Bowling Green: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2025–now

Eddie George Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

6-15

2019–2024

Scot Loeffler Steady

Scot Loeffler held the Falcons at Regional Program IV for 6 seasons.

2019 offense ranked in the 3th percentile nationally — historically bad

−5.5 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 19% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: George O'Leary’s Georgia Tech run (1994–2001)

10th-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Jinks (2016–2018) · succeeded by Eddie George (2025–now).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	3-9	0-5	4-8	6-7	7-6	7-6
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#127	#85	#102	#107	#118	#100
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	40.1	39.8	52.4	51.5	45.4	49.8
Coordinators
OC	Terry Malone	Terry Malone	Terry Malone	Max Warner / Greg Nosal	Max Warner / Greg Nosal	Max Warner / Greg Nosal
DC	Brian VanGorder	Brian VanGorder	Eric Lewis	Eric Lewis	Steve Morrison / Sammy Lawanson	Steve Morrison / Sammy Lawanson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	3	7	9	35	59	64
Defense	5	15	48	46	61	66
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	32.1	38.4	52.2	47.0	43.5	47.6
Red-zone pass%	30.3	39.3	34.0	39.3	47.2	40.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	36.8	41.2	28.6	38.1	43.6	29.4

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-7.0 pts

#141 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+2.2 pts

#89 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-31

#154 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 220 lbs

across 20 of 27 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+0.1 lbs

#230 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: MI (3), FL (3), OH (3), MD (2), PA (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

51.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

54.5

position-weighted

Net

-2.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Connor Bazelak (QB) from Indiana

Biggest loss: Owen Bainbridge (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Terry Malone → Max Warner (co) / Greg Nosal (co) · 2022The offense leveled up

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 45.3% → 45.3% (-0.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 104% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Brian VanGorder → Eric Lewis · 2021The defense leveled up

2-season window either side.

DC: Eric Lewis → Steve Morrison (co) / Sammy Lawanson (co) · 2023The system held

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

216 lbs

6′3″ avg · #294 of 767 · middle half

Running back

209 lbs

5′10″ avg · #307 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

197 lbs

6′2″ avg · #194 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

241 lbs

6′4″ avg · #535 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′4″ avg · #538 of 779 · middle half

D-line

277 lbs

6′3″ avg · #534 of 753 · middle half

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′2″ avg · #402 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

188 lbs

6′0″ avg · #512 of 771 · middle half

Safety

198 lbs

6′1″ avg · #138 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

82%

#154 of 188 stints

Grows Quarterback from high school

75%

#164 of 206 stints

Postseason detail2022: Lost to New Mexico State 19-24 Quick Lane Bowl2023: Lost to Minnesota 24-30 Quick Lane Bowl2024: Lost to Arkansas State 31-38 68 Ventures Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Karl Brooks (2023), Harold Fannin Jr. (2025)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Harold Fannin Jr. (2024)

−5.5

27-41

2018

Carl Pelini Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

2-3

2016–2018

Mike Jinks Steady

Mike Jinks slid Bowling Green from Regional Program II to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−9.4 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tommy Tuberville’s Cincinnati run (2013–2016)

9th-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Dino Babers (2014–2015) · succeeded by Carl Pelini (2018).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2016	2017	2018
Record & result
Record	4-8	2-10	1-6
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#111	#81	#91
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	47.2	49.2	49.3
Coordinators
OC	Kevin Kilmer / Andy Padron	Kevin Kilmer / Andy Padron	Kevin Kilmer / Andy Padron
DC	Perry Eliano / Marcus White	Perry Eliano	Carl Pelini
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	11	57	25
Defense	29	7	14
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	41.2	46.8	43.1
Red-zone pass%	40.4	55.8	57.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	53.5	24.3	32.0

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-10.6 pts

#152 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-26.2 pts

#191 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Perry Eliano (co) / Marcus White (co) → Perry Eliano · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Scott Miller (2019)

−9.4

7-24

2014–2015

Dino Babers Short tenure

2015 offense ranked in the 97th percentile nationally — elite

18-9

2009–2013

Dave Clawson Steady

Dave Clawson held the Falcons at Regional Program II for 5 seasons.

Swung 21.2 points of pass rate — #20 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

−3.9 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 43% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tommy Tuberville’s Ole Miss run (1995–1998)

8th-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Gregg Brandon (2003–2008) · succeeded by Dino Babers (2014–2015).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Record & result
Record	7-6	2-10	5-7	8-5	10-3
Postseason	L bowl	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#90	#89	#90	#94	#85
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	62.3	56.0	51.6	49.4	41.1
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	58	4	20	7	96
Defense	16	29	34	96	68
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	57.8	54.6	47.2	51.8	37.6
Red-zone pass%	53.6	35.1	49.0	45.2	26.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	27.3	46.9	45.9	31.2	25.8

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2009: Lost to Idaho 42-43 Bowl2012: Lost to San José State 20-29 Military Bowl - Presented By Northrop Grumman

1 NFL Draft pick: Christopher Jones (2013)

−3.9

32-31

2003–2008

Gregg Brandon Steady

Gregg Brandon moved the Falcons from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 6 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+3.2 pts over 6 seasons · top 46% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Simmons’s Oklahoma State run (1995–2000)

5th-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Urban Meyer (2001–2002) · succeeded by Dave Clawson (2009–2013).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Record & result
Record	11-3	9-3	6-5	4-8	8-5	6-6
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	#89	#95	#89	#112	#112
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	52.2	50.2	40.7	55.5	50.2
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	89	67	64	43	55
Defense	—	33	41	69	24	58
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	45.8	46.5	28.7	59.8	47.1
Red-zone pass%	—	56.5	47.2	29.9	51.2	43.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	52.2	54.5	31.2	38.1

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2003: Beat Northwestern 28-24 Bowl2004: Beat Memphis 52-35 Bowl2007: Lost to Tulsa 7-63 Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Josh Harris (2004), Scott Mruczkowski (2005), Omar Jacobs (2006), Kory Lichtensteiger (2008)

+3.2

44-30

2001–2002

Urban Meyer Short tenure

17-6

1991–2000

Gary Blackney Steady

Gary Blackney moved the Falcons from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 10 seasons.

+9.6 pts over 10 seasons · bottom 38% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Frank Solich’s Ohio run (2005–2020)

6th-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Moe Ankney (1986–1990) · succeeded by Urban Meyer (2001–2002).

Season	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
Record & result
Record	11-1	10-2	6-3-2	9-2	5-6	4-7	3-8	5-6	5-6	2-9
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1991: Beat Fresno State 28-21 Bowl1992: Beat Nevada 35-34 Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Charlie Williams (1995)

+9.6

60-50-2

1986–1990

Moe Ankney Steady

Moe Ankney slid Bowling Green from Regional Program I to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

−10.5 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 11% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Diaco’s UConn run (2014–2016)

7th-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Dennis Stolz (1977–1985) · succeeded by Gary Blackney (1991–2000).

3 NFL Draft picks: Kyle Kramer (1989), Reggie Thornton (1990), Ron Heard (1990)

−10.5

20-31-3

1977–1985

Dennis Stolz Steady

Dennis Stolz slid the Falcons from National Program II to Regional Program I in 9 seasons.

−7.8 pts over 9 seasons · bottom 11% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bo Pelini’s Nebraska run (2003 (1 game), 2008–2014)

4th-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Don Nehlen (1968–1976) · succeeded by Moe Ankney (1986–1990).

Season	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985
Record & result
Record	5-7	4-7	4-7	4-7	5-5-1	7-5	8-3	8-3	11-1
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	L bowl	—	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1982: Lost to Fresno State 28-29 Bowl1985: Lost to Fresno State 7-51 Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Mark Miller (1978), Jack Williams (1978), Martin Bayless (1984)

−7.8

56-45-1

1968–1976

Don Nehlen Steady

Don Nehlen held Bowling Green at National Program II for 9 seasons.

−3.4 pts over 9 seasons · bottom 30% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Joe Tiller’s Wyoming run (1991–1996)

3rd-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Bob Gibson (1965–1967) · succeeded by Dennis Stolz (1977–1985).

4 NFL Draft picks: Tom Lloyd (1970), Phil Villapiano (1971), Fred Sturt (1973), Tony Bell (1974)

−3.4

53-35-4

1965–1967

Bob Gibson Steady

Bob Gibson slid the Falcons from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

−4.7 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 38% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Paul Haynes’s Kent State run (2013–2017)

2nd-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Doyt Perry (1962–1964) · succeeded by Don Nehlen (1968–1976).

−4.7

19-9

1962–1964

Doyt Perry Steady

Doyt Perry held Bowling Green at National Program I for 3 seasons.

1st-best Bowling Green tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Bob Gibson (1965–1967).

National Program I

24-4-1