It’s been handled at the university level and they’re going to be back with the team. They learned a valuable lesson.
Bgfalconmedia2 days before the South Florida game
This is the second straight week where turnovers have come from that position
Bgfalconmediathe day of the 7-55 game
We wanted to go with Austin, because the game at that point was out of hand
Bgfalconmediathe day of the 7-55 game
We were not good against the run today, clearly
Bgfalconmediathe day of the 7-55 game
The game at that point was out of hand, so we wanted to see if we could get the ball moving in a positive direction with Austin in there
Bgfalconmediathe day of the 7-55 game
We got to take this one on the chin, and know this is a part of the process of becoming, and we are going to have hard nights like this
Bgfalconmediathe day after the 7-56 game
So our identity, we want to be a balanced offense
Bgfalconmediathe day before the Nebraska game
We have to execute. It’s that simple
Bgfalconmediathe day of the 13-20 opener
Initially I fought against it, but once I finally decided that this was the route I was going to take, it has really taken off
Bgfalconmedia7 days before the opener
I never thought about getting into coaching but once I really committed to that, just a slew of ideas and inspiration – to inspire, to develop, to discipline, to encourage.
Bgfalconmedia7 days before the opener
That’s pretty much the premise and the foundation of the program; that I am constantly stretching them past their comfort zone to maximize their full potential, to reach their full potential as people
Bgfalconmedia7 days before the opener
(You have to) be a student of the game
Bgfalconmedia7 days before the opener
When life hits you in the mouth and when you’re hit with adversity, how are you going to respond?
Bgfalconmedia7 days before the opener
From an X’s and O’s standpoint, we want to be able to run the ball and stop the run. That’s the first order of business
Bgfalconmedia7 days before the opener
You really have to do a great job of evaluating the players, evaluating the personality, doing a strong vetting process of their backstory
Bgfalconmedia7 days before the opener
I understand the cloth Mike is cut from
Bgfalconmedia
Austyn Dendy [has made] a complete 180 from where he was a year ago
Bgfalconmedia
The expectation level is to get better
Bgfalconmedia
Part two · The hire

Hires into jobs like this

Hired into 13–13, Regional Program IV. Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.

Of the 5 closest comps, 2 left the program higher than he found it and 3 left it lower. Median stay: 4 seasons.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program IV job since 1990 (89): typically -0.9 after year 1, -1.2 after year 2.
band ends: fewer than 15 hires still in the job+4what he inherited-4hiredyr 1yr 2yr 3yr 4yr 5yr 6yr 7yr 8yr 9yr 10Drinkall: +0.1 vs. inheritedDiNardo: -0.1 vs. inheritedCavan: -0.4 vs. inheritedCampbell: -3.6 vs. inheritedBohl: +5.9 vs. inheritedGeorge: -2 vs. inherited▏ Bohl +5.9▏ Drinkall +0.1▏ DiNardo -0.1▏ Cavan -0.4George -2▏ Campbell -3.6
1Matt Drinkall →
→ Central Michigan, 2025
7–6 · 3–4
2 seasons
+0.1 vs. what he inherited
2Gerry DiNardo →
→ Vanderbilt, 1991
5–6 · 4–7 · 4–7 · 5–6
4 seasons
-0.1 vs. what he inherited
3Mike Cavan →
→ SMU, 1997
6–5 · 5–7 · 4–6 · 3–9 · 4–7
5 seasons
-0.4 vs. what he inherited
4Steve Campbell →
→ South Alabama, 2018
3–9 · 2–10 · 4–7
3 seasons
-3.6 vs. what he inherited
5Craig Bohl →
→ Wyoming, 2014
4–8 · 2–10 · 8–6 · 8–5 · 6–6 · 8–5 · 2–4 · 7–6 · 7–6 · 9–4
10 seasons
+5.9 vs. what he inherited
First head-coaching job
No prior college head-coaching tenure on record.
The job he took
Followed Scot Loeffler (2019–2024), after the season
27–41
Program was climbing in the 2022–2024 run-up.
A Regional Program IV job.
Rivalry record so far
Battle of I-75 vs. Toledo1–0
How new coaches start here
  • Scot Loeffler20193–9-4.1
  • Carl Pelini20182–3-3.1
  • Mike Jinks20164–8-3.6
  • Dino Babers20148–6-4.0
  • Dave Clawson20097–6-0.4
  • Gregg Brandon200311–3+2.5
  • Urban Meyer20018–3+2.7
  • Gary Blackney199111–1+2.5
Part three · The career

Coaching career

2025–now
Bowling Green
too new to grade yet

Followed Scot Loeffler (2019–2024).

System Shift, on arrival
Season20252026Trend
Record & result
Record4-82-5
Postseason——
Coordinators
OCTravis PartridgeGreg Nosal
DCBrandon FisherJoe Bowden
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense811
Defense5624
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%26.239.5
Red-zone pass%40.036.6
4th-down go%opp. territory31.027.8
Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-32.3 pts
#202 of 208 · bottom quarter
Defense vs. talent
+14.4 pts
#51 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 227 lbs
across 27 of 38 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.8 lbs
#219 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
So
#249 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: FL (5), OH (4), TN (3), GA (2), CA (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
51.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.6
position-weighted
Net
-1.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Austin Novosad (QB) from Oregon
Biggest loss: Lucian Anderson III (QB) to South Carolina
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Travis Partridge → Greg Nosal · 2026
8th pct11th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 26.2% → 39.5% (+13.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only -6% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brandon Fisher → Joe Bowden · 2026
56th pct24th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Linebacker via the portal
62%
#38 of 225 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
83%
#180 of 223 stints

AI Narratives — “Bowling Green — stat check” and 1 more on the team page.

6-13

Big games

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1-0 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
1-0
100.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
2-6
25.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
8-11
all 19 had a line
Rivalry ledger
Toledo1-0100%
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0-1 0.0%
National Program
1-4 20.0%
Regional Program
4-7 36.4%

ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.

How he plays

Run/pass mix, by field position

Ran more than the situation called for under Partridge.

742 run and pass snaps at Bowling Green, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.

passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%FBS avg 41%Bowling Green2025–2026▲ 5.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered season

How good is he so far?

Too new to grade — in-season movement only
Bowling Green’s composite stature has fallen since preseason: 11.9 entering the year to 10.8 through week 8 (Regional Program IV) · #45 of 138 in movement since preseason · middle half.
Part four · How he builds a team

Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.

  1. 1His recruiting
  2. 2Roster ownership
  3. 3Where he recruits

His recruiting, really

#75Nationally, his own classes

His one ranked Bowling Green class of his own finished #75 nationally.

2025
#94
Inherited
2026
#75
His class

His class — he had the full signing cycleInherited — signed before he arrived

Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.

Roster ownership

Roster ownership

79%His own players

of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 85 of 108 players. The other 23 are holdovers from before he was hired.

Arrived under him 85Inherited 23

Of his own players on this roster, 19% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).

Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 25% of the 107 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.

“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.

Where he recruits

OHTop state

is his biggest recruiting state: 22 of 50 signees (44%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 15 states in all. Next: MI (7).

Where his signees came from, 2025–2026 (50 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)

60% of his signees come from OH and its 5 border states (MI 7, IN 1).

1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee3 signees1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee5 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee2 signees1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee1 signee

Off this map: 4 signees to the west (TX 3, CA) and 1 to the east (CT).

By region
Midwest
31
South
16
Northeast
2
West
1
Roster distance from campus (Doyt L. Perry Stadium, OH)
median hometown distance
160 mi
within 100 mi
19%
within 500 mi
67%
beyond 1,000 mi
10%
102 of 108 roster players with a known hometown (94% coverage)

The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.