The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Scot Loeffler

Followed Mike Jinks. Scot Loeffler held Bowling Green at Regional Program IV for 6 seasons.

27–41

2019–2024 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Bowling Green, 6 seasons

−3.3

Regional Program V → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Bowling Green12.6pt#77 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–3 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Chuck Martin.

Rivalry record

3–3

50.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

8–9

47.1% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Toledo3–350%

The toughest matchupNemesis

vs. Chuck Martin1–4

5 meetings, 2019–2024

’19 L’21 L · blew a 7-pt lead’22 W · erased a 6-pt deficit’23 L’24 L

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–1 0.0%

Power Program

0–4 0.0%

National Program

6–6 50.0%

Regional Program

16–26 38.1%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.24

#249 of 319 · less than most

Defense marginal impact

+0.00

#149 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2019–2024

Bowling Greencaretaker

Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV

Scot Loeffler held Bowling Green at Regional Program IV for 6 seasons.

13th-best Bowling Green tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-7.1 pts

#140 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

+1.6 pts

#91 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Jinks (2016–2018) · succeeded by Eddie George (2025–2026).

Season	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Record & result
Record	3–9	0–5	4–8	6–7	7–6	7–6
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#127	#85	#102	#107	#118	#100
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	40.1	39.8	52.4	51.5	45.4	49.8
Coordinators
OC	Terry Malone	Terry Malone	Terry Malone	Greg Nosal / Max Warner	Greg Nosal / Max Warner	Greg Nosal / Max Warner
DC	Brian VanGorder	Brian VanGorder	Eric Lewis	Eric Lewis	Steve Morrison / Sammy Lawanson	Steve Morrison / Sammy Lawanson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	3	6	9	35	59	64
Defense	5	13	44	46	61	66
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	32.1	38.4	52.2	47.0	43.5	47.6
Red-zone pass%	30.3	39.3	34.0	39.3	47.2	40.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	36.8	41.2	28.6	38.1	43.6	29.4

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-31

#154 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′1″, 220 lbs

across 20 of 27 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

-0.0 lbs

#230 of 255 · less than most

Avg. class year

#46 of 255 · more than most

Top states: MI (3), FL (3), OH (3), MD (2), PA (2)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

51.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

54.5

position-weighted

Net

-2.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Connor Bazelak (QB) from Indiana

Biggest loss: Owen Bainbridge (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Terry Malone → co-Greg Nosal / co-Max Warner · 2022the offense leveled up

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 45.3% → 45.3% (-0.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 104% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Brian VanGorder → Eric Lewis · 2021the defense improved

2-season window either side.

DC: Eric Lewis → co-Steve Morrison / co-Sammy Lawanson · 2023the defense improved

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

216 lbs

6′3″ avg · #294 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

209 lbs

5′10″ avg · #307 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

197 lbs

6′2″ avg · #194 of 791 · more than most

Tight end

241 lbs

6′4″ avg · #535 of 731 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′4″ avg · #538 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

277 lbs

6′3″ avg · #534 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

228 lbs

6′2″ avg · #402 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

188 lbs

6′0″ avg · #512 of 771 · a typical amount

Safety

198 lbs

6′1″ avg · #138 of 346 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

82%

#154 of 188 stints

Grows Quarterback from high school

75%

#164 of 206 stints

Postseason detail2022: Lost to New Mexico State 19–24 Quick Lane Bowl2023: Lost to Minnesota 24–30 Quick Lane Bowl2024: Lost to Arkansas State 31–38 68 Ventures Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Scott Miller (2019), Karl Brooks (2023), Harold Fannin Jr. (2025)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Harold Fannin Jr. (2024)

27–41

The Zeitgeist List · coordinating

Scot Loeffler

Offensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.

How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from coordinator_journeys(); head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from staff_assignments. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.