The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Chuck Martin

Followed Don Treadwell. Chuck Martin raised Miami (OH) from Regional Program IV to Regional Program I.

72–74
2014–now · 1 stint
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In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Miami (OH), 13 seasons (active)
+13.7
Regional Program IV → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%60%Miami (OH)2014–2026▼ 10.2pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Miami (OH)19.8pt#12 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–15 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Luke Fickell.

Rivalry record
5–15
25.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
20–29
40.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Buyout owed
$2,250,000 (est.)
bigger than 25% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Ohio4–736%
Cincinnati1–811%
The toughest matchup
vs. Luke Fickell0–5
5 meetings, 2017–2025
’17 L · blew a 11-pt lead’18 L’19 L · blew a 10-pt lead’21 L’25 L
0% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
0–9 0.0%
National Program
2–23 8.0%
Regional Program
59–36 62.1%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.15
#215 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
+0.36
#28 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2014–now
Miami (OH)builderborderline
Regional Program IV → Regional Program I
Chuck Martin raised Miami (OH) from Regional Program IV to Regional Program I.

10th-best Miami (OH) tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-6.0 pts
#135 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
+22.0 pts
#27 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Don Treadwell (2011–2013).

Season2014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record2–103–96–75–76–68–62–17–66–711–39–57–70–0
PostseasonL bowlL bowlW CFPL bowlL bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#124#74#93#94#128#89#89#87#77#104#82#83#105
Style — pass rate
Pass rate56.746.642.546.746.038.745.948.641.136.949.442.846.4
Coordinators
OCEric Koehler / George BarnettEric Koehler / George BarnettEric Koehler / George BarnettEric Koehler / George BarnettEric Koehler / George BarnettEric Koehler / George BarnettEric Koehler / George BarnettEric KoehlerEric KoehlerPat WelshPat WelshPat WelshGus Ragland
DCMatt PawlowskiMatt PawlowskiJohn Hauser / Matt PawlowskiJohn Hauser / Matt PawlowskiSpence Nowinsky / John HauserSpence Nowinsky / John HauserSpence Nowinsky / John HauserSpence Nowinsky / John HauserBill BrechinBill BrechinBill BrechinBill BrechinBill Brechin
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense47115230402141702624482358
Defense39617766565771514291627016
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%62.346.444.847.647.941.857.452.641.935.449.545.656.2
Red-zone pass%54.345.551.053.346.330.847.645.143.938.858.637.1
4th-down go%opp. territory47.232.332.435.144.720.329.726.122.214.030.8
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
51
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
75
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-24
#141 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 230 lbs
across 42 of 51 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+2.3 lbs
#176 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#206 of 255 · less than most
Top states: OH (8), GA (5), IL (4), IN (4), MO (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.8
position-weighted
Net
-2.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Dequan Finn (QB) from Baylor
Biggest loss: Michael Bonds (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: co-Eric Koehler / co-George Barnett → Eric Koehler · 2021the offense improved
31st pct48th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 49.6% → 47.3% (-2.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 97% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Eric Koehler → Pat Welsh · 2023the system held
48th pct36th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 47.3% → 42.5% (-4.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 68% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Pat Welsh → Gus Ragland · 2026
23rd pct58th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 45.6% → 56.2% (+10.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 14% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: co-Matt Pawlowski → co-John Hauser / co-Matt Pawlowski · 2016the defense improved
50th pct71st pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-John Hauser / co-Matt Pawlowski → co-Spence Nowinsky / co-John Hauser · 2018the defense slipped
71st pct56th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
DC: co-Spence Nowinsky / co-John Hauser → Bill Brechin · 2022the system held
61st pct66th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
211 lbs
6′1″ avg · #445 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
204 lbs
5′10″ avg · #520 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #472 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
248 lbs
6′4″ avg · #277 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
307 lbs
6′5″ avg · #494 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
264 lbs
6′3″ avg · #719 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
228 lbs
6′2″ avg · #393 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
195 lbs
6′1″ avg · #126 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2016: Lost to Mississippi State 16–17 St. Petersburg Bowl2019: Lost to Louisiana 17–27 Lendingtree Bowl2021: Beat North Texas 27–14 Frisco Football Classic2022: Lost to UAB 20–24 HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl2023: Lost to App State 9–13 Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl2024: Beat Colorado State 43–17 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl2025: Lost to Fresno State 3–18 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Quinten Rollins (2015), Sam Sloman (2020), Tommy Doyle (2021), Dominique Robinson (2022), Jackson Kuwatch (2026)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Graham Nicholson (2023)

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